Its The Economy, Stupid - Economic & Business News From Around The World

The Ernesto

Well-Known Member
Messages
278
Most managers are winding back equity exposure from what I hear.

And countries are buying gold again! Think I saw that Poland ponied up for seven tonnes recently.

Interesting that the euphoria has lasted so long that there is a broad movement taking proactive action to anticipate the fall, something I don't recall seeing in the past.
 

Pimpernel Smith

Well-Known Member
Messages
3,218
The oil & gas sector tends to buck the curve and looks set to come out of a long depression in 2019 with a return to capex expenditure and the mega projects in 2019/20, whilst the rest of the economy looks set for the reverse. Similar to the UK in the early 1980s. The exposure of renewables e.g. offshore wind farms will be a big boost as well to natural gas.
 

doghouse

King Of The Elite Idiots
Moderator
Supporter
Messages
9,990
Most managers are winding back equity exposure from what I hear.

And countries are buying gold again! Think I saw that Poland ponied up for seven tonnes recently.

Interesting that the euphoria has lasted so long that there is a broad movement taking proactive action to anticipate the fall, something I don't recall seeing in the past.
Yep. I met with my guy the other week, and he and I both agreed it's time to take a pause.
 

Pimpernel Smith

Well-Known Member
Messages
3,218
great talk by big dick richard wolff on economic nationalism. you'll like this Dropbear doghouse

I liked the bit where he blamed Venezuela's predicament on predatory global capitalism. Not much on supporting his position with why, onlt this is the way it is. He's not going to convert the unconverted with that I am afraid.
 

Rambo

The Trollest Of Trolls
Moderator
Supporter
Messages
28,241
I liked the bit where he blamed Venezuela's predicament on predatory global capitalism. Not much on supporting his position with why, onlt this is the way it is. He's not going to convert the unconverted with that I am afraid.
who is he trying to convert? he's explaining what economic nationalism is, not running for office.
 

Rambo

The Trollest Of Trolls
Moderator
Supporter
Messages
28,241
https://medium.com/@walt.t.downing/the-next-financial-crisis-is-on-the-horizon-4a65d2589580

The next financial crisis is on the horizon
And its foundations lie in the response to the 2008 financial crisis.



In the world of securities trading it is considered poor form to talk about “timing”. You’ll rarely hear business news talking heads recommending exiting the equity market and getting into counter-cyclical investments. That’s because those with enough sense want to be the first ones out of a failing market and they know that if they raise warning flags, they may get muscled out in the race for the exit.

But listen close to the news or read between the lines in the financial press. The next financial crisis is upon us and with a bit of diligence you can start seeing the cracks in the global economy (and how those cracks were formed in the 2008 crisis)

Maybe you skimmed a headline on the state of the Turkish Lira. Did you catch Goldman whiff on a Fed stress test? What’s this chatter about corporate indebtedness? The clues are right in front of us if you just dig a little deeper.

Emerging Markets
So what happened with the Turkish Lira and why is it important? Over the last 6 months the Turkish Lira dropped 40% against the US dollar. The US media blamed the Trump administration and their economic retaliation for an obscure American pastor arrested in Turkey. The Turkish government blamed a myriad of factors including the age old Zionist conspiracy. The facts are much different.



Turkish Lira/US dollar over the last six months courtesy of www.x-rates.com
Since 2008 both the Turkish private and public sector have been gorging on foreign currency denominated debt to the tune of hundreds of billions in US dollars. The majority of these debts being denominated in US dollars means that Turkish borrowers must first convert their Turkish Lira to US dollars before making debt repayments. This is all well and good while the Lira/USD rate is stable. However since the US Federal Reserve began its policy of raising interest rates, the US dollar has appreciated vis-à-vis the Turkish Lira. This means that those Turkish borrowers are now spending more of those Lira to buy the same amount of USD to make debt repayment (making it more expensive today to make the same repayment as yesterday).

