Coronavirus

Fwiffo

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The lock down tactics were absolutely spot-on, although the overall strategy has been less than adequate because of our over reliance on extended supply chains, especially to China. The lock downs were initiated for two things: to ensure the medical services were not overwhelmed and to flatten the curve in general to give time to develop a vaccine.
Quarantine and lockdown only work in authoritarian countries. I throw Singapore in that lot. Democratic countries that don't have a government that can shoulder and/or nationalize all industries cannot cope with such a tactic.

And does it even help? Beijing is still trying to contain their latest outbreak and they happily post guards and set up checkpoints to pen in and herd their sheep. And that was at an outdoor market - which the rest of the world and the WHO says is the healthiest setting.
 

güero

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Tegnell in Sweden's state radio, early june:
Should we come across the same disease with exactly the knowledge we have today, I think we would have made a middle ground between what Sweden has done and what the rest of the world has done.
Yes, I think that there is clearly an improvement potential in what we have done in Sweden. And it is good to know more precisely what to close down to prevent the spread of infection better.
Right, but did he actually change the current policy to this middle ground? I don't think so. Maybe that's what they will do come fall.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Quarantine and lockdown only work in authoritarian countries. I throw Singapore in that lot. Democratic countries that don't have a government that can shoulder and/or nationalize all industries cannot cope with such a tactic.

And does it even help? Beijing is still trying to contain their latest outbreak and they happily post guards and set up checkpoints to pen in and herd their sheep. And that was at an outdoor market - which the rest of the world and the WHO says is the healthiest setting.
The Paris lockdown was pretty harsh: had to get government permission to go out for food shopping and in that case, you were only allowed out for one hour.

This is a virus that thrives in urban settings. Look at the Persian Gulf, it's very bad in all those countries. Despite temperatures now being in the zone that will kill the virus, everyone's locked-in dense high rises as it's too hot to go outside. Not much breaks in the MSM, but I have several ex-colleagues out there and a couple of clients and what drips out is not good at all.

Anyway, my mob's gone to Efteling today. Face masked and bottles of sanitizer in hand. They've limited the numbers, so at least they won't have to wait long to get on the rides.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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This is from one of my jurisdictions:

View attachment 34001
Is that because social distancing isn't taking place, or lockdown conditions ended too early?

One of the hardest hit regions in the UK, outside of London, is Merseyside and the Wirral. I'm still trying to grapple with the why, considering the lockdown. My aunty had it, was in hospital for 4 weeks and is now back in with it.
 

Dropbear

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Is that because social distancing isn't taking place, or lockdown conditions ended too early?

One of the hardest hit regions in the UK, outside of London, is Merseyside and the Wirral. I'm still trying to grapple with the why, considering the lockdown. My aunty had it, was in hospital for 4 weeks and is now back in with it.
This a fairly conservative county that refused to implement any of their own lockdown measures. You can see exactly when the state measures came into effect and when they ended.

sorry about your aunt.
 

güero

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🤡
Now it's about 1k positive tests out of 3k total. 24 are in hospital. After at least 5 months of the virus circulating, with at least 2-3 months with no protective measures whatsoever (there is video evidence from April). Close everything down, it's a deadly pandemic!!!
🤡
 

Fwiffo

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Is that because social distancing isn't taking place, or lockdown conditions ended too early?

One of the hardest hit regions in the UK, outside of London, is Merseyside and the Wirral. I'm still trying to grapple with the why, considering the lockdown. My aunty had it, was in hospital for 4 weeks and is now back in with it.
For the same reasons why people wonder Western Europe and Anglophone countries which are some of the most advanced in hygiene, health care and overall lifespan are harder hit by it than some cesspool like Nigeria, Indonesia, or India.

Either we're more honest about reporting or we have a different strain.
 

Fwiffo

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🤡
Now it's about 1k positive tests out of 3k total. 24 are in hospital. After at least 5 months of the virus circulating, with at least 2-3 months with no protective measures whatsoever (there is video evidence from April). Close everything down, it's a deadly pandemic!!!
🤡
If you want a country that did nothing it's Belarus.

They even continued to hold their May Day celebrations.
 

sirloin

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Right, but did he actually change the current policy to this middle ground? I don't think so. Maybe that's what they will do come fall.
I'm assuming it's too late for any changes to policies. So more of healthy reflection, of lessons learned, that could have saved lives.
 

Kingstonian

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Boris is a poor speaker and a worse leader. He has got by on his jovial, bumbling, hail-fellow-well-met image and the Conservative belief that he is popular with the working classes.
 

Fwiffo

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Boris is a poor speaker and a worse leader. He has got by on his jovial, bumbling, hail-fellow-well-met image and the Conservative belief that he is popular with the working classes.
Didn't he recently get elected in a general election as party leader?

Working classes gravitate towards Eton men?
 

güero

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So while they do include the false-negatives (by including people with symptoms), apparently they don't adjust the reported cases for the amount of false-positives? And over the last weeks the false positive rate is between 50 and 150% of prevalence? 🤡🤡🤡
 

Fwiffo

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"The WHO on Thursday warned that several countries and territories were seeing a rise in infections. Eleven were in the UN agency's Europe region.

But Dr Tegnell told Swedish TV it was a 'total misinterpretation of the data'.

Sweden had seen a rise in cases, he argued, because it was testing more."

Clearly the Swedes are still operating with v1.0 of the press handling guidelines. More cases when you test more. They need to graduate to the Brazilians and simply stop publishing data. No publishing, no cases.
 

fxh

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In victoria we have only 10 people in hospital at the moment. Popn.. 6m+
But we had 30 plus extra cases over weekend.
now concentrating on suburbs Where the clusters are and doing door knocking and tests by ambos in each street. Doing at least 8,000 tests a day. Population in hot areas with clusters around 200,000 plus. Aim to test 50% of that popn in 10 days.
Most clusters centred around a few families, who had positive members, but still had large gatherings.
 
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Pimpernel Smith

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It's starting to go up again in parts of Germany and the UK, the second wave may well be on the way in. It will be dreadful if it is, for many reasons, definitely one for the ages.

The Netherlands seems to be well on the way out, we shall see. I'm still keeping everyone working from home.
 

güero

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Yes, public policy directly impacts public health.
View attachment 34039
That may well be the case, but you can't infer this from the chart. It's meaningless without showing the number of tests. That's something only the Swedish dude is honest enough to admit. I do think the other public health people understand this as well, they just want to save face and can't admit they have been bullshitting the people for the last couple of weeks/months.

e. To be very clear: If you want to make a statement wether the virus is spreading, you need to look at the %age of positive tests compared to overall tests. If it increases, the virus is spreading. If it stays constant, like it has been the case pretty much everywhere such data is published, the stable genius is perfectly right with his "more tests more cases" statement. You're just measuring tests then. The absolute number of positive tests is more or less useless. It's only helpful for fear-mongering.
 
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Dropbear

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That may well be the case, but you can't infer this from the chart. It's meaningless without showing the number of tests. That's something only the Swedish dude is honest enough to admit. I do think the other public health people understand this as well, they just want to save face and can't admit they have been bullshitting the people for the last couple of weeks/months.
Not exactly, Mr Trump. Raw number of tests Doesn’t tell you much, you need to look at test positivity rate. The fact that the state positivity rate is increasing exponentially (and total tests per day has actually declined a little) clearly indicates that you can’t dismiss the increase in cases as a result of testing. Similarly, ICU beds and deaths aren’t affected by the gross number of tests per day. When these numbers grow exponentially, you can’t pass it off as just ‘too much testing’.
 
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