Coronavirus

güero

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That's largely what I wrote (well too late in the edit, while you were replying). Your chart does not show the %age of positive tests. It shows the positive tests. If you have a chart showing the positivity rate, show that one. That would be useful information.

You may well be right about the number of ICU beds in use, but again, that's not in your chart/post. So far, I haven't seen a chart (or raw data) confirming exponential growth in ICU use, not from the US, not from anywhere else (doesn't mean that it doesn't exist).

In general, I also don't think that virus growth/spread can be considered to be exponential, because it plateaus after a certain growth has taken place. It think that's ln/log growth, iirc.
 
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güero

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Here's a chart for the US, but it's old (from early April):

1593193214346.png


For some European countries and the US, mid-April:

1593193267669.png


There is no exponential growth. There is no ln/log growth. There is minimal growth in the spread of the virus and there seems to be no effect whatsoever from the lockdown.

If someone has better and/or more recent data showing exponential growth, I'd be happy to see them. I can only find this for the US:

1593193533109.png


So where's the exponential growth?
 

güero

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I know, apparently in the Dallas area the first hospitals/ICUs are full. But the reason for this is not exponential growth/virus spread. It is just not there. It would be great if people WHO'S JOB THIS IS (i.e. not you, not me) would start to find out....


e. The testing trends chart is interesting! That is something useful to discuss/interpret. e2 which I'm not going to do, I actually don't care too much. I'm just annoyed by the constant bullshit that is being published in the media.
 
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Pimpernel Smith

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I know, apparently in the Dallas area the first hospitals/ICUs are full. But the reason for this is not exponential growth/virus spread. It is just not there. It would be great if people WHO'S JOB THIS IS (i.e. not you, not me) would start to find out....


e. The testing trends chart is interesting! That is something useful to discuss/interpret. e2 which I'm not going to do, I actually don't care too much. I'm just annoyed by the constant bullshit that is being published in the media.
Hey big man, if it's not the virus, then what is it?

I know it's not your job, but you are very certain it's not because of the virus, then surely you have some hypothesis?
 

Dropbear

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i read today that houston has officially run out of ICU capacity. this true? if so, what do they do if someone has an emergency?
We still have some surge capacity, but as numbers increase quality of care goes down and mortality goes up.
 

güero

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Hey big man, if it's not the virus, then what is it?

I know it's not your job, but you are very certain it's not because of the virus, then surely you have some hypothesis?
Hey Cuckely, I'm glad you ask! Please read my previous posts on this topic and try to understand them. I've provided you with all the information for Italy weeks or even months ago. Go have a look and you'll figure it out yourself. Since we're now talking about the US, go have a look at some of the data they provide: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm Look at e.g. the following statement from the CDC and the associated data:
For 7% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.5 additional conditions or causes per death.
Old people die. It happens. People with coronary diseases die. It happens. Look at the facts regarding ICU capacity as well. I provided you with the information weeks and months ago for Italy and Spain. It's the same for the US. Healthcare services break down when the flu hits. Last time in the 17/18 flu season:


Dallas hospitals were overun in 2018 as well:


Triage tents in 2018, state of emergency in Alabama:


California a "war zone" with people being treated in tents:


Etc. pp. Go look it up yourself.

The coronavirus is not nearly as dangerous as many (but fortunately not all) public health authorities claim. That is painfully obvious. It might be more contagious than the flu, but that's doubtful. It might be more deadly than the flu, but that's doubtful. Look at the fucking data ffs. It's not that difficult to understand. It's been in US and Europe since AT LEAST December 2019. That's a fact. It doesn't mean people shouldn't be careful. People should be careful not the get the flu as well. People should not smoke. People should not have diabetes. People should take care of their health. People should not sit at home unemployed and be scared of their neighbours.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Hey Cuckely, I'm glad you ask! Please read my previous posts on this topic and try to understand them. I've provided you with all the information for Italy weeks or even months ago. Go have a look and you'll figure it out yourself. Since we're now talking about the US, go have a look at some of the data they provide: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm Look at e.g. the following statement from the CDC and the associated data:

Old people die. It happens. People with coronary diseases die. It happens. Look at the facts regarding ICU capacity as well. I provided you with the information weeks and months ago for Italy and Spain. It's the same for the US. Healthcare services break down when the flu hits. Last time in the 17/18 flu season:


Dallas hospitals were overun in 2018 as well:


Triage tents in 2018, state of emergency in Alabama:


California a "war zone" with people being treated in tents:


Etc. pp. Go look it up yourself.

