The Next Election, Political News, and Other Forms of Comedy (US & Intl)

Pimpernel Smith

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This chart is quite interesting. It adds in compulsory payments into the US tax burden on people. It includes health care insurance payments

View attachment 32725
The Dutch system is intriguing as they're very good at hiding stuff like that. Same as the 2 year sickness entitlement that the employer has to pay, which is really 2 years + 10 years = 12 years. But they never mention the added 10 years exposure. Case in point you pay compulsory medical insurance, but also some of your salary is taken out as a medical national insurance on top of that. The hospitals and health treatment here is good, better than the UK, with the exception of the maternity wards. But lots of Brits get shocked when they have to pay compulsory health insurance here and doubly so when they've run the gauntlet for 18 months and finally taken out insurance only to find their bank account has a full 18 months insurance taken out from the day they received their first pay packet.
 

Rambo

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Thruth

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here you go thruth. 'is it too urban? is it too internet?'

When Bernie has the big one, the Squad will cart his corpse around to the primaries. Shoe in. I can see them with the casket held high above their heads, scream-crying like West Bank martyr moms. The only thing missing will be AK’s firing into the sky because Beto and Butsludge took them away from them.
 

Thruth

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here you go thruth. 'is it too urban? is it too internet?'

....YES, too urban, too internet. Won’t play in Peoria. Apparently Bernie will wear Fubu and Timberlands from here on it.
 

Pauly Chase

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Bernie can kiss his dream of ever winning primaries goodbye with the Squad endorsement. Way to radical for mainstream and even some of the radicalized.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Bernie can kiss his dream of ever winning primaries goodbye with the Squad endorsement. Way to radical for mainstream and even some of the radicalized.
The MSM has much to answer for in giving the left fringes the center stage, enhancing the marketing of their message and trying to make their BS mainstream which even the likes of the BBC cannot sustain in the UK. Look at Corbyn, he's gone from being the second coming of the messiah to the joke of Magic Grandpa and yet still they try to make his economic lunacy palatable.

People can be fooled at a superficial level with marketing spin, but sustained exposure to the reality and facts will always result in most of the people not being fooled at the time where it counts.
 

Fwiffo

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Urban = colored
But she's slightly beige isn't she?

Is that helping? Really?

No. It's too moderate of an endorsement. You need someone like Putin, Erdogan or Maduro endorsing you these days to move the needle.
 

Rambo

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But she's slightly beige isn't she?



No. It's too moderate of an endorsement. You need someone like Putin, Erdogan or Maduro endorsing you these days to move the needle.
Beige ≠ white
 

Thruth

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Thruth

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Is that helping? Really?

No Canadian gives a fuck if Obama or any other past or sitting president gives an endorsement of any Canadian leader in the election. Fwiffo might. But I think he is a Russian asset.
 

Fwiffo

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No Canadian gives a fuck if Obama or any other past or sitting president gives an endorsement of any Canadian leader in the election. Fwiffo might. But I think he is a Russian asset.
Sod off. I was born in Canada. In Toronto proper.
 

Rambo

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So, as the polls predicted, the Liberals win the most seats, but short of a majority. The Conservatives actually got slightly more of the popular vote at 34% to 33%, but since their support is geographically clustered, they received less seats.

The NDP lost seats, down to 24. The Bloc went from almost none to probably 32 of Quebec’s 78 ridings, making them the third largest party. This shouldn’t be taken as meaning separatism is roaring back, the Bloc downplayed separatism, but did benefit from supporting the no religious symbols law in Quebec (which includes hijabs and so on.) The Quebecois, like the French, are still big believers in secularism and not fans of multiculturalism.

The most likely result here is a Liberal/NDP coalition government, though Trudeau could try to govern as a minority. He won’t want to ally with the Bloc as they are still officially separatists and the rest of Canada wouldn’t like that.

