The Forthcoming War With Iran

[Grand Potentate]

Alright, who's up for another middle east war???

 

[Pimpernel Smith]

A surgical strike assassinating an Iranian elite commander and head of Iranian backed militias who were scheming in Iraq at the time seems an appropriate and measured response. Rather than saturating the place with gun happy contractors or young Americans, take a lead from the Mosquito raids in WII. Tactical precision and devastatingly effective. When they try something immediately take the associated commanders out. No messing around.

 

[Fwiffo]

Except Iran has the ability to project some limited military power with its navy and paramilitary Shiite forces including cyber. Why irritate these places when no one has the stomach and fortitude to govern the Godforsaken country after it is toppled (Iraq, Libya, Syria more or less, Afghanistan). The economic sanctions were working as demonstrated by the domestic riots, and were the better long game play for the US.

I can only imagine how furious the Iraqis are for using their capital as a staging area for this assassination. They were already dealing with religious divide and violence. So much for being respected as an independent country with free elections - they come off as a vassal nation to the US.

 

[Kingstonian]

Alright, who's up for another middle east war???

Not me.

 

[Fwiffo]

Trump’s strike on Iran general jeopardizes vow to stop ‘endless wars’

Analysis: The escalation serves as further evidence that drawing down troops from the Middle East is no simple task.

www.nbcnews.com

Brilliant. The two sides can't even negotiate without a third party broker. Macron needs to start organizing some surprise Gx summits.

 

[formby001]

I'm not entirely convinced that the Americans know what they are doing.

 

[Pimpernel Smith]

Trump knows he can't engage in another large scale Middle East misadventure, no one will stomach it and neither will any ally. Pissing about in Syria you can get away with even the Dutch have a little sweet taste of bombing runs over there.

Based on the evidence of Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan the Americans, Brits and everyone else engaged didn't have much of a strategic bone in their body. Trump is different and when it comes to it, he would flatten Tehran in a day to avoid all out war.

That's the message to the mad mullahs and something for them to contemplate, including the other mob in The Kingdom when they're sponsoring their terrorists proxies in Europe and America.

 

[Pimpernel Smith]

Whoopsie:

 

[formby001]

Trump knows he can't engage in another large scale Middle East misadventure, no one will stomach it and neither will any ally. Pissing about in Syria you can get away with even the Dutch have a little sweet taste of bombing runs over there.

Based on the evidence of Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan the Americans, Brits and everyone else engaged didn't have much of a strategic bone in their body. Trump is different and when it comes to it, he would flatten Tehran in a day to avoid all out war.

That's the message to the mad mullahs and something for them to contemplate, including the other mob in The Kingdom when they're sponsoring their terrorists proxies in Europe and America.

Nick Cohen tweeted an interesting point:

 

[Pimpernel Smith]

View attachment 33071

The regime has also been mocking Trump relentlessly of late, including the now deceased Major General Soleimani, boasting how they owned a great many Americans close to Trump, so close he wouldn't even recognize it. I guess he didn't recognize that some of them may already been turned or are out of power in the Democrats. And I doubt that any of them have taken the time to read Victor Hanson's book on how Trump is in the mold of Dirty Harry/Ethan Edwards/General Patton and Curtis LeMay. Such provocation was not going to go unrewarded:

The Iranian regime has a problem: a Westernized Tehran where they pretend no one is Westernized when everyone is including the evils of drink. They project their power externally, whilst their grip loses to culture from the bottom-up in country.

Then there's the non-sponsored regime Persian diaspora: high IQ, professional and successful. Their kith and kin see this and see what Iran could be free from 7th century tyranny. Don't be fooled, Iran is not the macho revolutionary power it projects, that's why they needed Obama's billions.

 

[Fwiffo]

Then there's the non-sponsored regime Persian diaspora: high IQ, professional and successful. Their kith and kin see this and see what Iran could be free from 7th century tyranny. Don't be fooled, Iran is not the macho revolutionary power it projects, that's why they needed Obama's billions.

Then why irritate them? The proxy wars are relatively self contained. No one is attacking the American homeland. Retaliatory attacks on the Saudis, Jordanians, Israelis or whomever will invite another costly and protracted Desert Shield intervention.

Most Persians drink, smoke hashish, listen to and watch Western media, and have no love for the ruling regime anyway. The elections were trending towards moderates and the domestic unrest was growing with currency inflation and lack of imported goods. If anything this action galvanizes the conflicting secular and religious factions that are currently in power.