As the US dollar went up, more and more of that Turkish held debt became unsustainable. This led to worries in the capital class that the Turkish economy was becoming unstable and investors withdrew their money from the country. This withdrawal takes the literal form of selling Turkish Lira, which plunged the exchange rate further, thus creating a cycle where the debt repayments became more expensive, destabilising the economy further, leading to further foreign capital withdrawal which further devalued the currency etc etc.

Now, Turkey isn’t exactly a big player in the international economy. In terms of GDP it is equivalent to the Netherlands. However, this is a problem happening through out the developing world. Argentina, South Africa, India, Russia, Brazil, are all suffering from currency devaluations and impending financial crisis relating to foreign currency denominated debt. These countries were all part of the emerging market class that gave some hope to the global economy during the financial downturn a decade ago.

What the hell happened?
Well it’s a theme we’ll see a few more times today. In 2008 global capitalism pooped the bed and almost died. In order to stimulate the global economy and stave off the end of capitalism, the global capital class as led by the first world central banks fundamentally repaired the economy by creating federal jobs guarantees, socialised medicine, bailing out home owners, nationalising the financial sector and jailing bankers.

Lol j/k.

No, the worlds central banks kick started the global economy by ignoring the fundamental problems and lowering interest rates to near zero for institutional borrowers (institutional borrowers being code for the capital class and not you working class schmucks trying to get a mortgage). So the capital class took all the free money the central banks would give them and put it in a few places.

First they dumped it into the stock market where they have made out like bandits over the last decade (which is explains the increasing divergence between stock market returns and the actual day to day economy reality of most folks). But after a while trading on wall st gets boring. So what did they do with that interest free money? They lent it to foreign companies and governments at higher-than-zero interest rates (the easiest profit making scheme in town).

Near interest free loans poured into the stock market following the 2008 financial crisis
With central banks sloshing out this money, and foreign companies and countries eager for the foreign capital injection, trillions of dollars went into these countries. But with the US dollar rising against emerging market currencies, those trillions of dollars in debts have become unsustainable. Those on the other side of these debts (namely European and US banks) are at risk of massive losses owing to defaults on these debts.

The crisis is almost identical to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis which set back the economies of south East Asia by decades and almost melted down the global economy. With global capitalism becoming more interconnected in the subsequent two decades, it’s hard to imagine that trouble in emerging markets won’t hurt first world economies.



Thai Baht during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis — an eerie foreshadow of the current day emerging marketsMeanwhile at home
The US domestic market was also a big recipient of those interest free loans. Google the term “subprime corporate debt” and try not to shudder. US based companies have amassed nearly $3 trillion in debt since the sluice gates were opened after the 2008 meltdown.

The big question is how will those companies fair with their debt repayment obligations as interest rates go up and global and domestic demand falters. When interests rates were as low as they were in the post crash period the risk of lending are almost nil. That money needed to be parked somewhere to stimulate demand. Lending standards get relaxed and companies that have limited means to repay in the event of a downturn still get the loan.

These companies may float along just fine while the US domestic economy is humming along. However serious defaults are only a small shock away. Just like in the emerging markets, it is US and European banks on the other end of these loans. We will see losses in the financial sector equivalent to those seen in 2008, if a global slow down or unexpected shock (like a jump in oil prices) were to drive defaults by both emerging market debtors and US corporate debtors simultaneously.

When the banks started going down in 2008 the problem for the broader economy was a lack of liquidity. This time companies (aka employers) will be hamstrung by their own inability to make debt repayments in addition to whatever contagion gets spread by the financial sector.

I’m sure it will all be fine…
One of the safeguards put in place following the 2008 crash was that the “too big to fail” banks would need to pass annual “stress tests”. Basically these tests were designed to ensure that the banks would have enough capital reserves to survive an economic shock. The banks must pass these tests before they can pay out profits to their shareholders.

You might have missed it but this year Goldman Sachs failed its stress test. Theoretically this should have precluded them from distributing profits to their shareholders. However given the cozy relationship between financial regulators and financiers, Goldman was allowed to pay dividends and basically told “please do better next year”.