The coronavirus is not nearly as dangerous as many (but fortunately not all) public health authorities claim. That is painfully obvious. It might be more contagious than the flu, but that's doubtful. It might be more deadly than the flu, but that's doubtful. Look at the fucking data ffs. It's not that difficult to understand. It's been in US and Europe since AT LEAST December 2019. That's a fact. It doesn't mean people shouldn't be careful. People should be careful not the get the flu as well. People should not smoke. People should not have diabetes. People should take care of their health. People should not sit at home unemployed and be scared of their neighbours.
It's very simple: normal death rates vs current ones.

I don't need any other data, in the absence of war deaths, that gives us what we need with one caveat: not all countries data is collected and categorized in the same way.

A junior actuary would work that one out.
 

fxh

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We still have some surge capacity, but as numbers increase quality of care goes down and mortality goes up.
In melbourne we had a 200 bed ICU pop up/surge ready to roll. We only have a total of 5 in hospital now In the whole state. Only 1 in ICU.

Whats the figures in Houston? Isn’t it about half popn of Melbourne?
 
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Dropbear

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In melbourne we had a 200 bed ICU pop up/surge ready to roll. We only have a total of 5 in hospital now In the whole state. Only 1 in ICU.

Whats the figures in Houston? Isn’t it about half popn of Melbourne?
Population of greater Houston is about 7 million.

AE452E26-6008-4260-9EDC-F30C24FB886B.png
 

Fwiffo

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In melbourne we had a 200 bed ICU pop up/surge ready to roll. We only have a total of 5 in hospital now In the whole state. Only 1 in ICU.

Whats the figures in Houston? Isn’t it about half popn of Melbourne?
Why do you need the army then?
 

fxh

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Why do you need the army then?
It’s just assistance with staff numbers to do 2 main things.

Help with quarantine for incoming overseas flights and also testing street by street in some hotspot clusters. We are doing 10,000 tests a day street by street in the hotspots. We have a rising positive numbers. 40 over last 2 days.

The army is not tanks and guns it’s mainly paramedics etc. No one seems to mention they are already helping in NSW. We asked for 200.
 

Fwiffo

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It’s just assistance with staff numbers to do 2 main things.

Help with quarantine for incoming overseas flights and also testing street by street in some hotspot clusters. We are doing 10,000 tests a day street by street in the hotspots. We have a rising positive numbers. 40 over last 2 days.

The army is not tanks and guns it’s mainly paramedics etc. No one seems to mention they are already helping in NSW. We asked for 200.
I don't understand why your state wants to practise communist China tactics like Wuhan or Beijing where you drag people out for tests. It's a free democratic society. I reckon you have a few Jehovah's witness who won't volunteer for tests. This is like going to a restaurant and being asked to surrender your contact/trace information.

That said I understand the headline better now. We deployed the armed forces to nursing homes as that was where our outbreaks were. 40 is quite minor.
 

Dropbear

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I don't understand why your state wants to practise communist China tactics like Wuhan or Beijing where you drag people out for tests. It's a free democratic society. I reckon you have a few Jehovah's witness who won't volunteer for tests. This is like going to a restaurant and being asked to surrender your contact/trace information.

That said I understand the headline better now. We deployed the armed forces to nursing homes as that was where our outbreaks were. 40 is quite minor.
I have about 400 State Guard under my command now. They are the ultimate Dad’s Army reservists who you would never give a firearm to. They are, however, a great pool of medical professionals who are now running a dozen mobile drive-through testing sites across the state with military precision.
 