My read of Trudeau’s personality is that he’s woke in the most performative sense: he doesn’t actually believe in anything left-wing, really, and he won’t like allying with the NDP. I read Trudeau right when he became leader, noting that there was no chance in hell of any electoral reform under him unless it was ranked ballots; and stating he was an empty shirt. His betrayal of his promises to Canada’s indigenous people and his buying a pipeline indicate I was correct.

Trudeau would be more comfortable working with the Conservatives, in my view, but that’s impossible for a variety of reasons.

So we’ll see what he does. I’d expect him to suck it up and do a coalition, then like his father, after having been forced to do some left wing things by the NDP, to use those as proof that he’s left wing and not an empty shirt, and call another election. (His father, though many things, was not empty, mind you.)

However, we’ll see. Trudeau’s primary characteristic is near narcissism. He’s always been beautiful, rich and loved. He has near divine confidence that whatever he does is right, and he’s a neoliberal at heart.

As for the longer future, nothing about this election is good. The NDP continue to slide. The Conservatives are getting stronger, and the Liberals are just neoliberals. There is no sign that Canadian politics is getting healthier, other than a minor surge by the NDP towards the end. The choice remains “bad or terrible.”.

Thruth
 

Thruth

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So, as the polls predicted, the Liberals win the most seats, but short of a majority. The Conservatives actually got slightly more of the popular vote at 34% to 33%, but since their support is geographically clustered, they received less seats.

The NDP lost seats, down to 24. The Bloc went from almost none to probably 32 of Quebec’s 78 ridings, making them the third largest party. This shouldn’t be taken as meaning separatism is roaring back, the Bloc downplayed separatism, but did benefit from supporting the no religious symbols law in Quebec (which includes hijabs and so on.) The Quebecois, like the French, are still big believers in secularism and not fans of multiculturalism.

The most likely result here is a Liberal/NDP coalition government, though Trudeau could try to govern as a minority. He won’t want to ally with the Bloc as they are still officially separatists and the rest of Canada wouldn’t like that.

My read of Trudeau’s personality is that he’s woke in the most performative sense: he doesn’t actually believe in anything left-wing, really, and he won’t like allying with the NDP. I read Trudeau right when he became leader, noting that there was no chance in hell of any electoral reform under him unless it was ranked ballots; and stating he was an empty shirt. His betrayal of his promises to Canada’s indigenous people and his buying a pipeline indicate I was correct.

Trudeau would be more comfortable working with the Conservatives, in my view, but that’s impossible for a variety of reasons.

So we’ll see what he does. I’d expect him to suck it up and do a coalition, then like his father, after having been forced to do some left wing things by the NDP, to use those as proof that he’s left wing and not an empty shirt, and call another election. (His father, though many things, was not empty, mind you.)

However, we’ll see. Trudeau’s primary characteristic is near narcissism. He’s always been beautiful, rich and loved. He has near divine confidence that whatever he does is right, and he’s a neoliberal at heart.

As for the longer future, nothing about this election is good. The NDP continue to slide. The Conservatives are getting stronger, and the Liberals are just neoliberals. There is no sign that Canadian politics is getting healthier, other than a minor surge by the NDP towards the end. The choice remains “bad or terrible.”.

Thruth
Canadians sent a message that the least offensive government with the best chance of delivering something transformative for all Canadians would be a Liberal minority that would have to cooperate with the other parties plus it avoided having to confront the possibility of a coalition government which is foreign to us at the federal level.

Canadians believed Trudeau when he said he would reform the electoral process but lied. They took electoral reform out of his hands and did it themselves.

The minority + loss of the popular vote demonstrates this. Canadians voting regionally has opened up rents in the landscape in the west and in Quebec.

What non-Canadians have to understand is that the Bloc is not interested in Canada’s national agenda. National to them is Quebec and Quebec voters sent more Bloc to Ottawa to preserve Quebec’s culture and secular ways. Blanchet’s speech was clear on that.

