Coronavirus

Rambo

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QuandoDio

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There was a scientist from the UK government's SAGE getting interviewed the other day in The Telegraph and when asked what is going to be the biggest problem this winter for extra mortalities and he replied ''Seasonal flu...''

Looking at the statistics in Europe while the infection rates are sky-rocketing, the mortality rates are well under control.

I've had the first colleague go down with it in Spain. He's off sick in isolation, but not needing hospitalization.

Some of the stuff that's going in the UK, particularly Wales and Scotland seems well over the top at this stage. Supermarkets not being able to sell anything other than essential items. Closing the border in case them dastardly English get in. Begging Westminster for more money to keep them in perpetual and endless lockdown until all risk of the virus is eliminated by vaccine.

Then you have Sadiq Khan, wanting London to be in severe lockdown, whilst his contemporary in Manchester is fighting to keep the city open.

When I was buying my watch today, I asked them how was the business and they said marginally down on normal, but not by much as many people who weren't going on holiday where using that money to buy watches.
Not a fan of Sadiq or the past London Mayor, though I had time for mad Red Ken but that is fake news. He actually wants London to be free of stricter restrictions, at least socially.


 

QuandoDio

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Does anyone have infections under control?
By my count it's only island nations that have walled themselves off (Taiwan, New Zealand) or countries whose numbers are suspiciously low given their population size (China).
Walling yourselves off or cooking the books is the only solution. I was in Iceland four weeks ago -an Island nation universally praised early on for its handling of the crisis- now, it is a mess. One of the highest infection rates, because it opened its borders, tourism is now the number one contributor to its economy and it couldn't afford to shut borders in perpetuity and now its paying the price.
 

Fwiffo

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I'm not saying that vaccines aren't profitable - but it's not the preferred business model of the pharmaceutical industry. Any conspiracy theorists who think that COVID-19 is a plot by "big pharma" to make massive profits from a vaccine are simply wrong.
With the 100 or more vaccines that were funded by international agencies or governments I have to think people who were refused research grant money are taking advantage of the coronavirus.

I'm reading you need multiple doses a year so it's almost like a new drug. And with efficacy in doubt, maybe different manufacturers. Certainly here our government purchased a half dozen or more for the entire population and then some. Someone's making money until (hopefully) it goes away like SARS or MERS.
 

güero

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But these funny little conspiracy theories on mainstream public health and medicine you are pushing are the perfect parallel to Pimp’s incel political podcasts.
You wish, but alas there is no conspiracy. I know it must suck fighting windmills day in day out, but
^
It’s never as simple as a straight conspiracy, you always need to add a major dash of incompetence and graft.
The incompetence is glaringly obvious, which is why large parts of the population don’t give a shit anymore. As evidenced eg by all the semi-legal and illegal parties taking place.

Luckily some politicians are waking up smelling easy votes, some mainstream journalists have already jumped ship and are presenting dissident scientists, etc.

So overall things are developing fine and the flu wonks can return to their basements figuring out how to fuck up less when the next virus hits.
 

fxh

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We are opening up from lockdown after 2 x days of no new cases and a rolling fortnight av of less than 4 per day. 5.5m in Melb - 6 m+ in state

Until next week we still have a 25 k limit on travel - one visit ( 2ppl) to house a day. all retail open pubs with 4sqm per person limits and 10 per room in dining and pubs - 50 outside - seated. Next week all being well the Ring of Steel around Melbourne will lift for country travel.

Boxing day cricket test will go ahead but limited to 25,000 in the MCG ( instead of packed with 100,000)
 

formby002

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Sure is - I think that the BCG vaccine is almost a century old now!

It's in very widespread use in Japan, all across the rest of Asia, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, Africa and South America. The exceptions are most of Europe, the UK, North America, Australia and NZ.

The vaccine is not that effective - apparently only about 50% efficacy or something like that, which is a bit concerning given that TB is still widespread in developing countries and that there are emerging strains of antibiotic-resistant TB.
Britain has a TB jab, I had it at school, most kids did. I've still got the keloid on my upper right arm to prove it.

 

QuandoDio

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Britain has a TB jab, I had it at school, most kids did. I've still got the keloid on my upper right arm to prove it.

True. However, here is the wrinkle.

