Brexit - The UK and the EU

Fwiffo

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"The UK will vote on whether to remain in the EU on Thursday 23 June, Prime Minister David Cameron has said."

EU referendum: Cameron sets June date for UK vote - BBC News

"The agreement, which will take effect immediately if the UK votes to remain in the EU, include changes to migrant welfare payments, safeguards for Britain's financial services and making it easier to block unwanted EU regulations.

1. an 'emergency brake' on migrants' in-work benefits, with payments phased in during their first four years in a new country, when there are 'exceptional' levels of migration. The UK will be able to operate the brake for seven years.

2. Child benefit for the children of EU migrants living overseas will now be paid at a rate based on the cost of living in their home country - applicable immediately for new arrivals and from 2020 for the 34,000 existing claimants

3. The amending of EU treaties to state explicitly that references to the requirement to seek ever-closer union 'do not apply to the United Kingdom', meaning Britain 'can never be forced into political integration'

4. The ability for the UK to enact 'an emergency safeguard' to protect the City of London, to stop UK firms being forced to relocate into Europe and to ensure British businesses do not face 'discrimination' for being outside the Eurozone."

Britain Stronger in Europe or Vote Leave?

I knew the British government would never forsake the City of London. Too much lobbying power even within UK.

Before folks criticize Britain for putting up borders within a super-federal structure like the EU, even in Canada with semi-autonomous provinces, you can't up and leave from one province to another and expect free health care and benefits on day one. There's a waiting period.

The child benefits of the migrants sounds the most ridiculous to me. So you as a Romanian come over, work a job, get child benefits that you send back home - which if you live in abject poverty could turn your dependents into lords of the slums overnight? Why are people even allowed to get benefits for children that aren't within the country anyway? I thought benefits were to offset expenses needed to raise the child, forcing spouses into the workforce, paying for daycare, etc. The children are supposed to go through school properly to develop into the next generation of law abiding, tax paying citizens - that's why the country allots the benefit.
 

Scherensammler

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Compared to the overall welfare budget the money paid to migrants (who need to work and pay taxes in the UK) is ridiculous.
AFAIK, it was in the election manifesto of the Tories, and it looks good to have that crossed off now.
The UK is not the only country where residents/ EU migrants can claim benefits. Not sure about others, but Germany (of course) is paying a lot of similar child benefits.
Ironically, the UK government is quite happy to pay billions in welfare to some white trash families, Commonwealth migrants, and single mums.
Not to mention extra allowances for alcoholics (this is for real, y'all) and people that are too fat to work.
I think that Cameron and the EU put up a good show. There is nothing in that "deal" that the UK didn't have before.
 

Fwiffo

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AFAIK, it was in the election manifesto of the Tories, and it looks good to have that crossed off now.
Well it was their plank to ward off UKIP, which turned out to be a great popular vote party, but having no bearing on winning actual seats.

Ironically, the UK government is quite happy to pay billions in welfare to some white trash families, Commonwealth migrants, and single mums.
Not to mention extra allowances for alcoholics (this is for real, y'all) and people that are too fat to work.
White trash? What do you mean by white trash? Them Essex girls work...

I heard the jocks drink the most per capita, but they're wanting to separate anyway if UK leaves the EU.
 

Scherensammler

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It's quite weird that Cameron would have taken the opposite position if the EU had told him to fuck off with his demands.
Either way, a big show, the deal was agreed upon long before Cameron made his way to Brussels.
 

Fwiffo

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The EU is wounded now. The last two rounds of expansions brought in grief. With negative interest rates and quantitative easing, they need the British more than the other way around; if only to discourage other self-sufficient members from peeling away. It doesn't help the UK is a relative economic bright spot.

That said even at its peak of power, I don't know if the technocrats in Brussels would have the will to do something so audacious.
 

doghouse

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I'm watching the UK actually ponder leaving the EU with a morbid fascination akin to what I imagine the rest of the world feels watching Donald Trump lead the republican nominating process.
 