So here we have it folks
As a response to the 2008 crash the world is now saturated with more debt than it can conceivably handle. At the same time, the biggest bank of all is not in a position to handle a financial crisis based on guidelines set forth to prevent another 2008 style crisis. Given that US financial regulators are already giving them a pass, could we really expect the banks to be held to account if the economy should seriously falter? Of course not.

After 2008 the capital class saved themselves by plunging interest rates. Those rates are still relatively low despite the US Fed raising interest rates this years. This means that the central banks will be limited in their ability to use monetary policy to stave off financial crises. So not only are we looking at a debt bomb similar to that of 2008, the tools used to kick start demand have been used up.

The liberal response
When this coming financial crisis occurs, the democratic establishment will try to pin the blame squarely on Trump and republican legislatures. While the grotesque tax cuts and trade wars will ultimately speed up the crisis, the foundation for the crisis was planted by the Obama administration.

Rigorous financial regulation was not enacted, too big to fail banks were not broken up, bankers were not held responsible, nor was there any meaningful attempt to improve the lives of working Americans by repairing the broken social safety net.

Instead capital accumulation for those responsible for the crisis was allowed to proceed unabated, and working Americans lives only got more precarious.We cannot allow the democratic establishment to claim to have the answers for the coming financial crisis.

The Left
Indeed it is imperative that the Left not be caught off guard by the next financial crisis. The Left must be ready for the coming crisis to advocate for changes that will fundamentally restructure the economy for the benefit of the working class while simultaneously disempowering the capital class. The Left must be ready with mutual aid for all those this crisis will hurt.

If we are not out there showing folks how this disruptive boom bust cycle is the very nature of capitalism, if we cannot show them a vision of an economic system that is just and fair, if we cannot be out helping our fellow workers to survive in times of turmoil, they will become even more vulnerable to the snake oil salesmen on the right who will promise them a return to glory by punishing minority scapegoats.

The next financial crisis is right in front of us. Let’s prepare now for how we respond.
 

Rambo

The Trollest Of Trolls
Moderator
Supporter
Messages
28,241
scott walker is a fucking idiot


Wisconsin’s $4.1 billion Foxconn boondoggle
Gov. Scott Walker promised billions to get a Foxconn factory, but now he’s running away from it


Photo by Andy Manis / Getty Images
It was a veritable lovefest in Milwaukee in July 2017 when Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Foxconn chairman Terry Gou announced their plan to create a heavily subsidized manufacturing plant in southeastern Wisconsin. Walker gushed that Gou, who founded his Taiwan-based company in 1974, was “one of the most remarkable business leaders in the world.” Gou returned the favor by saying, “I’ve never seen this type of governor or leader yet in this world.” Effusive, yet ambiguous.
The details of the deal were famously written on the back of a napkin when Gou and the Republican governor first met: a $3 billion state subsidy in return for Foxconn’s $10 billion investment in a Generation 10.5 LCD manufacturing plant that would create 13,000 jobs.
Key points
  • Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker wooed Foxconn with a huge subsidy plan, which was first drawn up on the back of a napkin
  • It now totals $4.1 billion, much of it in cash, and many doubt taxpayers will ever be repaid
  • Now, Foxconn no longer plans to build a Generation 10.5 factory manufacturing panels for 75-inch TVs
  • Instead, it plans to build a smaller factory manufacturing smaller panels and requiring far less investment
  • Foxconn maintains it will still create 13,000 jobs, but they will mostly be for knowledge workers developing an ecosystem it calls “AI 8K+5G”
  • Foxconn was given large exemptions from environmental regulations, raising concerns about pollution
  • The Walker administration refused to talk to The Verge for this story
The size of the subsidy was stunning. It was far and away the largest in Wisconsin history and the largest government handout to a foreign company ever given in America. Like most states, Wisconsin had given subsidies to companies in the past, but never higher than $35,000 per job. Foxconn’s subsidy was $230,000 per job.
But Walker was elected in 2010 on a promise of creating 250,000 new jobs in the state in his first term as governor. Six years into his tenure, he still was far short. Running for a third term in 2018, he badly needed a big win.
And the Foxconn deal was beyond big. Some predicted that bringing the company that manufactures devices for Apple and many other tech giants to the state would create the “Silicon Valley of Wisconsin,” which is no small claim in a state that’s far from a high-tech hotbed. Conservatives predicted Walker’s re-election would be a slam dunk on the back of the deal.
But what seemed so simple on a napkin has turned out to be far more complicated and messy in real life. As the size of the subsidy has steadily increased to a jaw-dropping $4.1 billion, Foxconn has repeatedly changed what it plans to do, raising doubts about the number of jobs it will create. Instead of the promised Generation 10.5 plant, Foxconn now says it will build a much smaller Gen 6 plant, which would require one-third of the promised investment, although the company insists it will eventually hit the $10 billion investment target. And instead of a factory of workers building panels for 75-inch TVs, Foxconn executives now say the goal is to build “ecosystem” of buzzwords called “AI 8K+5G” with most of the manufacturing done by robots.
Polls now show most Wisconsin voters don’t believe the subsidy will pay off for taxpayers, and Walker didn’t even mention the deal in a November 2017 speech announcing his run for re-election. He now trails in that re-election bid against a less-than-electric Democratic candidate, the bland state superintendent of public instruction Tony Evers.
It all seemed so promising. So how did everything go so bad so quickly?