The election once again demonstrated that no one sees the NDP as anything more than an also ran that can rise up to challenge for the official opposition at best. They shit the bed in Quebec and any link to the Orange Wave of the dirt napping Jack Layton is nothing but a fart in a windstorm now.

Singh is of the wrong political persuasion and should be a Liberal. He was the most genuine in his election night speech but it did not contain any vestige of how badly they failed. His speech, like all the others were misplaced campaign speeches not speeches of contrition and acknowledgement that Canadians dislike them all. The crowd “spontaneously” broke into a “tax the rich chant” and he chuckled and said “we will”. Completely misguided as were his mandatory 6 points to gain NDP cooperation. Sorry Jagmeet, the NDP is now broke and could not mount another election campaign should the Liberal minority fail a vote of non-confidence.

Though the Conservatives won the popular vote that is more of a winning their ridings by large margins not that Canadians almost elected them. 150-plus seats is a strong minority. The Conservatives have demonstrated once again they cannot build beyond their base. Until they shit down the religious, racist, anti-abortion, anti-old, straight white guy stance they will only win when voters tire of Liberals who have been in government past their best before date. Scheer’s speech was giddy and misguided and his inflection was like a high school girl: “OMG, meet the two newest MP’s from Saskatchewan!”.

Almost forgot the Greens. Sadly, Lizzy May is the most accomplished leader out of them all. She is a Ranty Thunberg who has actually accomplished something environmentally. But of all the leaders, she is the one that needs to go because 3 seats and doubling the Green portion of the popular vote to 6% is clearly meaningless to Canadians. They need a new leader just because. And for someone new to see if they can grow the party.

in fact, Canadians voted for meaningful climate change changes because the other parties didn’t really promise anything other than promises so they do not need to vote Green for that. All parties are o

There will be no formal coalition. That is clear from the results. Trudeau will have to work with the other parties to get things done but not in a formal coalition. It will be a Liberal minority that leads Canada.

Since the Liberals can no longer be on the autopilot setting of having a majority they will have to govern smartly and this will be a test of Trudeau’s abilities as a leader. To deal with a lukewarm mandate from Canadians, to deal with the infighting from within his party that comes with a minority and to curry favour from the other parties. To this point he has not demonstrated that. His speech was the worst. The emotions of a majority victor and tone deaf regarding the west and Quebec.

The best example of effective minority government rule is what I would call a Pearsonian minority. Lester Pearson being the PM in a Liberal minority that delivered universal healthcare and the Canada Pension Plan. Back to back Liberal minority governments too. Plus a Nobel prize for the Suez crisis. Not a soecail

That is the level of transformative change that Trudeau’s minority must deliver. Something on the magnitude of universal Pharmacare not $1000 in every family’s pocket from punk ass tax cuts.

First Nations are demanding billions more for social programs and payouts from past misdeeds. This will never end. The west wants pipelines. Quebec does not.

Delivering substantive change for all Canadians will mitigate the regional discord somewhat which is why what the Liberal minority delivers must be big.

The point has been made that all the leaders should face leadership reviews and should be replaced. The other side of the coin is that with Scheer and Singh it is their first campaigns and they should be given some grace. Most likely they will not be replaced but I am not ruling out the reviews and possibly one or both getting turfed. Time will tell.

Everyone expected this outcome. Internal Liberal polling was expecting 150ish seats.

This result is the first in a long, long time that comes with a carrot and stick mandate from Canadians. There was not this level of regional dissent for Harper’s minorities.

Trudeau needs to deliver and his faggoty, pretend social activism won’t cut it. He needs to do something now for Canada and it may not get him elected whenever this minority government fails in a few years. Not many leaders get three mandates in a row.

Canadians have created the perfect storm for change, we will see if Trudeau and the others grow some balls to deliver something meaningful. This time is different because Canadians have lost their patience for bullshit.
 