Scherensammler

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The EU will do whatever the US want. See all those new trade treaties, TTIP and alike.
All favour the rights of multi-national corporations. And lets not mention giving up EU border control.
So if the UK is exempt from the EU rules and regulations, why should the other countries obey?
The EU has created an artificial life support system in form of the ECB and subventions for farmers.
Which is why people in rural areas like Scotland and Wales will vote to stay in Europe.

I'm sure that Cameron can convince the UK citizens to vote for a stay in the EU. In the upcoming months we'll be bombarded by all kinds of media, telling us how Britain would be like if people vote to leave.
They've applied the same scaremongering tactics before the Scottish independence referendum.
 

formby

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The UK could have got everything it wanted if Cameron hadn't been such a waste of space. As someone else has already said, the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU.

I'm for leaving personally, but the thing needs sorting out once and for all, and if the electorate vote to stay in, then the UK should become a fully participating member at the core, rather than skulking around the periphery.

But my own view is that the UK would prosper better outside the EU than within.
 

doghouse

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Not at all. As someone with wiggish tendencies I believe that power should be closer to the people, with the EU its further away.

The thing is no good, and the reasons for its creation no longer exist.
It totally exists. If anyone thinks for a millisecond the prospect of all out European war doesn't exist anymore they are delusional.

From Britain's perspective though, there is only so much illegal Russian money to launder, and that has all started drying up anyway. There is a big reckoning on the horizon any no one in the UK is remotely paying attention. You need the most stable vanilla boring apparatus around to maintain the status quo to give the UK room to manuever or it will get ugly. The UK and EU absolutely need each other, now more than ever.
 

Thruth

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The UK could have got everything it wanted if Cameron hadn't been such a waste of space. As someone else has already said, the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU.

I'm for leaving personally, but the thing needs sorting out once and for all, and if the electorate vote to stay in, then the UK should become a fully participating member at the core, rather than skulking around the periphery.

But my own view is that the UK would prosper better outside the EU than within.
Has Boris made his pronouncement yet on his opinion?
 

formby

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It totally exists. If anyone thinks for a millisecond the prospect of all out European war doesn't exist anymore they are delusional.

From Britain's perspective though, there is only so much illegal Russian money to launder, and that has all started drying up anyway. There is a big reckoning on the horizon any no one in the UK is remotely paying attention. You need the most stable vanilla boring apparatus around to maintain the status quo to give the UK room to manuever or it will get ugly. The UK and EU absolutely need each other, now more than ever.
There'll be no European war.

As for your second point, the city accounts for less than 20% of GDP (A minor point is that I couldn't give a fuck about the City anyway) so is less reliant upon it as you think, and as they like to boast.

Some advantages are that the UK could set up it own trade agreements, wouldn't have to comply with OJEU regulations. There are countless benefits, there are also risks too as there always are.

The EU are shitting themselves...
 

doghouse

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There'll be no European war.

As for your second point, the city accounts for less than 20% of GDP (A minor point is that I couldn't give a fuck about the City anyway) so is less reliant upon it as you think, and as they like to boast.

Some advantages are that the UK could set up it own trade agreements, wouldn't have to comply with OJEU regulations. There are countless benefits, there are also risks too as there always are.

The EU are shitting themselves...
Keep telling yourself that.

If you aren't worried about 20% of your economy then by all means leave.

You aren't going to compete with the EU on trade deals. The UK is small potatoes and will be treated as such.
 

doghouse

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what europeans are going to war? furthermore, if they were going to war, what would britain's inclusion in the union do to stop that?
The possibility is always there, especially in the Balkans. If the UK leaves, they are less inclined to moderate, and will probably precipitate other exits and the general unravelling which with amply the divisions. This is extremely basic stuff.
 

formby

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Keep telling yourself that.

If you aren't worried about 20% of your economy then by all means leave.

You aren't going to compete with the EU on trade deals. The UK is small potatoes and will be treated as such.
The EU hasn't stopped any wars escalating in Europe, that's self-serving nonsense. What stopped them was the stand-off between the USSR and its satellites and the US and it allies. Militarily, the EU couldn't organise jack-shit as Kosovo proved.

As for the City, most of its business comes from outside the EU anyway, the City is global not Eurocentric. Money has no boundaries, it'll flood to where in can make the most returns and/or is the most secure.

