Money Management and Investing Thread

I need investment options for one with no faith in the Federal Reserve note or the stock market, what are my options beyond precious metals and land?
 
Hmm. The Kiva loan thing is new to me, but I dig that Opus Dei was using hem for shenanigans. Precious metals are great for long term, risky for shorter periods. The bitcoin worries me despite liking parts of the concept. I looked into investing in foreign currency but that turned out to generally be risky and inconvenient.

So what type of rate is considered good in moderately secure investments nowadays?
 
Basically, outperform the market.

A 7% return is generally seen as an expected return on lower risk investments.

What has you so concerned that you're looking for such a narrowly focused investment?
 
I'm very risk averse in that I have low tolerance for losing money. However there is the opportunity cost of parking stuff in sound low-return investments. That's why I love precious metals, as the chance of losing money in the long run is practically zero.

Quantitative Easing has me very sure that we're soon to have inflation similar to the Wiemar Republic. The instant that oil stops being traded in US dollars, it's really over. The stock market is clearly being manipulated.
 
Russell Street said:
I'm very risk averse in that I have low tolerance for losing money. However there is the opportunity cost of parking stuff in sound low-return investments. That's why I love precious metals, as the chance of losing money in the long run is practically zero.

Quantitative Easing has me very sure that we're soon to have inflation similar to the Wiemar Republic. The instant that oil stops being traded in US dollars, it's really over. The stock market is clearly being manipulated.
Click to expand...


Qe will raise interest rates or will create inflation. Both can be very destructive, especially if they happen fast. If you believe we're if for a calamity then borrowed money that gets heavily watered down is an option... For example a 30 year mortgage.

The market is rigged but perhaps differently than you're saying here. Read up on HFT... There's the scam.

For your concerns I'd suggest precious metals or borrowed money.

I share your concerns to a degree. People think qe is a free lunch.
 
Arezzo said:
So who do you think's going to replace Bernanke when his term expires early next year -- Janet Yellen? Compared to Larry Summers, Janet Yellen is a monetary dove. She has consistently argued that the Fed should do as much as possible to support the weak labor market and be less concerned with inflationary risks. With evidence building that the worldwide economy is steadily and meaningfully recovering from the Great Recession (with the U.S. leading the way) do you guys think that corporate earnings are poised to accelerate as business conditions improve? Do you foresee a demonstrably favorable environment for research-driven equity-picking value investing?
Click to expand...

Yellen has already been selected, so its up to congress to approve her. She's who the market wanted.

The fed doesn't have too much power when it comes to the labor market. There are massive stockpiles of cash overseas, and a lot of political strife that is keeping hiring at bay. Also, technology. Fewer people can do more and a college degree is no more than a gumball machine diploma now... there just aren't enough jobs to feed the degrees.

Earnings will accelerate as long as as money remains cheap. But its a lot to ask of the fed, at some point business have to start taking risks.

Regarding value investing, depends on what you mean by value. Are you talking about equities that provide returns via dividends? Then yes. Money will cycle to non-cyclicals if sentiment stagnates, but you're never going to earn a return if the market loses the momentum, you're in a position to lose less than the next guy. Dow 16,000 is a high level. Its not going to stay here forever, the market needs to shed the bears to remain a sustainable move forward.
 
Do you guys think Palentir stock will nose dive when the Dems take back the White House or are they going to be a permanent megacorp running the security state?
 
Dropbear said:
Do you guys think Palentir stock will nose dive when the Dems take back the White House or are they going to be a permanent megacorp running the security state?
Click to expand...

Did regime change turf SpaceX?

Although there are alternatives to Palantir no? They do data mining and analytics with AI insights. Whatever that is. Databricks?Snowflake does stuff and wants to add AI. Microstrategy does stuff but then decided hording Bitcoin was a more viable business model.

Anyway I expended all my passive Bloomberg TV watching knowledge.
 
I mean, Trump came in pretty hot and heavy vindictive, so I expect the Dems to do the same to Musk and Thiel.