Fwiffo

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Everyone expected this outcome. Internal Liberal polling was expecting 150ish seats.
Thank you for the treatise grandpa.

I'm unsure the final seat count was the expectation of the Liberals. I think they look back and believe they overachieved with the results east of Winnipeg. Talks of coalition wouldn't have surfaced in the final week if that was the case.

The regional fracture surfaces every few cycles. The aftermath of the Martin minority government played out the same way in the press. Demographics meant no one will ever win a majority again. Lo and behold two parties won majorities since that time. Everything is cyclical.
 

Thruth

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Thank you for the treatise grandpa.

I'm unsure the final seat count was the expectation of the Liberals. I think they look back and believe they overachieved with the results east of Winnipeg. Talks of coalition wouldn't have surfaced in the final week if that was the case.

The regional fracture surfaces every few cycles. The aftermath of the Martin minority government played out the same way in the press. Demographics meant no one will ever win a majority again. Lo and behold two parties won majorities since that time. Everything is cyclical.
Not dwarfingly superficial enough for you is it?

What part of various media sources citing internal Liberal sources did you miss? Clearly stated, multiple networks, "buck fifty" was quoted numerous times. If it helps, that also came to me from within the national CPC.

Of course everything is cyclical but the difference is the level of discord. That is apparent to anyone who pays attention. It should also be apparent to someone of your age, not quite young and not too old. You did not have the same magnitude of climate change push wrapped around the bitumen in Alberta and Saskatchewan. You have never seen a Saskatchewan premier castigate Ottawa like what just happened. Even the anger regarding the NEP from Trudeau senior was not as palpable as it is today. That is not Wexit wrambling. It is non-separatist disgust in the failure of ALL parties. As another example, you did not have that level of Indigenous anger coupled with so much power that exists in the era of Truth & Reconciliation.

Martin was a one and done minority whereas I believe this is only the second time that a PM has followed up a first majority with a minority.

So if everything is cyclical then it is time for transformative change like same-sex marriage and the Kelowna Accord delivered by Martin, right? I've already mentioned CPP and Medicare under Pearson.

And who gives a fuck about the media reports? That does not inform my "grandpa treatise". Experience does since I am regularly meeting with all levels of government, communities and First Nations so I hear their opinions. A few more years of experience than you although I have no problem saying I am 55 and proud to be a grandpa.

You should take a page out of Pauly Chase's book and have a family of your own to be proud of. It probably would alter your perception more than the liquor does.
 

Fwiffo

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What part of various media sources citing internal Liberal sources did you miss? Clearly stated, multiple networks, "buck fifty" was quoted numerous times. If it helps, that also came to me from within the national CPC.
I'm not sure the Liberals were expecting that after the second French debate when polls had them in a free fall against the Bloc in Quebec and the NDP in other battleground provinces. 150 prior to the second French debate - yes. When both the Liberals and Conservatives hovered around 30% in popular polls, the "most seat should govern" argument came from Scheer and the coalition talks from Singh because he thought he could scrape together a decent sized caucus outside of Quebec. That Trudeau was armed with anemic rebuttal lines of "vote for a progressive government" really means no one in red was sure what the outcome was that week. Of course Mr. Scheer opted to damage his own campaign in the final weekend with the fictional HST tax hikes from the Liberals and NDP and the Globe ran another too coincidental/timely expose on the Conservative fixation to hire a firm to kill the People's Party.

Of course everything is cyclical but the difference is the level of discord. That is apparent to anyone who pays attention. It should also be apparent to someone of your age, not quite young and not too old. You did not have the same magnitude of climate change push wrapped around the bitumen in Alberta and Saskatchewan. You have never seen a Saskatchewan premier castigate Ottawa like what just happened. Even the anger regarding the NEP from Trudeau senior was not as palpable as it is today. That is not Wexit wrambling. It is non-separatist disgust in the failure of ALL parties.
I believe that rancour caused the creation of the Reform party. And where did that take the Progressive Conservatives? To their grave and wherever Peter MacKay retired to right now. If I remember correctly the slogan at that time was "the west wants in". Oil, provincial/federal jurisdiction, contribution levels to the federal budget were I'm sure all topics.

