Russia and Syria

Good for us I don't agree, and that's not a good thing for him. You're a smart guy, so its a compliment: guys like us see thru it, but he's pandering to a different crowd, same but different crowd as Bush. The crowd that watches 'Friends' and laughs, believe in the "American Dream" or thinks NASCAR is the shit. The crowd that thinks by bombing some worthless country we're the good guys.
 
OfficePants said:
Good for us I don't agree, and that's not a good thing for him. You're a smart guy, so its a compliment: guys like us see thru it, but he's pandering to a different crowd, same but different crowd as Bush. The crowd that watches 'Friends' and laughs, believe in the "American Dream" or thinks NASCAR is the shit. The crowd that thinks by bombing some worthless country we're the good guys.
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Well thank you sir.

I often ponder that maybe it's time to implement avoting eligibility test of some sort. I am scared for American's future.
 
At our economic stage, saving face should be the last thing these politicians worry about.

From what I have seen, the support we have coming from the Arab countries are empty moral support. Completely pointless.
 
According to Mr. Kerry, said weapons will be removed by the middle of 2014.

Honestly I have no vested interest in what is effectively another post colonial issue but how did immediate punitive strikes turn into a nine month disarmament? What an absolute shambles.
 
Am I the only one that found Obama's latest speech arrogant? I mean, the way he described American exceptionalism was shocking.
 
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The best part is that, just like in Iraq, the rebels are Al Quida. And the strongman in charge was keeping them in check. I wonder if this will turn out differently?
 
The rebels are absolutely not AQ. One small faction of the people fighting against the Syrian government are receiving money and training from people once affiliated with AQ, but that's not remotely the same thing. The vast majority of the Syrian resistance fighters are moderates pushing for a populist government and would fight just as hard against a hardline theocracy. Most Syrians have no love for AQ and they are not Salafists. Their wives and daughters wear bluejeans, drive, and smoke.
 
Rain Man said:
The rebels are absolutely not AQ. One small faction of the people fighting against the Syrian government are receiving money and training from people once affiliated with AQ, but that's not remotely the same thing. The vast majority of the Syrian resistance fighters are moderates pushing for a populist government and would fight just as hard against a hardline theocracy. Most Syrians have no love for AQ and they are not Salafists. Their wives and daughters wear bluejeans, drive, and smoke.
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Not in total, but it seems like pretty good amount:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/09/...re-hardline-jihadists-or-al-qaeda-operatives/

AFP – Jihadists and members of hardline Islamist groups make up almost half of forces fighting against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, according to extracts from a British defence study published in Monday’s Daily Telegraph.

The analysis by defence consultancy IHS Jane’s, due to be published in full later this week, puts the number of rebel forces at around 100,000, the Telegraph reported.

But these fighters have split into as many as 1,000 bands since violence flared two years ago, the study concluded.

Of the rebel forces, IHS Jane’s estimates that around 10,000 are jihadists fighting for groups linked to Al-Qaeda and another 30,000 to 35,000 are hardline Islamists, who differ from jihadists in that they are concentrated only on the Syrian conflict, and not on the global Islamist fight.

“The insurgency is now dominated by groups which have at least an Islamist viewpoint on the conflict,” Charles Lister, author of the analysis, told the British newspaper.

“The idea that it is mostly secular groups leading the opposition is just not borne out.

“If the West looks as though it is not interested in removing Assad, moderate Islamists are also likely to be pushed further towards extremists,” he warned.

The study is based on interviews with militants and on intelligence estimates.
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I should have specified - the parallels between the amount of AQ in Syria now and what happened in Iraq seem eerily similar.
 
I don't know where Lister got his numbers from, but I have the feeling it required a doctor with a flashlight.
 
Pauly Chase said:
Savages. Graphic pics

http://www.mrconservative.com/2013/...cludes-young-children-warning-graphic-images/
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That pic with the kids is really sad. When you are desensitized to that level at that age, there is no way back. Savages, and savages in training.

I came across some Taliban stoning video a while back, she was stoned to death for walking with a man in public.

Adam Carolla is dead spot on: its time to start judging. Forget looking at things from their perspective. They're fucked up, call a spade a spade.
 
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OfficePants said:
That pic with the kids is really sad. When you are desensitized to that level at that age, there is no way back. Savages, and savages in training.

I came across some Taliban stoning video a while back, she was stoned to death for walking with a man in public.

Adam Carolla is dead spot on: its time to start judging. Forget looking at things from their perspective. They're fucked up, call a spade a spade.
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Reminds me of old Loveline episodes when he would always say it's a beautiful culture, we cannot judge.
 