The best the Americans can hope for now is it melts away like the surprise cruise missile attack on Bashar Al Assad after the use of chemical weapons.

 

[Pimpernel Smith]

Then why irritate them? The proxy wars are relatively self contained. No one is attacking the American homeland. Retaliatory attacks on the Saudis, Jordanians, Israelis or whomever will invite another costly and protracted Desert Shield intervention.

Most Persians drink, smoke hashish, listen to and watch Western media, and have no love for the ruling regime anyway. The elections were trending towards moderates and the domestic unrest was growing with currency inflation and lack of imported goods. If anything this action galvanizes the conflicting secular and religious factions that are currently in power.

We need to arrive at a solution where their irritations have no meaning to us. Their strategic aims should be at such level that they have no interest beyond their borders. They need to be weak unable to project military power outside of protecting their borders.

 

[doghouse]

Alright, who's up for another middle east war???

 

[doghouse]

I'm not entirely convinced that the Americans know what they are doing.

Narrator: They don't.

 

[formby001]

Narrator: They don't.

Tactically they do (see Cohen's tweet above) but strategically? I'm not so sure...

 

[doghouse]

Tactically they do (see Cohen's tweet above) but strategically? I'm not so sure...

That tweet is complete inane. They already know we know what he was doing every minute of the day. This isn't 2005.

 

[doghouse]

 

[Fwiffo]

Opinion | We're now at war with Iran. That's even scarier than it seems.

All the regular risks of undertaking war are exponentially more dangerous here because of the impulsive approach Trump has taken.

www.nbcnews.com

What did you Brits do this time?

"Demonstrators burn the U.S. and British flags during a protest against the assassination of the Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani in Tehran on Friday."

 

[Pimpernel Smith]

Next stop...retaliation...immediately met (as if previously gamed) the take out of the regime's nuclear facilities: all of them.

Any escalation: the oil fields and next Tehran.

My guess, is that they will will target non-US targets in Europe to appease the hard liners, whilst not risking anything other than Merkel's grovelling. Job well done.

 

[formby001]

Opinion | We're now at war with Iran. That's even scarier than it seems.

All the regular risks of undertaking war are exponentially more dangerous here because of the impulsive approach Trump has taken.

www.nbcnews.com

What did you Brits do this time?

"Demonstrators burn the U.S. and British flags during a protest against the assassination of the Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani in Tehran on Friday."

The more paranoid amongst the Iranians, have this weird belief that the US is a British proxy, that they do the Brits bidding.

They've been like this for years.

Nicely captured by the the Historian Tom Holland a few days ago, who's latest book I recommend:

 

[Scherensammler]

I'm not worried at all.
I'm sure at some point Greta Thunberg will get all sides together and tell them off, because war is bad for the planet's climate.
Problem solved!

I was slightly amused by the reports on BBC news.
Apparently all Western globalist, pro Iran governments were throwing a tantrum because the US didn't inform them before the air strike.
And, being the BBC, they had all the usual suspects on for a comment. All those well paid experts (from such a renowned, peace loving organisation like the CfR) who were basically wishing for a further escalation.
Read today that Israel provided the coordinates for the air strike, but didn't want to do it themselves for obvious reasons...
I do wonder whether the Russians were informed or knew about it. I'm sure they are somehow monitoring the region. Might even be down with it because it weakens the Iranian hardliners.

My guess, is that they will will target non-US targets in Europe to appease the hard liners, whilst not risking anything other than Merkel's grovelling. Job well done.

May I suggest the German Kanzleramt during a cabinet meeting?! But please send someone who does a better job than that von Stauffenberg guy.

The more paranoid amongst the Iranians, have this weird belief that the US is a British proxy, that they do the Brits bidding.

What they and others, non Iranian people are referring to are likely the British members of the real rulers in the shadows.

 

[Pimpernel Smith]

I work with quite a few exiled Iranians and they are all high IQ, successful professionals. Except for someone's brother who's long term unemployable, but I don't know him personally.

I've also been recently before the snap-back kicked in to Tehran. North Tehran is completely westernized except for the posters of the martyrs of the Iran/Iraq war, mostly very young boys. A great founding myth, but actually not.

The regime is hanging on by it's fingertips. Externally it is Islamic and projecting power, internally, it's surrendering to bottom-up culture. Of course, they will cull every now and again. Only a very few people got down for prayers at the big bazaar, the gold market carried on as before.

The Persian culture has a lot going for it, if they can free themselves from the regime.

