Coronavirus

Kingstonian said:
I don’t like the sound of that. I have a second jab tomorrow. I delayed getting the first and declined the offer to bring forward my second jab. Buyers remorse kicking in, but it is easy to just go along with the programme even if you are sceptical.

Did you seek medical advice when the symptoms emerged?
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No. I can buy panadol very easily.
 
Sammy Ambrose said:
I self medicated on Azithromycin ,decongestants and antihistamines and bromhexine hcl. Felt better almost immediately but a week later I wanted to die.
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Die as you felt ill again, or just exhausted?

A couple of times in my late teens and early twenties when I had virus like flu, I had similar repeat symptoms like 10 days later. Enough for me to notice it was a trend.

I've also had the flu when I've been noticeably tired enough for up to two weeks afterwards to go to bed really early like 9am and sleep deeply until morning. Is that post-virus-syndrome, or just natural recovery?

I'm an tough old gut now, the last time I had flu was Christmas 2011 and dead on time, Easter 2012. Since then, just that cold with the change of season from winter to spring and autumn to winter. Never had it last year.
 
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Pimpernel Smith said:
Die as you felt ill again, or just exhausted?

A couple of times in my late teens and early twenties when I had virus like flu, I had similar repeat symptoms like 10 days later. Enough for me to notice it was a trend.

I've also had the flu when I've been noticeably tired enough for up to two weeks afterwards to go to bed really early like 9am and sleep deeply until morning. Is that post-virus-syndrome, or just natural recovery?

I'm an tough old gut now, the last time I had flu was Christmas 2011 and dead on time, Easter 2012. Since then, just that cold with the change of season from winter to spring and autumn to winter. Never had it last year.
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I don't know. I just know I had never experienced anything like that. But I continued to work so maybe it was all in the mind. Couldn't exercise and still can't.
 
Sammy Ambrose said:
I don't know. I just know I had never experienced anything like that. But I continued to work so maybe it was all in the mind. Couldn't exercise and still can't.
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If you continue to work, as one of my old teachers use to say, it's definitely not flu. It's only a heavy cold.

But it felt different to flu?

I'm intrigued on many levels. I still don't know anyone close enough to me who I could have that conversation with. A few distant work colleagues who all recovered double quick. Everyone remotely close, nothing with the exception of...

My father, and he's in a lunatic asylum, I have zero dealings with him for the last 20 years, and he tested positive but with no symptoms. They tested him when they gave him his first jab.

Anyway, my work colleagues were dead against coming back to work 50% of the time as of next week. So I've left it until we're all fully vaccinated. Gives me an excuse to go biking in the middle of the day for my daily 2 hours. I'll keep that going for the next 3 weeks.
 
Tbh if not for the inconvenience, I wouldn't have had the jab. I am in very good metabolic health. Have never been admitted to the hospital. Haven't had the flu or any illness really in over 30 years

I am not scared of Covid. I am not an anti-vaxxer, I have had the jab. Ditto my family. I had the Pfizer and for three days after I experienced fatigue I haven't experienced in a long while and I couldn't work out
But for me, electing to have the jab was essentially to fulfil all righteousness and because of the inconvenience of travel and modern living.

For others, it might be different.
 
QuandoDio said:
Tbh if not for the inconvenience, I wouldn't have had the jab. I am in very good metabolic health. Have never been admitted to the hospital. Haven't had the flu or any illness really in over 30 years

I am not scared of Covid. I am not an anti-vaxxer, I have had the jab. Ditto my family. I had the Pfizer and for three days after I experienced fatigue I haven't experienced in a long while and I couldn't work out
But for me, electing to have the jab was essentially to fulfil all righteousness and because of the inconvenience of travel and modern living.

For others, it might be different.
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I think many have gone this route including myself.
 
QuandoDio said:
Tbh if not for the inconvenience, I wouldn't have had
But for me, electing to have the jab was essentially to fulfil all righteousness and because of the inconvenience of travel and modern living.

For others, it might be different.
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As someone who skipped the bird flu vaccine and annual flu vaccines, I'd rather get natural immunity but the thought of being treated like a second class citizen and claustrophobic quarantine were the primary motivators. I haven't had a family doctor since he was a pediatrician.
 
ACIP just told us to prepare to vaccinate 24 months and up, starting September this year.
 
