The Trump Presidency

Dropbear

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“Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying county-specific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths (not necessarily among attendees).”

 

Pimpernel Smith

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“Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying county-specific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths (not necessarily among attendees).”

I hope they all voted by post then!

What about all the Antifa peaceful protests? No social distancing, few face masks, spitting and all kinds of stuff going on. How many have they contributed to Covid-19 cases and deaths?
 

Dropbear

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2019 Far Right Talking Points: Antifascist street protesters are bad because they wear masks and spread out across the protest area.

2020: Far Right Talking Points: Antifascist street protesters don’t wear masks and congregate together indoors all the time.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Between güero güero ’s “it’s just like the flu” and this post, it’s hard to guess which is ageing worse. 😂
We'll see, I hear a little tremolo in the postings of Biden fans at the moment. The fear has set in. Trump may break through the wall again, like a 1973 concert by Miles Davis, but without the coke.
 

The Shooman

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We'll see, I hear a little tremolo in the postings of Biden fans at the moment. The fear has set in. Trump may break through the wall again, like a 1973 concert by Miles Davis, but without the coke.
Looking at this latest picture of one of the Trump rallies in Butler, I don't blame Biden's fans for being worried.
Trump rally 1.jpg


I think many people are probably sick of career politicians, and l think the public want the swamp drained.

The swamp = people who live well from the political system without any care for serving the people. It effects all sides of politics. So many presidents have come from the swamp.
 

Fwiffo

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If he didn't sit for a whole week in the hospital and White House recovering from coronavirus he could have campaigned and closed the gap further. I'm looking at realclearpolitics aggregate polls and it's clear his appearances in Pennsylvania have made a dent in what was a double digit Biden lead. The problem is whether all the early votes were cast in that double digit lead foregone conclusion climate or after the President started stumping the swing states. Florida also tightened up. Another two weeks and it would have been an interesting fight.

I won't be watching tonight. Year 2000 nightmares of waiting all night for no result and being late for school the next day.

Ironically four years ago I was going out with this girl I met in some employer mandated class and after dinner we went to this cocktail club I was part of. They had a mock election night and I cast a fictitious vote for Donald Trump. She lives in Pennsylvania now.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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The pressure is starting to build, even our man in Amsterdam, the Styx is in his red dressing gown, a sure sign of the chaos magick ahead:

 

Rambo

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he's wearing the robe again. must mean things are looking up!
 

Fwiffo

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“The president's staffers and campaign officials stayed there through much of the night - their boss's job was on the line, and all they could do was wait and drink alcohol. Lots of it.

On Tuesday morning, women in the West Wing had showed up for work in festive attire: Republican-red sweaters, skirts and stilettos, looking as if they had texted each other to agree the dress code. Throughout the day and into the night, they watched election returns and wondered what would happen.

Then the president pulled ahead of his Democratic rival Joe Biden in Florida. The mood brightened. A table in the office of Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany was littered with wine bottles and bags of crisps.”

I wouldn’t mind having some bottles of wine and bags of crisps with Kayleigh McEnany.
 
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Pimpernel Smith

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Careful, if posters here start listening to this they might start getting scared (they are probably scared already hehe), but if Trump slides backwards you better get your hanky out Mr Smith because you are going to need it. :rofl:
He's slid back all of a sudden like:

Capturea.PNG


Either way with the Senate and SCOTUS, the radicals are not going to get through their Marxist agenda.,
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Nice picture Pimpernel Smith Pimpernel Smith .Looks like there could be a big investigation. Could be a lot of big surprises coming and big exposures.
It could end up being a quagmire and Trump may have to take a hit on a second presidency to preserve the integrity of his legacy, for which of course the MSM and the establishment will never acknowledge anyway. But if they've been on maneuvers capturing evidence of fake ballots....

In any event, the Republicans have effectively neutered the Democrats mandate for radical neo-Marxism. Once the Trojan horse of Biden is gone and Harris pops up like a demonically possessed jack-in-the-box that too will work against the Democrats.

