Scottish Independence Vote

He's a pretty funny dude.

But if the Scots vote to leave it will be pretty idiotic.
 
Russell Street said:
I always support successionists.
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doghouse said:
They will spend decades dead flat broke and cripple their economy if they do, but whatever they feel like. It's up to them.
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I love Scotland. Both my name and my mother's maiden name begin with Mac. But secession is stupid. London subsidizes them already. And their plan seems to be to separate from England and dramatically increase government spending. It's not going to work. They're going to be flat broke.
 
John Lee Pettimore III said:
I love Scotland. Both my name and my mother's maiden name begin with Mac. But secession is stupid. London subsidizes them already. And their plan seems to be to separate from England and dramatically increase government spending. It's not going to work. They're going to be flat broke.
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I too love Scotland, it's a beautiful place with really fun people, a lot like Americans in a lot of ways, but whoever is doing the fiscal calculation for the Yes team is high.
 
What I find sorta funny is why England doesn't want them to go? If their such a drain on England, and I was a Brit, I'd want to see the back of them, much as I do a group of southern American states.

What am I missing?
 
OfficePants said:
What I find sorta funny is why England doesn't want them to go? If their such a drain on England, and I was a Brit, I'd want to see the back of them, much as I do a group of southern American states.

What am I missing?
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A lot of things. Right at the top is the Nuke fleet is up there, and it would have nowhere to go. That would open a whole can of worms in terms of agreements between the UK and the US. Then there are the transnational banking issues, and most banks say they would absolutely move south. Scotland has a lot of shipbuilding on the Clyde too, and those jobs would be toast as they mainly service Royal Navy orders. NHS, school funding, yadda yadda...

It's just a seriously bad idea.
 
doghouse said:
A lot of things. Right at the top is the Nuke fleet is up there, and it would have nowhere to go. That would open a whole can of worms in terms of agreements between the UK and the US. Then there are the transnational banking issues, and most banks say they would absolutely move south. Scotland has a lot of shipbuilding on the Clyde too, and those jobs would be toast as they mainly service Royal Navy orders. NHS, school funding, yadda yadda...

It's just a seriously bad idea.
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Nukes aside, wouldn't banking moving south benefit the crown? And wouldn't moving shipbuilding to England benefit them too?
 
OfficePants said:
Nukes aside, wouldn't banking moving south benefit the crown? And wouldn't moving shipbuilding to England benefit them too?
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I'm not sure the banking move would be much benefit to the crown. With the ownership structures there would have to be issues to be resolved which would cost money. It would obvious hurt Scotland a shit ton more though. And same with moving shipbuilding. It would cost money. It's part of the same country currently so it's not a gain to the UK to move it south, just cost.
 
OfficePants said:
Ah. That's it. Prince Charles wants to lick his lips on the Scotch and more importantly dip his cock in the oil. I get it now.

/thread
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Actually, the best stuff going forward is the gas, which is in mostly in English waters.

With a week to go before the Sept. 18 referendum and opinion polls showing the result is too close to call, the question is whether oil production, which has plummeted about 40 percent in four years, could finance a newly created state.
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Do the Scots have no other means of financing their government other than oil and gas?
 
Rambo said:
Do the Scots have no other means of financing their government other than oil and gas?
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There are reports citing Scotland as the economy of the future. But the consensus of economists cite independence will be hammered by capital being sucked out and concerns of their share of the national debt as well as questions about will the pound be the currency and the reduced ability to control inflation. Typical doomcasting for any independence scenario
 
There's not much debate about capital flight, that is gonna happen.

The difference here compared to various other independence movements around the world is that Scotland is attached to one of the most successful economies in the world. Because Scotland is part of the UK, there are companies domiciled there that would never be there for any other reason, particularly in the finance sector. Leave the UK, and they are gonna go too. If Uighur separatists were to split from China, there's no business to move because none of any note are in Xinjiang to start with. So it's really a different situation than you usually see.

The closer parallel, which also rains a little on the "Scotland is the economy of the future" parade, is Ireland, which is significantly poorer and grapples with serious income disparity dating to the 19th century. Any country and economy that small can't be but so much of a world player, and resultantly cannot control and manage it's own economy as effectively and will be impacted by more instability. The Ireland strategy of becoming a global clearing house for tax evasion basically does zilch for the economy other than having a few people employed in these shell offices for the companies (and getting to claim some global brands as Irish I guess). Even Hong Kong suffers from similar structural problem because of it's size. Scotland is fortunate to be part of a country right now that punches way above it's weight economically, and really has only downside for leaving.
 
Ian Welsh frames it in a different light, one in which I see as being the more important issue:

http://www.ianwelsh.net/scotland-england-and-hegemonic-states/

Scotland, England and Hegemonic States
2014 September 16
tags: Catalonia, Scotland, Scottish Indepence, UK, United KIngdom
by Ian Welsh
When you’re on your way up, everyone wants to join or be your friend. When you’re on your way down, well, it’s the opposite.