As for trade, there will be no funny stuff regarding trade deals with the EU, the UK market is too important to them. If they do try any funny stuff a quick press of the shoe on the German automotive industry's collective neck will soon put paid to that. Also the UK has quite a trade deficit with the EU plus most of its trade is outside the EU even though its close.

The EU are shitting themselves primarily because if one of the largest economies, and their largest European military power(not that that says much) leaves and is successful, the whole edifice could crumble.

I'm surprised you're taking the position you are. Do you not realise that the EU is an elitist organisation and anti-democratic? Look at the treatment of Ireland over their referendum

Britain will be better of out, however its up to the electorate to make that decision.
 

doghouse

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The EU hasn't stopped any wars escalating in Europe, that's self-serving nonsense. What stopped them was the stand-off between the USSR and its satellites and the US and it allies. Militarily, the EU couldn't organise jack-shit as Kosovo proved.
Obviously, it's economic pandering that keeps it together.

As for the City, most of its business comes from outside the EU anyway, the City is global not Eurocentric. Money has no boundaries, it'll flood to where in can make the most returns and/or is the most secure.

As for trade, there will be no funny stuff regarding trade deals with the EU, the UK market is too important to them. If they do try any funny stuff a quick press of the shoe on the German automotive industry's collective neck will soon put paid to that. Also the UK has quite a trade deficit with the EU plus most of its trade is outside the EU even though its close.
If you leave you will find out rapidly how consequential the UK market is to the outside world.
 

doghouse

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Britain will hold its own, its a rich nation...
Rich-ish. The modern world requires volume. You need more people, which is why negotiating as a block with the EU is far a better proposition. You know I am a committed Anglophile, but this is the reality.
 

Rambo

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The possibility is always there, especially in the Balkans. If the UK leaves, they are less inclined to moderate, and will probably precipitate other exits and the general unravelling which with amply the divisions. This is extremely basic stuff.
the EU has been on the verge of breaking up several times over, most recently just last year, and will be again soon. You cannot maintain a multi-national union wherein every member state gets to make its own economic policy. The EU as it stands is a farce.
 

formby

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Rich-ish. The modern world requires volume. You need more people, which is why negotiating as a block with the EU is far a better proposition. You know I am a committed Anglophile, but this is the reality.
Well, its the filth/sixth biggest economy in the world, so I'd say that's pretty rich.

You've no need to worry though, as the In-campaign will win. It'll be a pretty damn close run thing though.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to the Conservative Party after the referendum...

I'm surprised that Corbyn is supporting the In-campaign, as older Socialists are usually hostile to the EU seeing it as a Neo-Liberal project.

It was the Tories who took Britain into the EEC as it was called then.
 

Rambo

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I'm surprised that Corbyn is supporting the In-campaign, as older Socialists are usually hostile to the EU seeing it as a Neo-Liberal project.
That's surprising to me as well. Maybe he figures there's enough bullshit to worry about on the home front without dealing with the EU as well.

See doghouse doghouse , Corbyn isn't all bad.
 

John Lee Pettimore III

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It's absurd for a region of countries with drastically different economic systems, laws, demographics, cultures, and institutions to share a single currency. It's never going to work. Unemployment among the young is well-into the double digits in almost every country and now they are trying to absorb millions of poor people from a drastically different culture. It's ludicrous. The EU is even more of a pseudo-intellectual aristocracy than the US. Eventually the people are going to overthrow that shit.

The UK needs to GTFO now.
 

John Lee Pettimore III

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what europeans are going to war? furthermore, if they were going to war, what would britain's inclusion in the union do to stop that?
War in "main Europe" (i.e. France, Spain, Germany, the Low Countries) is not going to happen for a long time. The countries are still scarred from the World Wars, they are too intertwined, no longer have an overpopulation of young nationalist males (at least not nationalist for their own countries), most have low defense budgets, and there are 65,000 American troops stationed there.
 

formby

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That's surprising to me as well. Maybe he figures there's enough bullshit to worry about on the home front without dealing with the EU as well.

See doghouse doghouse , Corbyn isn't all bad.
Historically the Tories were for the EEC, viewing it from a business perspective, the Labour movement was therefore naturally hostile. That's flipped around a bit where we now have a hostile Tory party complaining about legislation strangling SMEs whilst the Labour movement being Pro seeing the legislation as protecting workers rights.

