China - the next superpower


"The world faces a threat, not from a rising, powerful China, but from a China that is disaffected and in inevitable decline....China’s population will collapse from 1.4 billion people today to about one billion in 2050 and 390 million by 2100. By his reckoning, China’s share of the global population could decline from 22 per cent in 1980 to 11 per cent in 2050 and only 4 per cent in 2100."

Didn't they say it's not the number of people but the quality of people?

"But Canada, the United States and some countries in Europe partly offset the impact through immigration. China does not welcome immigrants, preferring to preserve the ethnic homogeneity of its mostly Han Chinese population."

We have some random migrants if you're willing to accept plane loads of them.
 

"The World Bank expects the Chinese economy to grow by 4.5% this year, just shy of Beijing’s official target of 5%. That may sound like a lot but it’s well below the country’s boom years, when annual growth reached double digits. Moreover, even that 4-5% figure should be treated with a pinch of salt. Chinese data isn’t always reliable, and some experts estimate the economy may actually be growing at something closer to 3%.

Even that might seem pretty good were it not that China lags the western economies by some distance. Despite four decades of spectacular growth the country’s per capita income is still only about a fifth of America’s. If its best years are behind it, its geopolitical competition with America will be over."

For whom the bell tolls?
 

"Sometimes the ships need replenishment - like fuel, food and water. So, they berth in a third country port, which is normal. So, the Indian government shouldn't make any fuss about it. Indian Ocean is not India's Ocean,"

Yeah. Just like Persian Gulf isn't just for Persians.
 

"Sometimes the ships need replenishment - like fuel, food and water. So, they berth in a third country port, which is normal. So, the Indian government shouldn't make any fuss about it. Indian Ocean is not India's Ocean,"

Yeah. Just like Persian Gulf isn't just for Persians.
Just like the East China Sea and the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits don't belong to China!
 

"The Russians have built modern military bases in their Arctic region and are building a new fleet of 13 polar icebreakers, while China has two medium-strength icebreakers and is building an even larger, more powerful vessel."

If the pole is supposed to melt, do you really need the icebreakers?

"Beijing’s activities in the Far North are becoming of increasing concern to Washington and Ottawa. Beijing’s designs on minerals in Canada’s North in part prompted the development of a joint U.S.-Canada strategy to reshape global critical mineral supply chains and reduce reliance on China. Beijing has moved aggressively in recent years to tighten its control of rare earth minerals, which are crucial for manufacturing high-tech and military products."

No iPhones and Galaxies for you.
 

"I suspect that more than 10 years of the crackdown and a seemingly endless parade of 'caged tigers' has most likely deepened public cynicism.

'Quite simply, if you spend a decade waging a 'life and death' battle with tigers and - 10 years into the hunt - you are bagging as many as you bagged when you started hunting, it strongly suggests you are not hunting them to extinction and might not have even significantly reduced their numbers.'"

It's like the war on drugs.
 

"China’s coast guard on Sunday began regular patrols around the Taiwan-controlled Kinmen islands after two Chinese nationals died trying to flee Taiwan’s coast guard after their boat entered prohibited waters."

Next up - a false flag invasion.
 

"Though largely ceremonial, the annual meeting of China’s legislature is the country’s biggest political event of the year. For the past 30 years, it has ended with a wide-ranging news conference by the premier, China’s No. 2 official after President Xi Jinping.

But this year, Premier Li Qiang will not be taking questions, the spokesperson for the legislature said on the eve of the meeting, which runs until March 11."

Answering questions by the press? No legitimate super power ever does that.
 

“If the United States says one thing and does another, where is its credibility as a major country?”

“If it gets jittery every time it hears the word ‘China,’ where is its confidence as a major country?”

Verbal smackdown.

Pointing Warning GIF by Amanda Cee Media
 

"This year's economic blueprint, delivered by Mr Li at the start of the session, laid out plans to open up more areas to foreign investment and reducing market access restrictions in sectors such as manufacturing and services.

These moves come after foreign investors were spooked by recent anti-espionage and data protection laws, as well as several sudden high-profile detentions of Chinese and foreign businessmen. Foreign direct investment in China recently fell to a 30-year low."

Open for business - as long as you accept our Internet restrictions, the odd sham trial for your ex pat workers, and turning over your patents/IP/capital to get access to our hungry domestic consumer base.
 

"'This kind of bullying behaviour that cannot win in fair competition disrupts companies' normal business activity, damages the confidence of international investors in the investment environment, and damages the normal international economic and trade order,' Mr Wang added.

'In the end, this will inevitably come back to bite the United States itself.'"

If you ban our social media platform, we will ban your Twitter, Insta, Facebook, etc. Oh wait you already do.
 

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"But the pension fund could run out of money by 2035, according to the state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences. That was a 2019 estimate, before the pandemic shutdowns, which hit China's economy hard.

China may also be forced to raise the age of retirement, which has been on the cards for years. It has one of the lowest retirement ages in the world - 60 for men, 55 for white-collar women and 50 for working-class women."