Fwiffo

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I have about 400 State Guard under my command now. They are the ultimate Dad’s Army reservists who you would never give a firearm to. They are, however, a great pool of medical professionals who are now running a dozen mobile drive-through testing sites across the state with military precision.
You're getting important there. When do they assign you a personal soldier-valet to run for food, shine your shoes and clean your PPE?
 

Fwiffo

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I started filling my Zippo lighters since I resumed smoking. I shouldn't share my lighter? The lighter fluid must burn off the virus on ignition doesn't it? Sharing my Zippo was a conversation piece especially with the women.

I saw some black man sit on the side of the walking path on a very busy weekend at Harbourfront offering to sell me a cigarette and light for cash.
 

fxh

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I don't understand why your state wants to practise communist China tactics like Wuhan or Beijing where you drag people out for tests. It's a free democratic society. I reckon you have a few Jehovah's witness who won't volunteer for tests. This is like going to a restaurant and being asked to surrender your contact/trace information.
you sound like you’ve caught some American libertarian militia trumpish virus.
 

Kingstonian

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I have about 400 State Guard under my command now. They are the ultimate Dad’s Army reservists who you would never give a firearm to. They are, however, a great pool of medical professionals who are now running a dozen mobile drive-through testing sites across the state with military precision.
Don’t panic Captain Dropbear ! Don’t panic!

We’re all doomed! Doomed I tell Ye!
 

Pimpernel Smith

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There's a lot to come out about this virus. The HIV stuff is scary, especially the position from the virologist who first found HIV/AIDS. French big oil knew the end of January what was coming. My brother was warned in February and he is the field of virology.

Two contacts of mine in The Kingdom and in Kazakhstan have told me independently again this week that the virus is still ravaging in those countries and in the oil companies/projects. 600+ cases now on projects, deaths of senior managers in abundance.
 

güero

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522
You really must catch up, This is only the flu ticket expired back the end of February.
Well since you're so concerned about "normal death rates", or lack thereof, you should definitely be concerned about the flu. You hid you panic a lot better in 17/18, maybe give it try now as well.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Well since you're so concerned about "normal death rates", or lack thereof, you should definitely be concerned about the flu. You hid you panic a lot better in 17/18, maybe give it try now as well.
I don't need to panic, I employ people to do that for me.

Just pointed to the obvious fact, and you bring up influenza stats as if this is the flu. Which it isn't. But do carry on.

Those at the pointy-end of the medical front line on this forum, know the reality better than anyone and that it is fluid with much hard data missing or being captured and modeled. But what they do know, as you refuse consistently to accept through ignorance or trolling is that this ain't no flu bro'!
 

güero

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522
The hard data is in, it's no biggie. 0.1-0.5% of 40-60% are going to die. Deal with it. The authorities are deliberately scaring people. That's another fact you can choose to ignore.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Certainly is! Go ask your junior actuary to explain it to you.
Dude, I've got all your clocks going backwards, that's why I let you get on with your 10 grand in cash on your desk just to let the others know that you can buy an Audemars Piguet, although you're not into watches, just to let them know you've arrived. Along with the vintage Saab or whatever it is for the missus....
 

Fwiffo

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"People who contracted COVID-19 but didn't get sick and had no symptoms have been one of the most confounding factors of the public health emergency. The United States has more than 2.5 million confirmed coronavirus cases, but it's likely that many asymptomatic people have fallen through the cracks of official counts.

Now, scientists say that without a better understanding of how many people have been asymptomatically infected, it's difficult to know precisely how they contribute to the spread of the virus and whether they have developed antibodies or other protections that would confer some type of immunity against reinfection.

Dr. Jorge Mercado, a pulmonologist and critical care doctor at New York University's Langone Hospital-Brooklyn, said scientists still aren't sure why some people who have been exposed to the virus get very sick, while others develop no symptoms."

Basically we have no idea. Antibodies useful yes/no. Asymptomatic spreads yes/no. Testing positive after recovery yes/no.
 

Fwiffo

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I wonder what they charged the Ebola patients given I can't imagine the typical Ebola patient in DR Congo can afford even 1/10 of that.
 

Dropbear

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Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
 
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