The Foxconn construction site in Racine County.

Photo by Joshua Lott for The Verge
When Walker signed the Foxconn deal in November 2017, the details matched those jotted on the napkin: the state promised a $3 billion state subsidy if the company invested $10 billion in a plant that created 13,000 jobs.
The size of Wisconsin’s subsidy quickly began to grow, as spelled out in state legislation passed about six weeks later and implemented by the Walker administration. By December 2017, the public cost had grown to include $764 million in new tax incentives from local governments in Racine County, which is just 40 minutes south of Milwaukee where the plant was to be located. Other additions included $164 million for road and highway connections built to service the plant, plus $140 million for a new electric transmission line to Foxconn that would be paid for by all 5 million ratepayers of the public utility We Energies. With other small costs added, the total Foxconn subsidy hit $4.1 billion — a stunning $1,774 per household in Wisconsin.
THE TOTAL FOXCONN SUBSIDY HIT $4.1 BILLION, A STUNNING $1,774 PER HOUSEHOLD IN WISCONSIN
Back when the subsidy was $3 billion, Wisconsin’s non-partisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau estimated that it would take until 2043 for taxpayers to recoup the subsidy. This long payback period was due to Walker and Republicans effectively cutting the state’s corporate income tax for manufacturers to zero in 2011. This meant the subsidies to Foxconn would not be a tax write-off, but billions in cash that would be paid back by state income taxes paid by Foxconn workers. At $4.1 billion, the payback date for the state was likely 2050 or later.
Some doubt the subsidy will ever actually be recouped. “Realistically, the payback period for a $100,000 per job deal is not 20 years, not 42 years, but somewhere between hundreds of years and never,” wrote Jeffrey Dorfman, an economics professor at the University of Georgia, in a story for Forbes. “At $230,000 [or more] per job, there is no hope of recapturing the state funds spent.” And this was before the subsidy had risen to $4.1 billion, or about $315,000 per job.

Traffic on I-94 near the Foxconn site in Racine County.

