Coronavirus

Fwiffo

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“Australia plans to quarantine its 600 returning citizens for two weeks on Christmas Island - some 2,000km (1,200 miles) from the mainland.”
 

Pauly Chase

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I wonder which provincial officials will lose their heads over this. I watched a clip of mayor of Wuhan giving a public apology at the same time shifting blame on the central government, surprised he is still alive.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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According to my sources, in Hong Kong the paranoia is everywhere, they're blaming Beijing and say it is man made.
 

fxh

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I was up at Box Hill today - Melbourne's most dense Chinese area. 80% of Chinese are wearing face masks. But. Its the ineffectual cheap paper kind.
 

Fwiffo

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I was up at Box Hill today - Melbourne's most dense Chinese area. 80% of Chinese are wearing face masks. But. Its the ineffectual cheap paper kind.
Why are you unnecessarily exposing yourself?
 

Pimpernel Smith

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I was up at Box Hill today - Melbourne's most dense Chinese area. 80% of Chinese are wearing face masks. But. Its the ineffectual cheap paper kind.
I saw a Chinese looking dude with one in The Hague yesterday as I was driving to a meeting.
 

Dropbear

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Local testing should be operational within 4 weeks, which will cut down the lag significantly.

latest evidence suggests that the incubation period in most people is under 6 days, with a few outliers up to 12. That and confirmation that the mortality rate is well below MERS and SARS is very encouraging.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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latest evidence suggests that the incubation period in most people is under 6 days, with a few outliers up to 12. That and confirmation that the mortality rate is well below MERS and SARS is very encouraging.
I read that the mortality rate is around 4% with 25% hospitalized?

Update: a number of our clients are implementing restrictions on those who have been to China and Hong Kong in the last weeks. Also in China we have audits on hold now at the request of the client.
 
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Dropbear

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Published mortality rate based on early case is around 2%, though anecdotally we think it will be 3-4% when the data catches up. Very low compared to something like MERS at 35%.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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What is the mortality rate for normal flu? What if the Chinese authorities are underplaying the mortality rates and it's say 5-10% or more. We'll likely soon find out!

Is the fear with this, due to its virulent nature in being able to transmit, or it could mutate into something more deadly?

Mortality rate of 35% would make in a genuine plague event. End of globalisation as we know it.

Here you go, mortality rates, this is much worse than flu:

Capture.PNG
 
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Dropbear

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If you are actively looking for a reason to to clutch your pearls and worry (not recommended), then look at the r0 value and not mortality (low by any standards).

Otherwise, wash your hands and stop picking your nose. Get a flu shot.
 

The Shooman

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What is the mortality rate for normal flu? What if the Chinese authorities are underplaying the mortality rates and it's say 5-10% or more. We'll likely soon find out!

Is the fear with this, due to its virulent nature in being able to transmit, or it could mutate into something more deadly?

Mortality rate of 35% would make in a genuine plague event. End of globalisation as we know it.

Here you go, mortality rates, this is much worse than flu:

View attachment 33155
I think you are probably correct about all of this.

I hear the chinese authorities are underestimating the cases by half. Inside medical people have apparently let slip to outsiders.
 

Fwiffo

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Who decides the flight crew for these chartered flights to repatriate citizens? I wouldn't want to be stuck 10 plus hours on a plane serving diseased people and then end up in a 14 day quarantine myself.
 

The Shooman

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Yep, I think people are going to be shocked at how this might end.

In short, in Mr. Shih’s view, based on his work suggesting “hundreds of thousands” of potentially infected Wuhan residents left for Shanghai & Guangdong, the number of cases being reported in these economically important provinces (66 and 207, respectively) are likely “grossly” understated, suggesting the impact to growth, globally, will be much worse than currently implied by market valuations.

Some say it will be much worse than that.
 
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Fwiffo

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Can’t say I want to go for dim sum any time soon these days.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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and now a nasty strain of bird flu is said to have started in China also.
As did a number of plague epidemics.

The Chinese regime has extended the New Year holiday until 10th February.

The big risk is mutation and I wager the recorded r0 value is no better than a snapshot of the here and now, before massive spread and possible mutation.
 

Fwiffo

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"Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, my uncle has already passed away, my father is critically ill and my mum and aunt have started showing some symptoms.

We thought the quarantine point my dad and uncle went to was a hospital at the beginning, but it turned out to be a hotel.

There was no nurse or doctor and there was no heater. They went in the afternoon and the staff there served them a cold dinner that evening. My uncle was very ill then, with severe respiratory symptoms and started losing consciousness.

No doctor came to treat him. He and my dad stayed in separate rooms and when dad went to see him at 06:30 in the morning, he had already passed away."

Communist health care at its finest.
 

Fwiffo

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The airlines are stopping planes but cruise ships full of thousands of people in tight quarters are still docking near infected areas? Cruise lines need to re-evaluate their policies.
 

Fwiffo

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"The capital Beijing has banned group dining for events such as birthdays. Cities including Hangzhou and Nanchang are limiting how many family members can leave home each day.

Hubei province has switched off lifts in high-rise buildings to discourage residents from going outside."

No group dinners but table for 2 is okay?
 

Scherensammler

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Strangely enough, a few years back (2012) the German government had a (fictional) scenario with regards to a very similar virus.
"Pandemie durch Virus Modi-SARS“!
Outbreak in South-East Asia (markets) through wild animals. Incubation time 2 to 5 days and up to 14 days. People carrying the virus are immediately infectious.
The 2 people initially bringing the disease into Germany got infected in an Asian country. No vaccine available for the next 3 years (2015).
Fun fact: The same virus was developed and patented by the Pirbright Institute in good old UK and funded by the WEF and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Patent: https://patents.google.com/patent/EP3172319B1/de
Then there was "EVENT 201" where the Bloomberg Institute ran a simulation with a corona virus last year.
 

Dropbear

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We exercise for these sort of responses all the time. Makes a fun change from pandemic flu, chem rad, HE and bio terrorism.
 

Fwiffo

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We exercise for these sort of responses all the time. Makes a fun change from pandemic flu, chem rad, HE and bio terrorism.
In this case what was the outcome of the exercise? I'm inclined to take out a massive loan if it's apocalyptic.
 

Fwiffo

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"In one video posted on Twitter on Friday, several people wearing white protective suits appear to forcibly remove three people from an apartment. One of the three appears to struggle against being led away. Another of the three is seen lying on the floor and gripping a the door frame as if to avoid being taken away. After several minutes of struggle, the person is carried out of the apartment and downstairs.

Sun Chunlan, vice premier of state council, referred to a 'wartime condition' and 'no person or household should be left out' of the system of checks, observation and quarantine to contain the virus."
 

Dropbear

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I’ve already linked you to the Johns Hopkins dashboard for real-time numbers.

That said, ignore the new cases number in China. At this stage, they are not running a PCR confirmation test on each assumed case. The curve *may* be flattening now, but we don’thave enough data to say.
 

Pauly Chase

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Xi made a rare appearance since the whole debacle started, I wonder if the inner circle is shaky though he pretty much got rid of all of his enemies.
 
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