I just don’t know if the products will be too attractive to them that they won’t hurt the companies or stockholders. Dems like shiny rockets and spying on people too.
 
Dropbear said:
I mean, Trump came in pretty hot and heavy vindictive, so I expect the Dems to do the same to Musk and Thiel.

I just don’t know if the products will be too attractive to them that they won’t hurt the companies or stockholders. Dems like shiny rockets and spying on people too.
Click to expand...

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”

I wouldn't worry about companies going under because of a change political stripes in office. Out of favour - maybe.

The US government got out of the space business because hemmoraghing space programs looked bad on public budgets. So they literally outsourced it as an opaque lump sum to private firms. Because some of the entrants are crap (Boeing) or laggards, NASA ended up with a single source relationship to SpaceX. I don't see any disentangling of that. NASA has less capability than Roscosmos or China to put a man in orbit now.

I also don't see anyone in the Democratic party that has the balls to be vindictive. If such a person existed they would have give Biden stiff competition during the primaries and certainly wouldn't have stepped aside for the Harris coronation - a Kamala Harris who was not runner up in the 2019 primary, but far behind Sanders, Warren and I think even Buttigieg.

But the military industrial complex is embedded in the state now no matter the candidate. Lobbying is a profession. And tech is America's most prolific industry of the 21st century.
 
Gold and gold mining stocks. Been my superstar for the year. Just wondering if I should cash out. But where to go.

I didn't buy the dip after Liberation Day.
 
Thanks for opening for a full trading day yesterday USA. It gave me a chance to shift some money into 90-day treasury ETFs.
 
You buy the dip people. Let it go down more for me before you roll in your dry powder.
 
Russia and me are really loving the Iran thing. I was holding it for income but my oil royalty licence stock is up 35% paying out 7% dividends.
 
My hedges in defensive assets are doing very well.
 
My mother’s portfolio, which I designed, is doing okay so far.

But some of the dumping on fixed income in the hopes of a rate hike is killing some of my own portfolio.
 
Fwiffo Fwiffo I'm currently looking to buy some more (ideally re-) insurance and since you are in the industry: What is the best (re)insurer? Not necessarily the best investment but what is the best company?
 
güero said:
Fwiffo Fwiffo I'm currently looking to buy some more (ideally re-) insurance and since you are in the industry: What is the best (re)insurer? Not necessarily the best investment but what is the best company?
Click to expand...

Buy as in buy stock?

I don’t know how you define best but best in capacity and global coverage is Münchener Rück.

But as a stock listed in Germany I don’t know if it performs very well.

Second in capacity and global coverage would be Swiss Re. Berkshire Hathaway’s GenRe would be third.

When I left Munich Re they were a 40B EUR top line company. Now they just crossed 60B EUR.

In general I think insurance companies tend not to pay high dividends (they don’t necessarily need to pay a premium for your money) and can be volatile because of catastrophes and geopolitics. They also don’t rocket upwards like JP Morgan or something.

I am biased but I would say the best insurance would be my old employer. Allianz. We have the most lines of businesses, products and the most reach. When I joined it was a 130B EUR top line company. Last year it broke 180B EUR. Insurance companies make money off taking premiums and then investing it to generate returns and Allianz not only has Allianz Global Investors but it also owns PIMCO. But again only listed in Germany.

However if you look by top line revenue or size there will be a Chinese life company that only serves China and some US health insurance company that primarily serves the States that are in the same ballpark.
 
Thanks a lot Fwiffo Fwiffo Yes I meant buying stocks! Currently Allianz/MunichRe/SwissRe all pay close to 5% dividend, which is nice. I don't really need capital appreciation, that is a nice extra, just looking for stable cash-flow. The attractive thing about insurance companies (in general, as I understand) is the float, which is basically free money for them to invest. The industry as a whole is a disaster though, it seems. (100% of my industry knowledge is from Warren Buffet, so who knows if that is true)
Awesome, I already have some Allianz and was thinking about adding MunichRe or SwissRe (because it is working in CHF). I was exactly looking for your biased view, since you know the industry! The company for which everyone in the industry wants to work is the one I like to look at first for investments. Do you think most people would agree with your answer, Allianz? That is the one where all the aspiring insurance guys want to work?
 
güero said:
Thanks a lot Fwiffo Fwiffo Yes I meant buying stocks! Currently Allianz/MunichRe/SwissRe all pay close to 5% dividend, which is nice.
Click to expand...

