Coronavirus

Dropbear

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That early CDC guidance to NOT wear a cloth mask was an epic fail. To be fair, at that time there was no evidence that they helped. But there was also no evidence that they did not (though I kept hearing rumours of some study showing infections from handling worn masks).

The correct response, in lieu of evidence, should have been neutral. And perhaps ask why the fuck we didn’t do any good research on cloth masks after their widespread adoption and acceptance across Asia following SARS1.
 

fxh

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That early CDC guidance to NOT wear a cloth mask was an epic fail. To be fair, at that time there was no evidence that they helped. But there was also no evidence that they did not (though I kept hearing rumours of some study showing infections from handling worn masks).

The correct response, in lieu of evidence, should have been neutral. And perhaps ask why the fuck we didn’t do any good research on cloth masks after their widespread adoption and acceptance across Asia following SARS1.
The evidence was/is complicated - for non health people - who expect certainty and yes/no answers that don't change over time..

Most early advice - here at least - took into account SUPPLY, supply chains, stockpiles, manufacturing in lock-down etc - and the also the evidence for masks and weighed up it all as a RISK/Benefit-

The risk of health workers running out of masks (and health workers running out of masks poses a risk to us all) vastly outweighs the benefits of the proletariat wearing masks for walking the dog - certainly in early days.

That's changed - not too bloody difficult for a half intelligent person to understand. Surely
 

Thruth

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The evidence was/is complicated - for non health people - who expect certainty and yes/no answers that don't change over time..

Most early advice - here at least - took into account SUPPLY, supply chains, stockpiles, manufacturing in lock-down etc - and the also the evidence for masks and weighed up it all as a RISK/Benefit-

The risk of health workers running out of masks (and health workers running out of masks poses a risk to us all) vastly outweighs the benefits of the proletariat wearing masks for walking the dog - certainly in early days.

That's changed - not too bloody difficult for a half intelligent person to understand. Surely

That early CDC guidance to NOT wear a cloth mask was an epic fail. To be fair, at that time there was no evidence that they helped. But there was also no evidence that they did not (though I kept hearing rumours of some study showing infections from handling worn masks).

The correct response, in lieu of evidence, should have been neutral. And perhaps ask why the fuck we didn’t do any good research on cloth masks after their widespread adoption and acceptance across Asia following SARS1.
SARS had limited impact in most places so “what was learned” was ignored or was never really in leaned the context of COVID’s width and breadth.

Mistakes in theorizing, supply chain etc. A perfect example is until late last week it was an N-95 and visor for all AGPs in dentistry most places and then a settling time based on air exchanges per hour and 120 minutes if you had no clue.

Now it is N-95 for a narrow range of AGPs, level 3 for most AGPs (with visor) and 15 minute settle time.

But that does not make the media because Fauci did not say it.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Mistakes in theorizing, supply chain etc. A perfect example is until late last week it was an N-95 and visor for all AGPs in dentistry most places and then a settling time based on air exchanges per hour and 120 minutes if you had no clue.
I managed to get to my orthodontist yesterday, the first time since February, my power brace was disintegrating. They were masked, visor and screened up between work spaces.
 

fxh

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Taiwan seems the only ones who learnt from SARS and perhaps Hong Kong. But y’know China and USA.
 

Fwiffo

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Taiwan seems the only ones who learnt from SARS and perhaps Hong Kong. But y’know China and USA.
What's wrong with China? They will lock you down and post armed guards 24/7 to quarantine you. Ineffective bureaucrats and officials resign and/or disappear. They make all the bloody PPE down the street. They can build a field hospital in a few days. And there is no expectation to privacy when it comes to contact tracing so if they can graft something on your mobile or in your brain they will.

They're the most effective - next to North Korea.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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What's wrong with China? They will lock you down and post armed guards 24/7 to quarantine you. Ineffective bureaucrats and officials resign and/or disappear. They make all the bloody PPE down the street. They can build a field hospital in a few days. And there is no expectation to privacy when it comes to contact tracing so if they can graft something on your mobile or in your brain they will.