DYSong Photography said:
I have read that 10 to 50 percent of the rebel forces are extremists or are considered terrorists. My guess would be the real number is somewhere in the middle of the spread. If Assad was removed from power and his army broken apart the radical groups would have more than enough strength to more or less take over the country. Given their methodology and beliefs a whole lot more people would end up dead. Again these people are masters of asymmetrical warfare.

The region and the country would be a much more dangerous place to be around. Assad is bad enough but a regime change should scare the shit out of any sane human being.
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Wasn't this basically the same deal with Sadaam?
 
Harveybirdman said:
It's a 360. We armed them in the '80s, fought them in the '90s and '00s now arming them again in the '10s.

Watch Rambo 3 if you don't believe me.
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Again, we need to stop being the fing world police.

When I lived in China, I lived in Xinjiang where there were huge populations of Uygurs and Kazaks. Though they all believed in the same religion and looked similar, the two populations hated each other and would always fist fight when they crossed paths. The entire Middle East reminds me of that. These groups haven't and will never get along, and our government just doesn't seem to understand that.
 
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^ Exactly. Let them fight it out. If they can't get along with each other, then natural selection will take over and there will be less of all sides. I'm frankly really tired of having to be PC over this shit, a bit of "you guys are fucked up, not my problem anymore" could do wonders. We've been dealing with a fucked up middle east forever -enough.
 
So it seems that our strategy is to have everyone kill each other until they get weak enough to not do much of anything:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...bba084-2af6-11e3-8ade-a1f23cda135e_print.html

CIA ramping up covert training program for moderate Syrian rebels
By Greg Miller, Published: October 2
The CIA is expanding a clandestine effort to train opposition fighters in Syria amid concern that moderate, U.S.-backed militias are rapidly losing ground in the country’s civil war, U.S. officials said.

But the CIA program is so minuscule that it is expected to produce only a few hundred trained fighters each month even after it is enlarged, a level that officials said will do little to bolster rebel forces that are being eclipsed by radical Islamists in the fight against the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The CIA’s mission, officials said, has been defined by the White House’s desire to seek a political settlement, a scenario that relies on an eventual stalemate among the warring factions rather than a clear victor. As a result, officials said, limits on the agency’s authorities enable it to provide enough support to help ensure that politically moderate, U.S.-supported militias don’t lose but not enough for them to win.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, said the agency has sent additional paramilitary teams to secret bases in Jordan in recent weeks in a push to double the number of rebel fighters getting CIA instruction and weapons before being sent back to Syria.

The agency has trained fewer than 1,000 rebel fighters this year, current and former U.S. officials said. By contrast, U.S. intelligence analysts estimate that more than 20,000 have been trained to fight for government-backed militias by Assad’s ally Iran and the Hezbollah militant network it sponsors.

The CIA effort was described as an urgent bid to bolster moderate Syrian militias, which have been unable to mount a serious challenge to Assad or match the growing strength of rival rebel factions that have hard-line Islamist agendas and, in some cases, ties to the al-Qaeda terrorist network.

The CIA is “ramping up and expanding its effort,” said a U.S. official familiar with operations in Syria, because “it was clear that the opposition was losing, and not only losing tactically but on a more strategic level.”

The CIA declined to comment.

The latest setback came last month, when 11 of the largest armed factions in Syria, including some backed by the United States, announced the formation of an alliance with a goal of creating an Islamic state. The alliance is led by Jabhat al-Nusra, a group that has sworn allegiance to the al-Qaeda leadership in Pakistan.

Operating under constraints

The descriptions of the CIA training program provide the most detailed account to date of the limited dimensions and daunting objectives of a CIA operation that President Obama secretly authorized in a covert action finding he signed this year.

U.S. officials said the classified program has been constrained by limits on CIA resources, the reluctance of rebel fighters to leave Syria for U.S. instruction and Jordan’s restrictions on the CIA’s paramilitary presence there.

But the limited scope also reflects a deeper tension in the Obama administration’s strategy on Syria, one that has sought to advance U.S. interests but avoid being drawn more deeply into a conflict that the United Nations estimates has killed more than 100,000 people since it began in 2011.

The constraints have become a source of frustration within the CIA and drawn criticism from senior lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), who as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee meets regularly with senior officials from the CIA and other agencies, said there is a “high degree of frustration in the executive branch” with the Syria strategy.

“The situation in Syria is changing faster than the administration can keep up,” Rogers said. He declined to discuss CIA operations, which are classified, but said that U.S. support for moderate opposition groups is “less than robust” and has been hobbled by “inconsistent resource allocation with stated goals.”

CIA veterans expressed skepticism that the training and weapons deliveries will have any meaningful effect. In Jordan, operatives involved in training and arming rebels lament that “we’re being asked to do something with nothing,” a former senior U.S. intelligence official said. The former official spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of agency operations overseas.