I have an ex staff in the Balkans who constantly bemoans the ECB rates. I did direct him to UK gilts that were past 5% last year but he had no confidence Great Britain would be able to pay off their debtors in XX years at that rate.

güero said:
The attractive thing about insurance companies (in general, as I understand) is the float, which is basically free money for them to invest.
Click to expand...
I think I said this before on the forum. All insurance companies make money from investments. The operating entities/companies give their money to the asset management arm who then generates a return on equity. If the combined loss ratio is less than 100% where 100% is 1 dollar or euro of premium collected to pay off 1 dollar or euro of claim, and you eke out a small profit, you use that to expense a company party or better toilet paper for the office.

If the asset management arm underperforms, it affects the CxO, president, head of the line of business who gave them the money so they then moan and cajole the asset management head.

güero said:
The industry as a whole is a disaster though, it seems. (100% of my industry knowledge is from Warren Buffet, so who knows if that is true)
Click to expand...

That's why it can be volatile. Geopolitical events and natural catastrophes would drive the share price up or down (regardless of the steadiness of your dividend). But if you're holding and not caring much about the share price then I don't see a world without insurance in spite of repeated rumours the past XX years that Google figured it out, or Uber, or Amazon, or alternative capital firms in the Caribbean or Malta or whichever upstart or fintech or insuretech.

güero said:
The company for which everyone in the industry wants to work is the one I like to look at first for investments. Do you think most people would agree with your answer, Allianz? That is the one where all the aspiring insurance guys want to work?
Click to expand...

I'm going to sound sarcastic and say I don't think anyone ever graduates uni and thinks to work in insurance. Much less a specific insurance company.

I would say Allianz has a very specific culture. You have to be in it to understand it. I guess it's sort of like how people say Goldman Sachs has a distinct culture (no first hand knowledge by me). Everything revolves around a business case. You hire an employee, you buy a new software, you open a new branch, you throw a party for the industry - everyone expects you to show a business case. The drive for financial results and the mechanisms they create to monitor and check on you is almost overbearing. Even if you're in a back office department you're expected to cross charge other entities (your internal customers), increase the markup/overhead for your services, save on costs so your P&L looks better. You're constantly shaking down vendors for cost savings or doing P&L tricks to hide cash burn. Your internal 'customers' are just as difficult to deal with. Some basically refuse to pay you so you spend loads of time and effort trying to collect bad debt, accruing things and doing financial reconciliation...within the company.

Most people in Allianz move around - every year. You'll meet someone in January and they say they're transitioning into the role and still doing some cross-training with his/her successor in the old role. They start a new transformation/new program. By October they will tell you they are moving to another role. It could be in another operating entity. It could be a lateral role. I once saw a woman move to be executive assistant to a board member or operating entity chief and then later to a (slightly) higher role. Everyone is constantly stepping over each other, especially in Europe, hoping they land something or relationships that will take them further. If you actually sit around in the same senior role for 5 years something's wrong with you.

A lot of the company is from ex big 4 consultants. In my area - literally dominated by Accenture. This then drives the need to do transformation every year. By year 2 it's stale and the next C suite/head guy or woman pulls the plug and you plan & execute for the reorganisation.

The company's least known in North America. But anyone working here in the insurance industry knows the name. In other countries where there's a general holding Allianz company it's hard to escape. They're also the only insurance company operating in mainland China that doesn't require a local JV/partnership with a Chinese company.

Anyway it made me into a different person but if I were ever to open my own company it wouldn't be culture I would aim to create.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top Bottom