Photo by Joshua Lott for The Verge
In retrospect, it’s clear that Walker had a strong hand to play in negotiations with Foxconn. The company had to locate in a Great Lakes state because of the huge amount of water needed to clean the glass used in manufacturing LCD screens. And no other Great Lakes state came close to offering the $4.1 billion Foxconn is getting. Michigan came the closest, offering $2.3 billion, but it was partly a tax subsidy rather than cash. As for Ohio, fellow Republican Gov. John Kasich condemned the Wisconsin deal. “I’ll tell you one thing,” he said, “it’s not going to take us 40 years to make back the investment we make. We don’t buy deals.”
Over the summer, Walker’s response to such criticism was pointed. ”There’s a whole lot of people out there scrambling to try and come up with a reason not to like this,” he said in July of last year. “They can go suck lemons. The rest of us are going to cheer and figure out how we are going to get this thing going forward.” Several weeks later, he called the deal a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” that will be “transformational” for the state. “These LCD displays will be made in America for the very first time, right here in the state of Wisconsin.”
”THEY CAN GO SUCK LEMONS.”
The Walker administration did not return repeated requests for comment about when taxpayers would recoup the Foxconn subsidies.
In May, the Nikkei Asian Review reported that Foxconn was greatly scaling back its plans for the plant. Foxconn released a statement “categorically” denying this, but by late June, company officials conceded they would not be building the kind of plant Gou had originally promised Walker.
Instead of a Generation 10.5 plant, which produces 10-foot by 11-foot panels for 75-inch TV screens, Foxconn would be building a Generation 6 plant that only produces 5-foot by 6-foot glass panels. A Gen 6 plant would require about a $2.5 billion investment, according to Bob O’Brien, a partner at Display Supply Chain Consultants, rather than the $10 billion Foxconn initially promised.
THEY WOULD NOT BE BUILDING THE KIND OF PLANT GOU HAD ORIGINALLY PROMISED WALKER
Foxconn had hoped to have New York-based Corning build a factory nearby, as the large glass panels required for a Generation 10 plant cannot be transported long distances. But Corning officials made it clear they’d need a subsidy for as much as two-thirds of the cost of this facility, and officials within the Walker administration, suffering continuing criticism about the Foxconn subsidy, ruled out any more handouts. The Walker administration, it seems, had not checked to see if Foxconn could deliver on its promises without help.
Foxconn spokesperson Louis Woo told BizTimes that a co-located glass plant “would no longer be a necessity” with a Gen 6 plant. “We can just ship [glass] from somewhere else… because the pieces of glass that would be required would be a lot smaller.”

Foxconn’s Louis Woo and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

Photo by Scott Olson / Getty Images
But Foxconn officials also said that the company was still committed to a $10 billion investment and 13,000 jobs, adding it might eventually add a Gen 10.5 plant, but it would get there in “phases.” The phases were not spelled out.
Just seven weeks later, in late August, the company announced the plans had changed yet again — far more radically. Woo told the Racine Journal Times that Foxconn would never add a Gen 10.5 plant to its Racine campus, despite past statements, because by the time it was built, the market would be glutted by other manufacturers in China.
And even the Gen 6 panels might not be manufactured in Racine for long. “We are not really interested in television,” Woo told the newspaper, though he said the company wants to build America’s first thin-film transistor (TFT) fabrication, which can be used in LCD products. Rather, Woo said, workers at the Wisconsin plant will be focused on figuring out new ways to use Foxconn’s display, cellular, and AI technology, building out an “ecosystem” Woo calls “AI 8K+5G.”
“AI 8K+5G”
All this means Foxconn needs far fewer assembly line workers. “If, six months ago, you asked me, what would be the mix of labor? I would pull out the experience that we have in China and say, ‘Well, 75 percent assembly line workers, 25 percent engineers and managers,’” Woo said. But “now it looks like about 10 percent assembly line workers, 90 percent knowledge workers.”
Almost all the actual assembly line work, he added, will be done by robots.
That’s an astonishing change to the company’s plans. For starters, it ends the hope of local politicians that lower-skilled, mostly minority workers from Racine and Milwaukee might be able to get a job.
ALMOST ALL THE ACTUAL ASSEMBLY LINE WORK WILL BE DONE BY ROBOTS
Wisconsin would not be the first government Foxconn has shifted its promises to. Foxconn had promised to invest $5 billion and create 50,000 jobs in India, only to cut it to a fraction of that. “Similar results were seen in Vietnam, where Foxconn committed to a $5 billion investment in 2007, and in Brazil, where Foxconn spoke of a $10 billion plan in 2011,” and the plans were never realized, The Washington Post reported. And then there is Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where Foxconn’s promise to invest $30 million and hire 500 workers never happened.
In a statement to The Verge, Foxconn said it remains “committed to creating 13,000 high-value jobs and investing US$10 billion.” The company also said its “plans have always been associated with a phased approach to the development of the Wisconn Valley Science and Technology Park,” with the first phase consisting of the Generation 6 Thin-Film-Transistor facility and the next phase consisting of “future-generation research and development and manufacturing facilities.”
The Walker administration did not return requests for comment about how it evaluated the feasibility of Foxconn’s initial plan, the change in factory types, or the change in types of workers needed.