I can't comment on the NEP as I wasn't alive at that time.

Martin was a one and done minority whereas I believe this is only the second time that a PM has followed up a first majority with a minority.
I would argue Paul Martin took a two term Liberal majority and snatched a minority out of a winnable election. He really didn't do much more than continue what was done before; personal grievances aside with Jean Chretien.

So if everything is cyclical then it is time for transformative change like same-sex marriage and the Kelowna Accord delivered by Martin, right? I've already mentioned CPP and Medicare under Pearson.
I'm well aware of what was achieved under Lester Pearson but more resigned it will be bread and circus a la Stephen Harper's minority.

….As another example, you did not have that level of Indigenous anger coupled with so much power that exists in the era of Truth & Reconciliation.
...
And who gives a fuck about the media reports? That does not inform my "grandpa treatise". Experience does since I am regularly meeting with all levels of government, communities and First Nations so I hear their opinions.
I'm unsure why the government or the country is fixated on aboriginals. It's like Germans talking about the Nazi past and adopting an automatic collective guilt conscience. The reparations have been made many times over and apologies made to people who are almost two generations removed from being abused by the British or Canadian governments. The aboriginal community is shrinking. They have a toehold if that on the nation's upper echelons of society and they choose to live on land that is not easily accessed much less serviced. What more does government or society owe them? And besides as we call them First Nations, indigenous or aboriginal you were the one who told me they refer to themselves by the derogatory term of Indians.

A few more years of experience than you although I have no problem saying I am 55 and proud to be a grandpa.

You should take a page out of Pauly Chase's book and have a family of your own to be proud of. It probably would alter your perception more than the liquor does.
It might. I'd then vote for whomever gives me the most tax credits and child benefits for the larger brood that I have. But I am taking on Rambo's thinking that the world is heading towards decline & fall and I'd rather not introduce another bastard to our dystopia.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Great piece by Matt Breunig about liz warren's disastrous M4A plan.

If you don't want to read all that, this interview should give you all you need to base a decision off of

Too many legitimate ways to avoid paying into that scheme. Clearly, Warren and her backers are half-wits.
 

Fwiffo

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Who knew public service was a dangerous profession?

"The mayor of a small town in Bolivia has been attacked by opposition protesters who dragged her through the streets barefoot, covered her in red paint and forcibly cut her hair."
 

Fwiffo

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"The Brexit Party has announced that it will not stand candidates in the 317 seats won by the Conservatives at the 2017 general election."

An alliance is made.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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An alliance is made.
Not quite, for ultimate humiliation of Labour, the Conservatives should stand aside in the Labour heartlands and let the Brexit Party candidates romp home to victory. Thus eliminating the Marxist threat and a guarantee of a meaningful Brexit in one check mate move.
 

Fwiffo

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Not quite, for ultimate humiliation of Labour, the Conservatives should stand aside in the Labour heartlands and let the Brexit Party candidates romp home to victory. Thus eliminating the Marxist threat and a guarantee of a meaningful Brexit in one check mate move.
There is no guarantee the incumbent is in the best position to win but it would be a massive organisation effort to vet candidates and do local polls for each MP and see whom should stand for candidacy.
 

Fwiffo

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“Police say they are assessing two allegations of electoral fraud, after claims the Tories offered peerages to Brexit Party election candidates to persuade them to stand down.”

The value of a seat in the House of Lords in 2019.
 

Fwiffo

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"The moderate mayor supported by 25 percent of respondents was followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 16 percent; former Vice President Joe Biden, 15 percent; Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, 15 percent; and Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, 6 percent."

Blimey, Biden is tied for 3rd with Sanders now.
 
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