The woke elite have also now got a credibility gap: the latinos and many black people voted for Trump in unprecedented numbers despite the constant wall of propaganda and the belief that they owned this demographic on the Democrat welfare cheque and promise of ''equity not equality'' and reparations.
 

formby002

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I think its hard not to come to the conclusion, that if it wasn't for Coronavirus, Trump would have walked this election.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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I think its hard not to come to the conclusion, that if it wasn't for Coronavirus, Trump would have walked this election.
It's been obvious for some time that Trump was many times more popular than the MSM, tech monopolies and pollsters would have it.

We've had our problems with postal voting in the likes of Tower Hamlets.

The situation in the US appears toxic: Blanket ballots sent by post to outdated lists that include dead voters, people who have moved out of state, and then harvested with no verification, sent in late and / or with no postmark. The Republicans should have well gamed this scenario and shenanigans.

I have subscriptions to The Spectator and The Telegraph and some of the opinion pieces the last day or two by supposedly conservative journalists are very revealing of the establishment mind set. All of a sudden they come out for Biden and boasting they bought champagne to celebrate his ''win''. These hacks haven't gone down well in the comment sections as its very clear they've been nobbled with the use of the same champagne trope.

We live in weird and diminished times. There is a game afoot that must be thwarted.
 

Journeyman

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Calm, measured and at complete odds with the frothing at the mouth, literally Hitler portrayal in the MSM:
Nothing that I've read in the news indicated that Trump was "frothing at the mouth" and like Hitler.

It did, however, state that Trump was lying repeatedly - and those reports are entirely correct.

Then again, he's lied multiple times per day for the past four years so it's unsurprising that he would continue to do so.
 

Pimpernel Smith

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Nothing that I've read in the news indicated that Trump was "frothing at the mouth" and like Hitler.

It did, however, state that Trump was lying repeatedly - and those reports are entirely correct.

Then again, he's lied multiple times per day for the past four years so it's unsurprising that he would continue to do so.
Just because Twitter says so....

 

güero

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I have claimed, for electoral vote purposes, the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, the state of Georgia, and the State of North Carolina.
It’s over! Press conference with my lawyers tonight!
 

QuandoDio

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I think its hard not to come to the conclusion, that if it wasn't for Coronavirus, Trump would have walked this election.
Maybe. However, this is a very silly remark to make. But for corrupt Hilary, Dems would have won the election (3 million more votes btw). But for Iraq war or not, Mc Cain was the man. But for Clinton's foibles, Al Gore was the man etc.

The fact is , as it stands, Trump is losing/ lost. There needs to be a grown-up in the room who needs to have words with him and his cohorts and be dignified. Win some. Lose some.

Donald Trump Jr saying statements like ' we have to go to war' etc is as dangerous as it is moronic.
 

The Shooman

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I heard
It's been obvious for some time that Trump was many times more popular than the MSM, tech monopolies and pollsters would have it.

We've had our problems with postal voting in the likes of Tower Hamlets.

The situation in the US appears toxic: Blanket ballots sent by post to outdated lists that include dead voters, people who have moved out of state, and then harvested with no verification, sent in late and / or with no postmark. The Republicans should have well gamed this scenario and shenanigans.

I have subscriptions to The Spectator and The Telegraph and some of the opinion pieces the last day or two by supposedly conservative journalists are very revealing of the establishment mind set. All of a sudden they come out for Biden and boasting they bought champagne to celebrate his ''win''. These hacks haven't gone down well in the comment sections as its very clear they've been nobbled with the use of the same champagne trope.

We live in weird and diminished times. There is a game afoot that must be thwarted.
it is a concern if the stories are true. I also heard of 180,000 votes being counted for Sleepy Joe and not a single Trump vote among them. If true, that is really odd, and it does raise red flags. + republicans are apparently being stopped from observing the vote counting process in some democrat cities. Things seem very fishy from the things l have heard. I hope that only legal votes are being counted.
 