They're the most effective - next to North Korea.
Don't confuse efficiency with effectiveness.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Interesting. I didn’t know adults did braces.
Neither did I, but hailing from that dentistry challenged Isle, I never bothered with getting my chomps fixed as a kid. Over the years I looked at bridges with caps and implants and the cost was always enough to make me think again. And someone in the dentistry profession told me after about 34 you couldn't do braces.

Getting one of my kids teeth done, I noticed there were indeed people my age getting the full Monty. You can get away with stuff in your youth, but when you get older teeth matter.

It comes with a cost: I've a serious amount of metal in my mouth at present. It takes awhile to get use to and then when you get the monthly readjustment it's a bit uncomfortable for a several days. They've turned, put together and with a bit more of a gap, one implant and I'm done. I will have a good set of teeth that will look natural and not fake. It will be nearly a year in total time frame. The costs are reasonable, about Euro 2,500 in total.
 

Dropbear

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Interesting. I always got compliments on my perfectly straight teeth, growing up. Then one day in my early twenties I looked in the mirror and realised my new wisdom teeth had pushed everything in and one lower tooth had partially receded to make room. I just thought it was something I’d have to live with or get major surgery to fix. I might ask the dentist if it’s worth fixing, next visit.
 

Dropbear

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Since we are over covid and talking dentistry, I’ll ask: is it worth trying to get this little bugger straitened?

72FDE48E-D6F8-4980-A115-3EAAFE532CB3.jpeg
 

Journeyman

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While we're talking about dentistry instead of viral pandemic, I'll note that if you want good teeth, it's a really good idea to breathe through your nose, rather than your mouth, and to have your tongue resting up on the roof of your mouth.

Obviously, if you're an adult, it's probably too late for that to have effect but if you have kids, pay attention to their breathing and get them to breathe through their nose, rather than their mouth.
 

robertito

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Since we are over covid and talking dentistry, I’ll ask: is it worth trying to get this little bugger straitened?

View attachment 33983
I paid Eur 3,000 for my braces 10 years ago. I went for ceramic (transparent) rather than metal ones (500 euros cheaper)

I don't think that these teeth are difficult to fix based in what they did with my mouth.
 

güero

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How entirely unsurprising, Part 237:
The coronavirus was present in two large Italian cities in December, more than two months before the first case was detected, a national health institute study of waste water has found.
That suggests the virus appeared in Italy around the same time it was first reported in China.
Of course it was. It also was present everywhere else. It's a humongous nothingburger.

Some more random facts:
Infection fatality rate may be less than 0.1%. At worst it is <0.36% based on a German study. Eyeball average for all studies seems to be 0.1-0.2%.

Apparently 40-60% of people are basically immune because of the similarity to "regular" (lol) corona viruses: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3

Median/average age of "corona deaths" is above 80 based on studies in ten different countries. Only 4% of "corona deaths" did not have serious preconditions.

30-60% of deaths are in nursing homes, in Canada it is even claimed to be 80%: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...494ad4-947f-11ea-87a3-22d324235636_story.html
As it was widely reported especially from Spain earlier this year, this is mostly a lockdown effect (e.g. all the Eastern European nurses left and went home, many patients then died from dehydration etc.).

That the lockdown killed thousands of people is e.g. confirmed for the UK: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...dwales28december2019to1may2020/technicalannex
So for the very, very few countries that temporarily did report excess mortality, a fair share of this is 100% most definitely not related to corona.

All those exponential/log-growth corona charts are still bullshit, because no matter where you look (US, France, Switzerland, Germany, Japan, UK), the test-positive rate remained pretty much constant (at varying levels across countries, but nevertheless constant).