Time to raise retirement age to 70 like the rest of us.
 

Year 70 of the People's Republic of China: Xi Jinping.

Year 75 of the People's Republic of China: Xi Jinping.

Year 95 of the People's Republic of China: ???
 

“'China is much more participative and much more constructive,' said one Brazilian diplomat, requesting anonymity to discuss the negotiations.

A European diplomat noted that Chinese peers helped to build consensus this year on several fronts, including topics such as women’s rights where they had not been traditionally active. It looked like a conscious move to occupy a multilateral forum that Trump is likely to neglect, the diplomat added."

China. The world leader of women's rights.
 

"Two of the five ports adjacent to the canal, Balboa and Cristóbal, which sit on the Pacific and Atlantic sides respectively, have been operated by a subsidiary of Hutchison Port Holdings since 1997.

The company is a subsidiary of the publicly listed CK Hutchison Holdings, a Hong Kong-based conglomerate founded by Hong Kong businessman Li Ka-shing."

For the record, Li Ka-shing plays both sides - the CCP and the democratic Hong Kong. But he's 96 so you can probably wait him out like Rupert Murdoch.

If only "the West" supported democratic forces in Hong Kong and maybe they would have found a friendly operator.
 

“The simple way to look at it, you should be paid enough of a dividend ... for you to take the pain of the fact that the recovery might not happen in valuations,”

“You’re being paid for that patience. If you’re not, then it’s not worth it.”

That's promising. Is that statement in the investor's prospectus?
 

"While the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has jumped from roughly 110% in 2019 to more than 120% today, Beijing’s central government debt burden has only risen modestly to around 60% at the end of the third quarter of 2024.

China has also been successful in deploying industrial policy – its ‘Made in China 2025′ program – to become the dominant player in several pivotal emerging industries, especially climate mitigation.

How successful? China led in just three of 64 critical technologies between 2003 and 2007, but then became the lead country in 57 of those technologies between 2019 and 2023, according to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute."

"Despite all the hand-wringing about China’s recent economic performance, large-cap Chinese equities, as represented by the U.S.-listed ETF symbol FXI, actually outperformed the S&P 500 last year in USD terms. And the Chinese bond market rallied sharply over the year, meaning many China-based 60/40 stock/bond portfolios would have outperformed their U.S. equivalents."

China. You can make some money here.
 

“Applicants must be younger than 35 and ‘maintain a firm political stance’ in line with the ruling Chinese Communist Party and its leader, Xi Jinping, it said.

They are also required to have a background in astrophysics, Earth and space exploration technology, astronomy, optical engineering, or aerospace science and technology, with a master’s degree or higher.”

If I am party member do I still need the degrees?
 

"A range of deals Prime Minister Mark Brown signed with China without consulting the public or New Zealand – an ally to which the Cooks is closely tied – has caused increasing irritation and concern."

When you leave mentoring micro nations to the likes of New Zealand...
 

“Standing in front of a table of 30 mice, Leung held up two with identical feel and weight. The Chinese option, which was cheaper and more powerful, had been outselling its Western counterpart, he said.”

The western mice are not made in China anymore?
 

Russia invades Ukraine. Israel occupies Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. The US threatens to take over Panama, Greenland and Canada. India and Pakistan war over Kashmir. China takes.... A sand bank.

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"A Reuters report quoting American officials said Pakistan possibly had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets. Pakistan claiming victory after hugely relying on Chinese weapons systems in an active combat situation is being seen by some experts as a boost for Beijing's defence industry but some also disagree with the claim.

Beijing also hasn't made any comment on reports of the J-10 taking down Indian fighter jets, including the Rafale. But unconfirmed reports of the J-10 bringing down a Western weapon system has triggered jubilation and triumphalism on Chinese social media."

China vs. France! Fight!

x1080
 

"In one example, OpenAI banned ChatGPT accounts that generated social media posts on political and geopolitical topics relevant to China, including criticism of a Taiwan-centric video game, false accusations against a Pakistani activist and content related to the closure of USAID."

You mean DeepSeek couldn't do this?
 

"They simply said, let's forget about that, let's set that aside. They've never dealt with the history – and now the problem has come back to haunt them again."

The best solution is revenge. History teaches us.
 

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“Africa is a big market, people need everything here, and they want it cheap...For us, it is opportunity. In China, competition is too much. Here, if you work hard, you can make profit.” Xin Lin

“I came because friends told me business is good here. And yes, it is good, but it is also very hard. Customers always want cheaper, cheaper. Profit is small. But if you sell a lot, you can get something.” Zhang Xinghao

"Here, a Tanzanian trader typically sells a pair of plastic sandals for 5,000 shillings (less than $3) – but the same sandals in a nearby Chinese-owned shop are just 3,500 shillings. A kettle that would cost 22,000 shillings at a local stall is just 15,000 across the street.

'Why should I pay more?' asked Anna Mwakyusa, leaving a Chinese shop with a bag of plastic plates. 'I know these things don’t last long, but I can buy two for the price of one.'”



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