Meanwhile, the mighty Nike point man, Colin Kaepernick, wades in:

Colin Kaepernick on Twitter

“There is nothing new about American terrorist attacks against Black and Brown people for the expansion of American imperialism.”

twitter.com

 

[Fwiffo]

That's stunning racial sensitivity (or ignorance) from Kaepernick. Did the Trump administration launch an attack on the subcontinent?

Persians don't think they are brown. They get insulted when you equate them with Arabs. If anything Persians come from the Caucasus. And Caucasian is what white people check off in their census.

 

[Pimpernel Smith]

That's stunning racial sensitivity (or ignorance) from Kaepernick. Did the Trump administration launch an attack on the subcontinent?

Persians don't think they are brown. They get insulted when you equate them with Arabs. If anything Persians come from the Caucasus. And Caucasian is what white people check off in their census.

Persians are with some exceptions genetically Indo-European which makes them Caucasian. We Europeans wouldn't class them as black, or a Hispanic status, on account we don't give that to Spanish or Italians. Who are in general more olive/brown than northern Europeans.

It will be interesting to see if Nike ditch Kaepernick, or continue to double down. So far, they claim their sponsoring of him as someone who's not fit to play professionally in his chosen discipline has increased their value by billions. Hence he's worth a lot more than those in the sweat shops that make the Nike products.

 

[ter1413]

......

 

[doghouse]

Well, Trump finally managed to get some Americans blown up. Good job y'all

 

[Fwiffo]

Well, Trump finally managed to get some Americans blown up. Good job y'all

It's okay mate. The President will launch fire and fury like the world has never seen. Much more people will be trampled to death. It's just math - by Vietnam standards.

 

[doghouse]

It's okay mate. The President will launch fire and fury like the world has never seen. Much more people will be trampled to death. It's just math - by Vietnam standards.

Might just be a false alarm, just Iraqis killed. And who cares about that, right?

 

[Fwiffo]

Might just be a false alarm, just Iraqis killed. And who cares about that, right?

You should if Iraq became the next Puerto Rico.

Then again if the US hits the 52 pre-targeted sites how many donkeys, goats, pomegranate and pistachio trees would be killed?

 

[doghouse]

You should if Iraq became the next Puerto Rico.

Then again if the US hits the 52 pre-targeted sites how many donkeys, goats, pomegranate and pistachio trees would be killed?

Too many my friend, too many.

 

[Fwiffo]

Too many my friend, too many.

I would get Colin Powell to do a presentation about surgical strikes again. He has credibility.

 

[Grand Potentate]

this plane going down in iran can't be a coincidence, can it?

 

[Dropbear]

If Trump wants to destroy Iran so badly, he should become their next president.

 

[Fwiffo]

this plane going down in iran can't be a coincidence, can it?

Apparently you were right.

U.S. evidence suggests Iranian missile shot down Ukrainian plane by mistake, sources say

Asked what he thought brought down the jet, President Donald Trump said he had suspicions. "Somebody could've made a mistake on the other side," he said.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Grand Potentate]

Apparently you were right.

U.S. evidence suggests Iranian missile shot down Ukrainian plane by mistake, sources say

Asked what he thought brought down the jet, President Donald Trump said he had suspicions. "Somebody could've made a mistake on the other side," he said.

www.nbcnews.com

looks like it

Iran Says It 'Unintentionally' Shot Down Ukrainian Airlines Flight [Updated]

Iran’s military admitted to “unintentionally” shooting down a Ukrainian International Airlines passenger jet that crashed shortly after takeoff earlier

gizmodo.com

 

[Fwiffo]

Iran's biggest warship sinks in Gulf of Oman after huge fire

Iranian officials offered no cause for the fire aboard the Kharg.

www.nbcnews.com

One less for the naval blockades, but wait...

"The warship, built in Britain and launched in 1977, entered the Iranian navy in 1984 after lengthy negotiations that followed Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution."

People sold arms to the fundamentalists?

 

[Fwiffo]

U.S. forces launch 'defensive' airstrikes against Iran-backed militias

The action was a response to drone attacks on American personnel and facilities in Iraq, an official said.

www.nbcnews.com

A defensive strike.

 

[Grand Potentate]

 

[Fwiffo]

Luckily six nation talks are suspended in Vienna because Russia needs time to review all the documents. Holding those daily press conferences can be a bit of a drain on your diplomatic corps.

 

[Dropbear]

Drones attacking Tehran right now.