Foxconn’s construction site in Racine County.

Photo by Joshua Lott for The Verge
Meanwhile, concerns about Foxconn’s impact on the environment have started to grow.
The LCD screens being made by Foxconn require benzene, chromium, cadmium, mercury, zinc, and copper, according to Peter Adriaens, a professor of environmental engineering at the University of Michigan. These materials are hazardous if improperly discharged. A report by the City of Milwaukee’s Legislative Reference Bureau on Foxconn’s history noted that “as of 2013, 25 to 60 million acres of China’s arable land were polluted with heavy metals due to electronics factories,” and Foxconn was a significant contributor. Foxconn told The Verge that it will build a Zero Liquid Discharge system, “which will go beyond any local, state and federal requirements relating to industrial water discharge.”
The Walker administration had also exempted Foxconn from the state’s usual environmental rules, allowing it to discharge materials into wetlands and reroute streams during construction and operation. The state also exempted the company from doing an Environmental Impact Statement. At stake was a huge swath of land: the plan calls for Foxconn to eventually own 4.5 square miles of what had been mostly farmland. Adriaens says these exemptions and the fact that Wisconsin is allowing Foxconn to operate unusually close to Lake Michigan are “red flags.”
THE ENVIRONMENTAL EXEMPTIONS AND THE FACT THAT FOXCONN WILL OPERATE UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN ARE “RED FLAGS”
The Walker administration also agreed to allow Foxconn to draw massive amounts of water from Lake Michigan. Foxconn would use as much as 7 million gallons per day from the lake, of which 39 percent will be lost through evaporation. Environmentalists charged that the plan violates the provisions of the Great Lake Compact signed by the Great Lakes states and Canadian provinces to protect the lakes, and they filed a legal action to stop this.
Documents filed with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources by Foxconn also show the company will cause significant air pollution, including hundreds of tons of carbon monoxide, particulates, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and volatile organic compounds per year. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the plant will emit enough volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides to make it one of the worst such polluters in southeastern Wisconsin.
DOCUMENTS SHOW THAT THE COMPANY WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AIR POLLUTION
The federal Environmental Protection Agency might have stood in the way, but its former director, Scott Pruitt, made a ruling to override pollution standards established under the Obama administration, giving Foxconn more leeway. As a result, the Racine plant could eventually emit 229 tons of nitrogen oxides, 240 tons of carbon monoxide, 52 tons of particulate matter, four tons of sulfur dioxide, and 276 tons of volatile organic compounds per year, Milwaukee’s BizTimes reported. In a statement to The Verge, Foxconn said it will make great efforts to reduce pollution, adding it will “invest in world-class control technology to minimize air emissions from the plant.”
The Walker administration did not return requests for comment about what environmental protection measures were being taken.

The Foxconn Innovation Center near the Foxconn manufacturing construction site in Mt. Pleasant, Wisconsin.