It is widely available but not readily prescribed for all as it used to be and the MMR and other 'essential' vaccines. I have found this peculiar as TB is latent and the incidence has been rising in the UK due to a variety of reasons (some, immigration-related) and the powers that be has not seen fit to prescribe it for all as it is in other parts of the world were TB is common.
 

Dropbear

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There is a never-ending debate within public health circles about the risks versus benefits of mass TB vaccination.

It’s still given routinely to high risk communities, like native Americans.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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The incompetence is glaringly obvious, which is why large parts of the population don’t give a shit anymore. As evidenced eg by all the semi-legal and illegal parties taking place.

Luckily some politicians are waking up smelling easy votes, some mainstream journalists have already jumped ship and are presenting dissident scientists, etc.

So overall things are developing fine and the flu wonks can return to their basements figuring out how to fuck up less when the next virus hits.
We know two things: this ain't no flu and it ain't no black death either.

The mortality rates remain much higher than seasonal flu and whilst there is a lot of sensational journalese around about those who suffer long term i.e. normal viruses also result in similar issues of swollen brains giving mental symptoms, weaken hearts, etc. There is something unique about the unleashing about this virus.

I still only have one direct person I know who has had the virus, my colleague in Spain who came down with it last week. Still ill at home. A number of colleagues self-isolating at home as wives have tested positive. No one else. It exists at the level of lung cancer, or HIV, I know it exists, but it hasn't touched be at the family, close friends level.

Douglas Murray the journalist, commentator and author has been on a tour of the USA these last couple of weeks and he's on a roll doing a loads of interviews that you can easily find on YouTube. One of the recent interviews he states he has a sense of dread that this virus is only the prelude. The prelude to what? You can read into that a lot, and I do: the origins of the virus, the weaponization by a number of forces, why the interviewer didn't ask him to elaborate further.

The Five Eyes leak early pointed to the virus pointed to a accidental escape, or intentionally leaking from the Biolab of a modified virus. The deliberate seeding across the globe is in no doubt.

In the cramped cities of Europe there is no stomach for further lockdowns and restrictions. Average wages, the condition of the middle class and lower middle class compared to the USA is one of less wages, less housing/living space, less wide screen televisions, less cars. Measured on several fronts the condition of the average EU European and UK is much worse that that of an American. Life in a lockdown in Rome, Paris, even here in The Hague is simply unbearable to the average punter second time around.
 

fxh

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That might be true of USA but not here and most of the world.

Although (following the worst of USA trends as usual) there's been a tendency here for people like Oncologists (of all fucking people ) {{and even a Urologist I have used!!!}}to speak out against some of the Public Health measures and be treated by the media as if they, and other medicos, are somehow experts. FFS they are NOT even experts in infection control in clinical settings.

I've been trying fro years to refer to Population Health as opposed to Public Health for this sort of stuff - its more accurate and less confusing.
 

Journeyman

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Britain has a TB jab, I had it at school, most kids did. I've still got the keloid on my upper right arm to prove it.
School vaccinations for TB stopped in 2005 in the UK.

They stopped in Australia 20-25 years earlier (before my time in school, anyway).

Interestingly, we were all given a Mantoux test in high school, to see if anyone had exposure to TB. I suppose that if any of the Mantoux tests had come back positive, then we might have been given the BCG vaccine.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Escape from Paris, crazy scenes there as the second lockdown begins. The mega-cities are no place to be in an era of lockdown and virus. Macron states 400,000 will die if there is no lockdown.

My youngest has two class mates testing positive. The whole class is now off and has been tested. We have to wait for the result. If it's positive we'll be in a quarantine. I asked them did the class mates fall ill in class, or where their symptoms showing? Apparently, they both looked rather red faced earlier in the week.
 

QuandoDio

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It's only a matter of time before the UK goes in lockdown. Most of the North , Ireland,NI , Wales and Scotland already are anyway. Germany is in soft lockdown with significantly less cases than the UK.
 

Dropbear

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We’re set up multiple levels of acuity hospital overflow in El Paso and still getting overwhelmed. Refrigerated trucks for mortuary overflow are already stationed.
 

fxh

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Latest Victorian Numbers Popn. 6.5m (Melbourne = 5m)
Updated: 30 October 2020 02:30pm
4 new cases (last 24 hours)
20,347 total cases
23,583 test results received (last 24 hours)
3,154,371 total tests
0 lives lost (last 24 hours)
819 total lives lost
80 active cases
5 cases in hospital
0 cases in ICU

19,381 recovered


Change/down due to lockdown from worst day 5 August 2020 = 725 cases
 
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Fwiffo

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Escape from Paris, crazy scenes there as the second lockdown begins. The mega-cities are no place to be in an era of lockdown and virus. Macron states 400,000 will die if there is no lockdown.