The countries without panic-based lockdown etc. actions like Japan, South Korea, Sweden, etc. did not have a worse outcome than countries that did panic. In fact even the clowns at the WHO suddenly flip-flopped a couple of weeks ago and praised Sweden as a model case for how to deal with corona.

🤡🤡🤡
 

sirloin

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:jchan:

Sweden has sadly 5-6 times as many deaths, as the other scandinavian countries.
Even Anders Tegnell from Folkhälsmyndigheden, who was very sure in their choice, has admitted that they have made costly mistakes.
 

güero

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Of course he has, because unlike most people in charge he seems to have some integrity and honor. And he also continues to believe in the approach he has recommended initially and as far as I know has changed next to nothing.

In Sweden ~50% are nursing home deaths, where the other scandinavian countries will catch up next fall. The median age of "corona deaths" in Sweden is 86 years and 90% are older than 70, according to the FOHM.

While Sweden has >4x per capita "corona deaths" compared to Denmark etc., they are have far less than Spain and Italy and just a bit more than France, countries who shut down everything for weeks and months.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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:jchan:

Sweden has sadly 5-6 times as many deaths, as the other scandinavian countries.
Even Anders Tegnell from Folkhälsmyndigheden, who was very sure in their choice, has admitted that they have made costly mistakes.
Sweden like the UK, made a decision to go for herd immunity on the risk assessment that it (i) the virus fatality rates were near equal or less than seasonal flu and (ii) a vaccine would not be forthcoming. In both cases they appear to be wrong. But based with the ''facts''' at the time from the esteemed WHO and Chay-Na it was a managed risk.

The Brits changed tactic, but not in time. The Swedes as ever, know better than everyone else. The Dutch too were also pursuing the Brit and Swedish strategy, but Mark Rutte had to disband this the day after addressing the nation when it became known that the fatalities without a lock down was estimated at 150,000 people.

Fat bottomed girls playing undergraduate statistics is not the reality at the coal face. And because of the mendacity, secrecy and possible deliberate seeding of this virus by our Chinese chums, statistical games are mostly irrelevant. Especially as wide scale testing hasn't taken place in the West. So it's all conjecture. But you can model, but the it's only killing people in nursing homes is all rather shallow indeed. Whiffs of eugenics.

The lock down tactics were absolutely spot-on, although the overall strategy has been less than adequate because of our over reliance on extended supply chains, especially to China. The lock downs were initiated for two things: to ensure the medical services were not overwhelmed and to flatten the curve in general to give time to develop a vaccine.

The two mainland European countries who were point-men in this bared the brunt and their medical services were overwhelmed: Italy and Spain. So they had people dying in hospital corridors and elsewhere not getting adequate treatment. In other countries i.e. Austria and Germany they were lucky to have their spreaders from ski resorts catering for millennials and there were able to manage it better.

The super-spreader in Italy was miss-diagnosed and promptly went to a football match which seeded it in northern Italy and the coaches returning to Spain.

We in live in a world diminished because of China.
 

sirloin

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he also continues to believe in the approach he has recommended initially and as far as I know has changed next to nothing.
Tegnell in Sweden's state radio, early june:
Should we come across the same disease with exactly the knowledge we have today, I think we would have made a middle ground between what Sweden has done and what the rest of the world has done.
Yes, I think that there is clearly an improvement potential in what we have done in Sweden. And it is good to know more precisely what to close down to prevent the spread of infection better.


the other scandinavian countries will catch up next fall.
You do have a point. I would hope we do not!
Guessing an increase is likely, after the summer holidays, with people traveling almost freely around europe. Only time will tell.
 

QuandoDio

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Totally agree. Politics aside, this is one of the most incompetent (UK) governments in modern memory. A sea of mediocrity and incompetence all around. Not that Labour would have been much better but Boris and co with a hearty majority and all has been a shambles. Report card would read so far: F. Cameron, Blair, even Brown are twice the operators Boris has proven to be thus far tbh
 
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