Photo by Joshua Lott for The Verge
While all of this was going on, Foxconn was buying real estate for “innovation centers” to spread investment around the state.
In February 2018, Foxconn announced it would be buying a seven-story building in downtown Milwaukee for its new North American headquarters and the “Wisconn Valley Innovation Center.” In June, news came that it would buy a six-story building in Green Bay to create another “innovation center,” employing more than 200 engineers. In mid-July, Foxconn was back to announce yet another “innovation center,” this time in Eau Claire, to begin operations in early 2019, with 150 employees.
In both cities, the company said it wanted to attract top talent from area universities. But Milwaukee, Green Bay, and Eau Claire are homes to some of the state’s lesser universities, and it was unclear why these graduates couldn’t simply drive down to the Racine plant to apply for jobs.
FOXCONN HAS BEEN BUYING REAL ESTATE FOR “INNOVATION CENTERS”
Equally unclear was the economic advantage for Foxconn to have three different small innovation centers spread around the state. Using virtually the same language in both Green Bay and Eau Claire, Foxconn officials declared the goal was to “inspire innovative ideas and catalyze cutting-edge solutions from companies and entrepreneurs” in the area. But critics suggested these small satellites were being added to help Walker make his case that the Foxconn deal would help the entire state.
By late August, less than three months before the election, Foxconn announced more bells and whistles: it would contribute $100 million to create a new research facility at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and use $25 million for a new state venture capital fund. That $125 million total represented just 3 percent of the $4.1 billion subsidy the company stood to collect.

Walls rising at the Foxconn construction site in Racine County.

Photo by Joshua Lott for The Verge
Shortly after the Wisconsin deal was signed, Walker was touting the Foxconn deal in campaign-style speeches across the state. But by October 2017, just a month after the legislature passed the Foxconn deal, a poll showed only 38 percent of the people in southeastern Wisconsin, where the plant would be located, thought the plant would be a net positive for the state. This was followed by March 2018 poll, which showed that 66 percent of people in the state believed their local businesses wouldn’t benefit from the Foxconn deal, and only 25 percent thought it would be beneficial.
Even after seven months of announcing new innovation centers and contributions, Foxconn hadn’t moved the needle much in the election: polls still showed the majority of people in the state didn’t believe the Foxconn deal would help them.
This was dreadful news for Walker, who suddenly stopped talking about Foxconn. He didn’t even mention the deal in a November 2017 speech announcing his run for re-election. It was also bad news for Foxconn, as every Democrat running for governor proceeded to condemn the deal. Both Walker and Foxconn now needed to sell this deal to the voters.
POLLS SHOWED THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE IN THE STATE DIDN’T BELIEVE THE FOXCONN DEAL WOULD HELP THEM
As Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin put it, if the company “really wants all the benefits that they were promised… they have to prefer the incumbent who negotiated the deal over the unknown of a Democratic governor.”
Foxconn still insists that it will create 13,000 jobs by 2023. That rapid scale-up might have been possible with the kind of manufacturing plants and labor force the company has in China, but for Foxconn to hire that many top-flight “knowledge workers” in Wisconsin as it transforms its approach to create new technology seems incredibly ambitious.
In reality, there is little pushing Foxconn to invest as much money or create as many jobs as promised because Walker squandered his leverage over the company. Yes, the full subsidy promised comes in increments, as the capital investments are made and jobs created by Foxconn. But all the other subsidies, worth more than $1 billion, will be paid regardless of money invested or jobs created. A smaller plant with fewer workers could lower the total tax bill considerably, but it would actually cost the state more on a per-job basis.
WALKER SQUANDERED HIS LEVERAGE OVER THE COMPANY
The deal, says Matthew Rothschild, executive director of the good government group Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, “is a ridiculous way to do economic development. It exposes a lie we’ve been told over and over that the cupboard is bare, that we don’t have enough money for our schools or our roads or our health care. But then when a company from Taiwan comes knocking, all of a sudden there’s $4 billion of taxpayer money to shell out. We could have helped a whole lot of small businesses for that kind of money.”
But local governments have already begun using eminent domain to buy up homes and push out residents in Racine County, where Foxconn is now building its plant. And state and local governments have already spent heavily on building the infrastructure Foxconn requires. Should Walker lose, a Democratic governor will have a hard time undoing this deal.
Whatever the impact of Foxconn on Wisconsin’s economy, there is no doubt about the bill to be paid. For the taxpayers of Wisconsin, their children, and perhaps their grandchildren, the Foxconn deal will be added to their annual cost of living for decades, if not generations, to come.
 