Some have also questioned the wisdom of expanding the CIA’s mission at a time when many think the agency has become too paramilitary in focus and should return to its traditional intelligence-gathering role.

‘Basic infantry training’

The agency’s training effort is centered in Jordan, where the CIA has long-standing connections to the domestic intelligence service and access to bases guarded by the Jordanian military.

The program is aimed at shoring up the fighting power of units aligned with the Supreme Military Council, an umbrella organization led by a former Syrian general that is the main recipient of U.S. support.

The training is led by small teams of operatives from the CIA’s Special Activities Division, a paramilitary branch that relies heavily on contractors and former members of U.S. Special Operations forces. Officials said the instruction is rudimentary and typically spans four to six weeks.

“It’s basic infantry training,” the former U.S. intelligence official said. “How to have some discipline hitting a target, how to reload a magazine, how to clear a room. They’re not marching. They’re learning basic infantry procedures.”

Officials said the main CIA training effort does not involve instruction on using high-
powered weapons such as rockets and antitank munitions, which are being supplied by countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, although the agency is involved in tracking those arms flows and vetting recipients.

Islamists ‘good at fighting’

The pace of the CIA program amounts to a trickle into the ranks of opposition fighters, who total about 100,000. U.S. intelligence officials said that as many as 20,000 of those are considered “extremists” with militant Islamist agendas.

Those hard-line factions have drained momentum and support from moderate rebel groups. The most prominent Islamist groups, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Jabhat al-Nusra, include fighters who have extensive experience from the war in Iraq, have ties to al-Qaeda and have carried out high-profile strikes against Assad’s government.

Former deputy CIA director Michael J. Morell said in a recent CBS interview that the most effective organizations on the battlefield in Syria are the Islamist factions. “And because they’re so good at fighting the Syrians, some of the moderate members of the opposition joined forces with them,” he said.

Those defections have been compounded by mounting skepticism of U.S. commitment and intentions, officials said. Rebels’ requests for weapons were rebuffed until earlier this year, when Obama allowed the CIA to begin providing arms. But even then, officials said, the deliveries were delayed for months and restricted to light arms, which are already abundant in the conflict.

Rebels were also angered by the U.S. decision not to launch missile strikes against Assad after he was accused of using chemical weapons to kill more than 1,000 people in August in an attack on the outskirts of Damascus. After initially threatening strikes, the Obama administration set those plans aside last month to pursue a potential deal with Russia in which Assad would surrender control of his chemical weapons stockpiles — and probably extend his hold on power.

Islamist factions have taken advantage, luring fighters away with offers of better pay, equipment and results. A spokesman for the ISIS said the group had added 2,000 Syrian recruits and 1,500 foreign fighters over the past two months.

“More and more Muslims in Syria and outside are realizing that we are the only true force able and willing to defend the Syrian people against this monstrous regime without any Western agenda,” said the spokesman, Mohammed al-Libi.

Pessimism among refugees

Recruiting efforts by militias working with the CIA have sagged, officials said.

At the largest refugee camp in Jordan, where more than 100,000 Syrians take shelter, aid officials said dozens of military-age males leave every day by bus to return to Syria, presumably to fight. But the flows have diminished, and the mood among refugees has grown more pessimistic.

“Support to the rebellion is reducing,” said an official who has worked at the Zaatari camp. “We’re seeing fewer people leaving and less [recruiting] activity.” Among those who depart, officials said they have seen no evidence that any go elsewhere in Jordan for training before returning to Syria.

The Obama administration has explored the idea of using the U.S. military to expand the training program to what some officials have described as “industrial strength.” But Defense Department officials said there has been no decision to do so and cited significant obstacles.

It is unclear whether Jordan would welcome such a large U.S. military footprint, which would mean converting a covert program into one officially acknowledged by the United States. There are also legal impediments, including a measure known as the Leahy Law that would require a determination that no recipients of U.S. military assistance had committed human rights abuses.

For the CIA, the constraints in Syria mark a significant departure from the wide latitude the agency was accustomed to over the past decade in the conflict zones of Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as in other countries patrolled by armed drones, including Pakistan and Yemen.

Mindful of the criticism and investigations that accompanied many of those operations, senior CIA officials have raised the concern that the limits imposed in Syria will do little to shield the agency from criticism if something goes wrong.

“What happens when some of the people we trained torture a prisoner?” said a former senior U.S. intelligence official familiar with agency operations in the Middle East. Even if the CIA can produce records to defend its training program, “we’re going to face congressional hearings,” the former official said. “There is no win here.”


Ernesto Londoño in Washington and Taylor Luck in Irbid and Amman, Jordan, contributed to this report.
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