Scotland, with free education and a belief in social welfare that England has lost, is on the edge of voting to leave in a referendum vote. It probably doesn’t hurt that they stand to gain a lot of money from North Sea oil, but the bottom line is “why stay with England?”

The reasons offered by England are essentially “on your own, you’ll be screwed”, with an ugly undertone of “we’ll make sure of it.” There have been some efforts to offer more money and more independence within the UK framework so they can maintain social spending, but are those offers believable from Cameron, or from Millibrand, who has said that he won’t undo most of the austerity and destruction of social policies (including piecemeal NHS privatization) under the Conservate/Lib-Dem government.

Even if they are, it isn’t credible that some future PM, and by future we mean “less than a decade” will decide that Westminster needs the money more than Scotland.

We see in Spain, the Catalonians are trying to leave as well, with as many as 2 million on the streets.

This is simple enough: under an elite consensus of austerity, why stay?

The best argument for not breaking up the United Kingdom is that local elites won’t really be better: they still want to be part of the EU, they’ll still get on the austerity train, and if they don’t, the various threats by England and other elites will, in fact, materialize, and Scotland will be destroyed so it can’t afford to give benefits to its citizens. After all, if Scotland leaves, who’s next?

The West, with a few exceptions like Norway and Finland (even Sweden is slipping) just doesn’t offer that bright shiny future to its residents any more. There is no real narrative of “this is just going to keep getting better”. To be sure, you may get a smartphone, but it’s used to tie you to your job 24/7 and spy on you, and your job is shittier than the one your parents had, which was shittier than the one your grandparents had, at least if you’re young.

There’s still a bit of narrative power left in Europe, as we can see by how some Ukrainians so desperately want to join, thinking they’re going to get the deal Poland got. (You’re not, you’re going to be destroyed by the IMF and Europe, with the full collusion of your own oligarchs, who are what you need to deal with first.) But there isn’t much. The WTO can’t get new rounds through, and the new, truly terrible bilateral deals which are going through are vastly unpopular, and designed to reduce the bargaining power of workers so that even more money flows to elites.

And so the decline in legitimacy of the West will continue: the narratives are broken because the reality is broken. Not everyone has got the message yet, and there are still many countries even worse off, but the West, for over 90% of its population, is in decline.

Devolution will only work if the people who devolve don’t assume it’s a solution by itself and stay right on top of their local politicians. Otherwise those pols will turn around and betray them as well. If those pols don’t betray, assume international elites will want any new counter-examples to the inevitability of austerity crushed, and will make sincere efforts to do so.

Scots who think they can devolve and stay on the British pound are, thus, making a mistake. Likewise it is unclear to me that they should stay in the EU, after how the EU has treated the PIIGS. There is no “us” in the EU, only elites with interests: if they perceive it is in their interest for Scotland to prosper (they might, if it can be sold as a poke in England’s eye), then they will. If not, they will have no hesitation in crushing Scotland’s economy.

Best of luck to the Scot… and to the Catalonians. The West has failed, and must be reborn. Let us hope independence for smaller states is part of that rebirth.
 
That essay is a bit of a mess. Welfare states are on the decline, but if we just make them smaller, they will work. Which is, fittingly enough, a derivative of the No True Scotsman ploy.
 
I never said it was a masterwork. But, the idea that the UK gives a flying fuck about Scotland is one that doesn't fly. Also, that Cameron's promises will keep up with the next PM.
 
Rambo said:
I never said it was a masterwork. But, the idea that the UK gives a flying fuck about Scotland is one that doesn't fly. Also, that Cameron's promises will keep up with the next PM.
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The UK is Scotland. You mean England.
 
Rambo said:
I never said it was a masterwork. But, the idea that the UK gives a flying fuck about Scotland is one that doesn't fly. Also, that Cameron's promises will keep up with the next PM.
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In what way does another country (or three countries together) "give a flying fuck" about another country? What would demonstrate a sufficient level of caring?

And given Cameron's political alignment, if anything, the next PM will be even more generous with the dole than Cameron.
 
John Lee Pettimore III said:
In what way does another country (or three countries together) "give a flying fuck" about another country? What would demonstrate a sufficient level of caring?

And given Cameron's political alignment, if anything, the next PM will be even more generous with the dole than Cameron.
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the one thing that the separators always want to do is stay linked with the existing currency. This was true in Quebec. You want to be independent but you want to keep the best from the country you are splitting from and dump the worst (national debt). What sane parent country would say "sure, sounds good to me!"
 
thruth said:
Secret papers leaked suggesting a £400 million NHS funding shortfall and a plan to gut the program despite promises to protect and enhance by the Scottish government

http://m.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29213416
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Scotland is graying. 400 mil is probably an underestimate. And the Shetlanders and Orcadians have made it pretty clear that they do not want to join Scotland, which takes away 20% of the projected oil wealth.
 
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