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A few people are surprised when I say the subjugation of Venezuela isn't about oil, and I get why that can be confusing considering the US' past history (Iraq) and Trump's constant comments about getting Venezuela's oil.
But here is why I don't think it's the primary motive.
Firstly, the US has been a net exporter of oil since 2020. It doesn't desperately need oil supply to sustain its economy, even if it has a few refineries in Texas that are being under utilised.
Venezuela, meanwhile, is currently only producing around 1.1 million barrels a day, a fraction of what the US produces itself. To put that in perspective, Canada alone currently sells the US more than 4 million barrels a day.
Yes, Venezuela has massive reserves of oil, but it's not as simple as tapping into a reservoir. Most experts agree it would cost as much as $100 billion and at least a decade just to get it back to the production levels from the late 1990s, which peaked at around 3.7 million barrels a day.
So... will American oil companies be jumping picking up that debt? Probably not... it's not really worth it.
Putting aside the inescapable instability of the country, and the fact the country remains under the rule of the same corrupt regime that seized their assets last time they were in the country, the financial case just doesn't stack up.
Oil prices have dropped 23% in the past year and 2026 is predicted to see the biggest global surplus of oil in history. In most instances, the oil price is already too low to break even for existing operations. So even if the oil companies were able to finance the massive infrastructure developments needed to get the industry pumping out oil into the market, this would only decrease the price of oil even further. It's not in there interests, which is why Trump is now talking about subsidising the oil companies, which really isn't going to fly domestically.
Yes, the USA could cut off supply to China. But Venezuela currently supplies only about 4% of China's seaborne oil imports. It can easily recoup this from other suppliers with very little inconvenience. They wouldn't be happy, but it's not the strategic master stroke some people are suggesting.
Even if a war were to break out over Taiwan and the US wanted to cut off its supply from Venezuela at the same time as cutting off supply from the Middle East, its control of the Panama Canal would be sufficient, or it could simply park a carrier fleet off its coast as it has done for the past month. Substantially easier than what it's doing now.
As I first stated in October last year when I first covered this: "What I suspect this is about is the establishment, or perhaps re-establishment, of an enforced sphere of influence throughout the Amercias."
Everything I have seen and heard since then has confirmed my suspicions. This is about regional dominance and removing Chinese and Russian influence from the Americas.
So, why does Trump keep talking about Venezuela's oil? Because he's entirely transactional. In his mind, it's what you do when you're powerful, you take what you want. He thinks his base will see it as "winning", and there's also a very good chance he thinks it's that simple to take.
Essentially, he's a a bully. In his world, if you're going to beat up a kid in the school yard to intimidate everyone else, why wouldn't you take their lunch money?
In my eyes, this doesn't actually change the immorality of what is being done. Trump isn't demanding democracy be established in Venezuela, he's demanding their compliance. The new President is just as illegitimate as Maduro was, she attained her position through the same electoral fraud... but so far she's doing what she's told. That's all Trump wants.