QuandoDio

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I heard


it is a concern if the stories are true. I also heard of 180,000 votes being counted for Sleepy Joe and not a single Trump vote among them. If true, that is really odd, and it does raise red flags. + republicans are apparently being stopped from observing the vote counting process in some democrat cities. Things seem very fishy from the things l have heard. I hope that only legal votes are being counted.

^^ I understand that even attempting to respond to this is to go down the rabbit hole but nonetheless here I am.

Thus repeated claim of republicans being stopped from observing the vote counting process is false and has been disproved but it seems to be spreading like wildfire. There have been republicans, members from Team Trump observing from close distance, ditto team Biden. But alas, this canard seems to be spreading...

If there are indeed cases of voter fraud, that should be exposed, investigated and dealt with but so far it is all smoke and mirrors but people keep believing this BS when a little investigative effort finds this to be false.
 

formby002

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Maybe. However, this is a very silly remark to make. But for corrupt Hilary, Dems would have won the election (3 million more votes btw). But for Iraq war or not, Mc Cain was the man. But for Clinton's foibles, Al Gore was the man etc.

The fact is , as it stands, Trump is losing/ lost. There needs to be a grown-up in the room who needs to have words with him and his cohorts and be dignified. Win some. Lose some.

Donald Trump Jr saying statements like ' we have to go to war' etc is as dangerous as it is moronic.
Again, if you consider how poor a president Trump is, and how badly he has handled the pandemic, then consider how close the election is, its hard to not come to that conclusion in my opinion.

Also, if you look at the data from the exit polls Trump did better in 2020 with every race and gender except white men.

1604674647353.png
 

QuandoDio

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Again, if you consider how poor a president Trump is, and how badly he has handled the pandemic, then consider how close the election is, its hard to not come to that conclusion in my opinion.

Also, if you look at the data from the exit polls Trump did better in 2020 with every race and gender except white men.

View attachment 35468
I don't disagree with the above. Dems have failed badly really. No doubt about it.
 

doghouse

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Does that include early voters and votes by mail? Because if not, it's doesn't really mean much.
Everyone needs to wait till the votes are all counted before trying any "analysis". There's millions to go.
 

doghouse

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There are statistical methods for making projections from small data sets.
There are. And they show these numbers changing quite dramatically because of vote location and method. Everything from here on out is going to be progressively worse for Trump. Pennsylvania for example should have been called for Biden two nights ago, but the public understanding of these models is so low that most of the modelers are holding of till they can show the whole data set.

This election isn't even close and it was emphatically stressed pre -election and probably needs to be reiterated now that exit polls are essentially worthless in 2020 and should not even be looked at until all votes are tallied. The fact Edison even published these is a joke. I'd recommend following Nate Cohn who is probably the best in the business at data analysis for the nitty gritty on teasing out the effects of VBM on vote share and timing.
 

formby002

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There are. And they show these numbers changing quite dramatically because of vote location and method. Everything from here on out is going to be progressively worse for Trump. Pennsylvania for example should have been called for Biden two nights ago, but the public understanding of these models is so low that most of the modelers are holding of till they can show the whole data set.

This election isn't even close and it was emphatically stressed pre -election and probably needs to be reiterated now that exit polls are essentially worthless in 2020 and should not even be looked at until all votes are tallied. The fact Edison even published these is a joke. I'd recommend following Nate Cohn who is probably the best in the business at data analysis for the nitty gritty on teasing out the effects of VBM on vote share and timing.
Oh I know how statistical modelling works, I've done loads of it in my youth, We (our firm) also employ specialists who do it.

Look, I've no skin is this game, as it doesn't much matter to me who the president is.

However, if those numbers do pan out to be correct, its a startling fact, but one that doesn't surprise me. For example, who are amongst main suffers of all those riots? Small business owners. And who tend to be small business owners in the areas where those riots have been happening? The sight of rich/wealthy/comfortable white kids rioting, and burning down those neighbourhoods is a wretched thing to watch.

Trump may be finished, but to borrow an American colloquialism, Trumpism still has lots of gas left in the tank. If the Dems think its back to business as usual, then they're in for a nasty shock.

