www.ianwelsh.net
So, as the polls predicted, the Liberals win the most seats, but short of a majority. The Conservatives actually got slightly more of the popular vote at 34% to 33%, but since their support is geographically clustered, they received less seats.
The NDP lost seats, down to 24. The Bloc went from almost none to probably 32 of Quebec’s 78 ridings, making them the third largest party. This shouldn’t be taken as meaning separatism is roaring back, the Bloc downplayed separatism, but did benefit from supporting the no religious symbols law in Quebec (which includes hijabs and so on.) The Quebecois, like the French, are still big believers in secularism and not fans of multiculturalism.
The most likely result here is a Liberal/NDP coalition government, though Trudeau could try to govern as a minority. He won’t want to ally with the Bloc as they are still officially separatists and the rest of Canada wouldn’t like that.
My read of Trudeau’s personality is that he’s woke in the most performative sense: he doesn’t actually believe in anything left-wing, really, and he won’t like allying with the NDP. I read Trudeau right when he became leader, noting that there was no chance in hell of any electoral reform under him unless it was ranked ballots; and stating he was an empty shirt. His betrayal of his promises to Canada’s indigenous people and his buying a pipeline indicate I was correct.
Trudeau would be more comfortable working with the Conservatives, in my view, but that’s impossible for a variety of reasons.
So we’ll see what he does. I’d expect him to suck it up and do a coalition, then like his father, after having been forced to do some left wing things by the NDP, to use those as proof that he’s left wing and not an empty shirt, and call another election. (His father, though many things, was not empty, mind you.)
However, we’ll see. Trudeau’s primary characteristic is near narcissism. He’s always been beautiful, rich and loved. He has near divine confidence that whatever he does is right, and he’s a neoliberal at heart.
As for the longer future, nothing about this election is good. The NDP continue to slide. The Conservatives are getting stronger, and the Liberals are just neoliberals. There is no sign that Canadian politics is getting healthier, other than a minor surge by the NDP towards the end. The choice remains “bad or terrible.”.
Thruth
Canadians sent a message that the least offensive government with the best chance of delivering something transformative for all Canadians would be a Liberal minority that would have to cooperate with the other parties plus it avoided having to confront the possibility of a coalition government which is foreign to us at the federal level.
Canadians believed Trudeau when he said he would reform the electoral process but lied. They took electoral reform out of his hands and did it themselves.
The minority + loss of the popular vote demonstrates this. Canadians voting regionally has opened up rents in the landscape in the west and in Quebec.
What non-Canadians have to understand is that the Bloc is not interested in Canada’s national agenda. National to them is Quebec and Quebec voters sent more Bloc to Ottawa to preserve Quebec’s culture and secular ways. Blanchet’s speech was clear on that.
The election once again demonstrated that no one sees the NDP as anything more than an also ran that can rise up to challenge for the official opposition at best. They shit the bed in Quebec and any link to the Orange Wave of the dirt napping Jack Layton is nothing but a fart in a windstorm now.
Singh is of the wrong political persuasion and should be a Liberal. He was the most genuine in his election night speech but it did not contain any vestige of how badly they failed. His speech, like all the others were misplaced campaign speeches not speeches of contrition and acknowledgement that Canadians dislike them all. The crowd “spontaneously” broke into a “tax the rich chant” and he chuckled and said “we will”. Completely misguided as were his mandatory 6 points to gain NDP cooperation. Sorry Jagmeet, the NDP is now broke and could not mount another election campaign should the Liberal minority fail a vote of non-confidence.
Though the Conservatives won the popular vote that is more of a winning their ridings by large margins not that Canadians almost elected them. 150-plus seats is a strong minority. The Conservatives have demonstrated once again they cannot build beyond their base. Until they shit down the religious, racist, anti-abortion, anti-old, straight white guy stance they will only win when voters tire of Liberals who have been in government past their best before date. Scheer’s speech was giddy and misguided and his inflection was like a high school girl: “OMG, meet the two newest MP’s from Saskatchewan!”.
Almost forgot the Greens. Sadly, Lizzy May is the most accomplished leader out of them all. She is a Ranty Thunberg who has actually accomplished something environmentally. But of all the leaders, she is the one that needs to go because 3 seats and doubling the Green portion of the popular vote to 6% is clearly meaningless to Canadians. They need a new leader just because. And for someone new to see if they can grow the party.
in fact, Canadians voted for meaningful climate change changes because the other parties didn’t really promise anything other than promises so they do not need to vote Green for that. All parties are o
There will be no formal coalition. That is clear from the results. Trudeau will have to work with the other parties to get things done but not in a formal coalition. It will be a Liberal minority that leads Canada.
Since the Liberals can no longer be on the autopilot setting of having a majority they will have to govern smartly and this will be a test of Trudeau’s abilities as a leader. To deal with a lukewarm mandate from Canadians, to deal with the infighting from within his party that comes with a minority and to curry favour from the other parties. To this point he has not demonstrated that. His speech was the worst. The emotions of a majority victor and tone deaf regarding the west and Quebec.
The best example of effective minority government rule is what I would call a Pearsonian minority. Lester Pearson being the PM in a Liberal minority that delivered universal healthcare and the Canada Pension Plan. Back to back Liberal minority governments too. Plus a Nobel prize for the Suez crisis. Not a soecail
That is the level of transformative change that Trudeau’s minority must deliver. Something on the magnitude of universal Pharmacare not $1000 in every family’s pocket from punk ass tax cuts.
First Nations are demanding billions more for social programs and payouts from past misdeeds. This will never end. The west wants pipelines. Quebec does not.
Delivering substantive change for all Canadians will mitigate the regional discord somewhat which is why what the Liberal minority delivers must be big.
The point has been made that all the leaders should face leadership reviews and should be replaced. The other side of the coin is that with Scheer and Singh it is their first campaigns and they should be given some grace. Most likely they will not be replaced but I am not ruling out the reviews and possibly one or both getting turfed. Time will tell.
Everyone expected this outcome. Internal Liberal polling was expecting 150ish seats.
This result is the first in a long, long time that comes with a carrot and stick mandate from Canadians. There was not this level of regional dissent for Harper’s minorities.
Trudeau needs to deliver and his faggoty, pretend social activism won’t cut it. He needs to do something now for Canada and it may not get him elected whenever this minority government fails in a few years. Not many leaders get three mandates in a row.
Canadians have created the perfect storm for change, we will see if Trudeau and the others grow some balls to deliver something meaningful. This time is different because Canadians have lost their patience for bullshit.