Rambo

The Trollest Of Trolls
Moderator
Supporter
Messages
28,241
Some people obviously cannot volunteer. They are too valuable to be accepted. I am sure some of the rubbish were volunteered.
no fwiffers. its corporate claptrap for a round of mass layoffs.
 

Fwiffo

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Messages
7,345

Fwiffo

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Messages
7,345
France summons Italian envoy over Africa remarks

"If people are leaving today it's because European countries, France above all, have never stopped colonising dozens of African countries. He said if it wasn't for Africa, France would rank 15th among world economies, not in the top six.
...
He accused France of manipulating the economies of African countries that use the CFA franc, a colonial-era currency backed by the French treasury."

Searching on Wikipedia: "The CFA franc is the name of two currencies used in parts of West and Central African countries which are guaranteed by the French treasury."

then again is the US practising imperialism when so many currencies peg against it?
 

Fwiffo

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Messages
7,345
Germany’s economy’s: Should we be worried?

There's no question that the German economy has hit a difficult patch. The widest measure of economic activity, gross domestic product (GDP), declined in the third quarter of last year by 0.2% and failed to grow in the following three months.”
 

Fwiffo

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Messages
7,345
Why Canada is a guinea pig for global markets

"Canada seems like a logical place to go because we are like the US but we are also like Australia, we are like the UK, we're still a little bit like Germany, we're still a little bit like Sweden and Norway and other countries like that."


..never mind we have the highest population of Tamils outside Sri Lanka, a large swath of Filipinos, Somalis, Iranians, etc.
 

Rambo

The Trollest Of Trolls
Moderator
Supporter
Messages
28,241
All my pension is in US general ETF. The current administration has been a boon.
and it'll likely stay that way up until the crash. but its coming. only a matter of when at this point.
 

Fwiffo

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Messages
7,345
and it'll likely stay that way up until the crash. but its coming. only a matter of when at this point.
The one last December? I started a new job so my new pension plan kicked in around the time people said they should sell off. Then the GDP grew and the employment numbers continued to be good and in spite of what Journeyman says, the stock market thinks the US is winning the trade war. It went up 18% in 4 or 5 months.
 

Fwiffo

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Messages
7,345
Id start to diversify now. I already moved a third into bond funds
Markets are closed. I'll do it tonight so it's end of trading day tomorrow. I know I will beat myself if it goes up another 10 percent.
 

Rambo

The Trollest Of Trolls
Moderator
Supporter
Messages
28,241
Markets are closed. I'll do it tonight so it's end of trading day tomorrow. I know I will beat myself if it goes up another 10 percent.
i did it months ago and lost out on some gains. i figure i'll make it up when the whole thing comes crashing down.
 

Fwiffo

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Messages
7,345
i did it months ago and lost out on some gains. i figure i'll make it up when the whole thing comes crashing down.
YTD I am making 12-15 percent. I think that's pretty close to the first year of his presidency. Cashing out. My choices are dire though. During the Great Recession I had everything in fixed income and with zero interest rate it meant I lost money. It looks just as dire now; can't even beat the fees. Bonds it is then.
 

Thruth

thicker but more pliant than horsehide
Moderator
Supporter
Messages
19,252
Ironically I don't see Vancouver there. We get all investors here. Gadaffi's son owned a penthouse down the street from where I live.
This was April's talley. Vancouver and surrounding area. Draw your cutoff line wherever you like. Was just there and there are a shitload of cranes.
1563942275417.png
 

Fwiffo

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Messages
7,345

"Speaking prior to boarding Air Force One near his Bedminster club in New Jersey, Trump said, 'I don't see a recession.'

'I mean, the world is in a recession right now,' he continued. 'And although that's too big a statement, but if you look at China, China is doing very, very poorly. They've had, I just saw a report, they've had the worst year in 27 years because of what I've done.'

When a reporter pointed out that some economists say Trump should prepare for a recession, Trump said, 'I'm prepared for everything.'

'Our consumers are rich,; he added. 'I did a tax cut. They're loaded up with money.'"

Obviously Americans are all loaded.
 
Top Bottom