My youngest has two class mates testing positive. The whole class is now off and has been tested. We have to wait for the result. If it's positive we'll be in a quarantine. I asked them did the class mates fall ill in class, or where their symptoms showing? Apparently, they both looked rather red faced earlier in the week.
I was working with two blokes from Paris yesterday. It must have been 1630 and they agreed to get on at 1730 for an online work session. About 2200 they started getting extremely anxious and then within a few minutes suddenly left the web conference citing a need to make it home.
 

Dropbear

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Texas, population around 30m. Numbers growing exponentially as we rapidly approach a third wave.

E86B14FF-752A-40E1-9B36-239FDDBA6F25.jpeg


This is what happens when you don’t have a national strategy or unified political support at all levels of government.
 

Fwiffo

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Latest Victorian Numbers Popn. 6.5m (Melbourne = 5m)
Updated: 30 October 2020 02:30pm
4 new cases (last 24 hours)
20,347 total cases
23,583 test results received (last 24 hours)
3,154,371 total tests
0 lives lost (last 24 hours)
819 total lives lost
80 active cases
5 cases in hospital
0 cases in ICU

19,381 recovered
It's going to come back again anyway unless you cocoon yourselves.
 

Fwiffo

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This is what happens when you don’t have a national strategy or unified political support at all levels of government.
Does any nation over 20M people have a unified national strategy?

There are federal, regional/state/provincial, and municipal jurisdiction challenges.

Look at Britain. France, Spain, Italy all had different rules applied to different areas with regional heads pushing back or pushing more for restrictions. Even in my country you can pick 3 provinces and the alert scale is different (red/yellow a la Europe, or stage 1/2/3, or...). Merkel had to broker something between all 26 states and I think Munich was further ahead with restrictions than the rest of Germany, but that's typical of Bavaria.

I don't know if a China/North Korea/Singapore diktat that comes down is fair to the 1000 people who live in the equivalent of Timbuktu of a nation.
 

Fwiffo

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There should be a study one day to see if border closures and other government initiated events that spur mass population migration actually increases infections.
 

Dropbear

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This is all very speculative while we wait for some epis to present on the ‘trump bump’


 
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Pimpernel Smith

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I was working with two blokes from Paris yesterday. It must have been 1630 and they agreed to get on at 1730 for an online work session. About 2200 they started getting extremely anxious and then within a few minutes suddenly left the web conference citing a need to make it home.
That would have been a major dose of gethomeitis. I've got work going ahead on Monday no problem in France.

The lockdowns in mainland Europe seem to encompass everything other than work. Unless you own a bar, restaurant, nightclub, theatre or concert venue. All you need is your self-declaration that you're travelling for work.

IMG_1421.jpg
 
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Pimpernel Smith

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This doctor considers the mortality rate of 0.2% (1 in 500), with 30% of population naturally immune, another 30% being immune having had it:
 

fxh

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This doctor considers the mortality rate of 0.2% (1 in 500), with 30% of population naturally immune, another 30% being immune having had it:
The only problem is that hes wrong
 

Pimpernel Smith

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The only problem is that hes wrong
Likely, where do you put the overall mortality rate?

But of course that is a game too, it's not really about the mortality rate is it? It's about not overwhelming the health care system:

 

Dropbear

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fxh

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Likely, where do you put the overall mortality rate?

But of course that is a game too, it's not really about the mortality rate is it? It's about not overwhelming the health care system:

Its important not to overwhelm the system - any system - as it will increase mortality and morbidity rates for many many things not just C19.

The "true" mortality rate - I don't know but its certainly a way up from zero - clearly we wont know until next year as we adjust for all sorts of things.

The morbidity rate is important and no one has an accurate figure yet - except it too is going to be an even longer way from zero
 

fxh

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Australia - NO new cases today = NONE = Zero - 25M popn.

Sweden Popn. 10.23 million - 2820 new cases
 
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