The increased business legislation protects large businesses whilst strangling smaller ones. Smaller businesses are where most of the growth comes from. This is one of the reasons why the EU is stagnating.

I have to say, I'm surprised at doggies position.
 

doghouse

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Well, its the filth/sixth biggest economy in the world, so I'd say that's pretty rich.
It's less than a 5th of the US or combined EU economy.

Historically the Tories were for the EEC, viewing it from a business perspective, the Labour movement was therefore naturally hostile. That's flipped around a bit where we now have a hostile Tory party complaining about legislation strangling SMEs whilst the Labour movement being Pro seeing the legislation as protecting workers rights.

The increased business legislation protects large businesses whilst strangling smaller ones. Smaller businesses are where most of the growth comes from. This is one of the reasons why the EU is stagnating.

I have to say, I'm surprised at doggies position.
This is a US problem as well, but that isn't endemic to the Eurozone. One of the biggest problems with Barack "main street over Wall St." Obama is that every single policy decision he makes favors big business to the point if carried on the US will hae a bout 4 MegaCorps running everything and no small business. But this is a sideshow to Brexit and the EU. Britain easily could have rolled back regulation in this last go, but everyone is too worried about darkie.

John Lee Pettimore III John Lee Pettimore III , you sound like everyone right before World War One started. Anyone who underestimates the chances of war does so at their own peril. We are not nearly as evolved as one would hope. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are serious political candidates. You better keep opiating the masses with consumer goods or it will all go south in a hurry.
 

Scherensammler

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It's absurd for a region of countries with drastically different economic systems, laws, demographics, cultures, and institutions to share a single currency.
The EURO is an artificial construct/ currency which helps banks and large corporations and gives them easier control.
Shortly before the Euro became an official currency, people in Germany where spending their Deutschmark money as if it was going to explode the next day.

Trouble is that the US has just as much a weak economy as the EU, as most things are now made in China and even cheaper places. And since the West is struggling (high unemployment, immigration), China is struggling, too and vice versa.
Germany depends on it's exports (mostly cars and machinery), and with that dwindling thanks to a weak Chinese economy, it will struggle to maintain it's payments towards the EU.
Other than Germany, Britain gets quite a huge discount, which is why Germany pays double the amount to the EU than the UK.
What exactly makes the UK economy one of the biggest?

 

prince nez

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So far, every Continental European I've spoken to about the UK leaving the EU simply says "good, fuck off!"

The major objective of British foreign policy for the past 600 years has been to stop Europe unifying under one power - to that end they have fought the French, the Spanish, the Russians and the Germans (mostly the Germans). When the EU came into being it was Britain's worst nightmare. Faced with being on the sidelines against a united Europe, they set about trying to stymie and wreck the thing from the inside.

Now it's all falling apart on its own they want to GTFO.

 

formby

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So far, every Continental European I've spoken to about the UK leaving the EU simply says "good, fuck off!"

The major objective of British foreign policy for the past 600 years has been to stop Europe unifying under one power - to that end they have fought the French, the Spanish, the Russians and the Germans (mostly the Germans). When the EU came into being it was Britain's worst nightmare. Faced with being on the sidelines against a united Europe, they set about trying to stymie and wreck the thing from the inside.

Now it's all falling apart on its own they want to GTFO.

No, mostly the French. They've only fought the Germans twice, they kept out of the Franco-Prussian war. Most people will probably say they hope the British fuck-off, that doesn't surprise me and I don't really blame them, but the power brokers don't, they're shitting themselves...if a major European walks from an already weak EU then the fallout will only make things more problematic. I agree with doggie on that but think his concern about the potential for a European war misguided.

There are only 3 powers that really matter in the EU, Britain, France and Germany even though Britain has been on the sidelines for quite some time due to Cameron's party induced paralysis.

Cameron is a shocking Prime Minister...short termist, terrified of his party and no fucking strategy whatsoever. He could have got everything he wanted if he hadn't been so weak. The other EU leaders know he doesn't want to leave.
 
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