We have a new reality I'm afraid, one far more fractious and I don't quite know what I think of that.
 

doghouse

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Oh I know how statistical modelling works, I've done loads of it in my youth, We (our firm) also employ specialists who do it.

Look, I've no skin is this game, as it doesn't much matter to me who the president is.

However, if those numbers do pan out to be correct, its a startling fact, but one that doesn't surprise me. For example, who are amongst main suffers of all those riots? Small business owners. And who tend to be small business owners in the areas where those riots have been happening? The sight of rich/wealthy/comfortable white kids rioting, and burning down those neighbourhoods is a wretched thing to watch.

Trump may be finished, but to borrow an American colloquialism, Trumpism still has lots of gas left in the tank. If the Dems think its back to business as usual, then they're in for a nasty shock.

We have a new reality I'm afraid, one far more fractious and I don't quite know what I think of that.

Sure, but specializing in the electoral modeling is a very specific thing. There are truck loads of absolute top shelf modelers here, who are completely at sea when it comes to this stuff.

And one thing that needs to be crystal clear. There are no widespread riots here. That's a complete fabrication. Life is normal other than the COVID stuff. I'm a small business owner, and we overwhelmingly voted Biden for stability, which is the only thing business wants. Look at the shift of white men from Trump to Biden, which is going to continue as votes get counted. College white men are already +3 for Biden. And once you get granular in the data, there is way more to unpack in the rest. The Cubans in Dade made headlines, but Biden actually carried the same amount in Dade as Hillary, Trump just increased his turnout. And in other parts of the country, hispanics crushed for Biden, in AZ and CO particularly. The big problem for the Democrats was down ballot, and it's completely their own fault. As an aside, Robbie Mook needs to never work again. Complete incompetence.

Anyway, as I say, once the data comes in, this Presidential election wasn't even close. In any of our lifetimes, Reagan 84 was the benchmark, and this will be the next closest in terms of vote share for turnout.

Trump may be finished, but to borrow an American colloquialism, Trumpism still has lots of gas left in the tank.
This is 100% true. I compulsively say I don't know what the answer is, but actually I do. The government actually needs to deliver for the people, which it hasn't done in a very long time. If someone could just deliver a decent healthcare option, they would have a coalition that would last decades.

I don't fancy the chances though.
 

formby002

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Sure, but specializing in the electoral modeling is a very specific thing. There are truck loads of absolute top shelf modelers here, who are completely at sea when it comes to this stuff.

And one thing that needs to be crystal clear. There are no widespread riots here. That's a complete fabrication. Life is normal other than the COVID stuff. I'm a small business owner, and we overwhelmingly voted Biden for stability, which is the only thing business wants. Look at the shift of white men from Trump to Biden, which is going to continue as votes get counted. College white men are already +3 for Biden. And once you get granular in the data, there is way more to unpack in the rest. The Cubans in Dade made headlines, but Biden actually carried the same amount in Dade as Hillary, Trump just increased his turnout. And in other parts of the country, hispanics crushed for Biden, in AZ and CO particularly. The big problem for the Democrats was down ballot, and it's completely their own fault. As an aside, Robbie Mook needs to never work again. Complete incompetence.

Anyway, as I say, once the data comes in, this Presidential election wasn't even close. In any of our lifetimes, Reagan 84 was the benchmark, and this will be the next closest in terms of vote share for turnout.



This is 100% true. I compulsively say I don't know what the answer is, but actually I do. The government actually needs to deliver for the people, which it hasn't done in a very long time. If someone could just deliver a decent healthcare option, they would have a coalition that would last decades.

I don't fancy the chances though.
Its not so much that there where riots happening everywhere (obviously there weren't) it was the way the media (mis)reported it . In Britain, in some quarters, you'd have thought that the US was on the verge of a Civil War!

Unfortunately, both our countries have a thoroughly disreputable, irresponsible, sensationalist grifter media. And it isn't helping things.
 
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