Fwiffo said:
As someone who skipped the bird flu vaccine and annual flu vaccines, I'd rather get natural immunity but the thought of being treated like a second class citizen and claustrophobic quarantine were the primary motivators. I haven't had a family doctor since he was a pediatrician.
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Now you have been vaccinated, try to come close to a weak positive so your immunity doesn't wane.
 
There is a world of difference between taking, say, an mRNA vaccine or protein spike vaccine and exposure to the live virus in the midst of a pandemic. We are in a race against time and a host of new variants right now. We don’t need a bunch of idiots trying to inoculate themselves.
 
Dropbear said:
There is a world of difference between taking, say, an mRNA vaccine or protein spike vaccine and exposure to the live virus in the midst of a pandemic. We are in a race against time and a host of new variants right now. We don’t need a bunch of idiots trying to inoculate themselves.
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He is going to be vaccinated.

I am talking about maintaining immunity.

That matters. Ideally with a booster, but normally it's maintained by natural exposure after immunisation or infection.
 
Sammy Ambrose said:
' No ' What?

Don"t take natural exposure and immunity lightly. In the UK right now quacks are being drowned with babies with terrible colds because of previous lack of exposure.
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That's also what is going to happen next fall/winter, regular flu is going to hit hard and it will of course be blamed on corona. BUT since it's going to be masks and lockdown forever, maybe it is not going to happen and no one will ever get the flu again. What a great advancement for humanity.
 
güero said:
That's also what is going to happen next fall/winter, regular flu is going to hit hard and it will of course be blamed on corona. BUT since it's going to be masks and lockdown forever, maybe it is not going to happen and no one will ever get the flu again. What a great advancement for humanity.
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It's speculation that this flu season will be bad, there's also a position that the immune boost from the vaccine will assist against similar virus i.e. seasonal flu. Moot point, as in the UK because of lockdowns, social distancing and mask wearing they totally erased flu deaths and flu cases in 2020. Oddly, the same strategy didn't work against Covid. Weird.

The UK is set-up to go into endless lockdowns and masks forever, all to save the NHS.

The current scandal brewing and the fact that for fucking once, the NHS will need to be there to save the people and not the other way around, may well break the spell.
 
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www.medrxiv.org

The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 reprograms both adaptive and innate immune responses

The mRNA-based BNT162b2 vaccine from Pfizer/BioNTech was the first registered COVID-19 vaccine and has been shown to be up to 95% effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections. Little is known about the broad effects of the new class of mRNA vaccines, especially whether they have combined...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org

Interestingly, however, the BNT162b2 vaccine also modulated the production of inflammatory cytokines by innate immune cells upon stimulation with both specific (SARS-CoV-2) and non-specific (viral, fungal and bacterial)stimuli. The response of innate immune cells to TLR4 and TLR7/8 ligands was lower after BNT162b2 48 vaccination, while fungi-induced cytokine responses were stronger.
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Ok and this is perfectly fine because...
 
Fwiffo said:
Until...?
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Forever. This is absolutely necessary, because the new super-COVID feels, get ready, „like a bad cold“. So I’m sure you understand why it is vital everyone continues to stay at home. You wouldn’t want to spread or god forbid even catch yourself a bad cold, do you?

www.cnbc.com

The fast-spreading delta Covid variant could have different symptoms, experts say

The Covid delta variant that was originally discovered in India is now spreading around the world.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
güero said:
Forever. This is absolutely necessary, because the new super-COVID feels, get ready, „like a bad cold“. So I’m sure you understand why it is vital everyone continues to stay at home. You wouldn’t want to spread or god forbid even catch yourself a bad cold, do you?

www.cnbc.com

The fast-spreading delta Covid variant could have different symptoms, experts say

The Covid delta variant that was originally discovered in India is now spreading around the world.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
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always love hearing from our resident virologist on virus mutations. really good work on this.
 
Rambo said:
always love hearing from our resident virologist on virus mutations. really good work on this.
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Thank you sir, appreciate it. Don't want to take credit for this though, it's the work of my distinguished assistant Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London.
 
Liberated from mask wearing today and able to eat inside restaurants. Very, very few wearing masks. One was Queen Maxima was trying to be incognito outside Zara Home. Well spotted. I did the decent thing and just pretended she was just another shopper, whilst everyone else gawped at her, the daughter and the grandmother with the security 10 yards in front and behind.

Felt normal again.
 
www.bbc.com

Covid-19: Crowds flee Dhaka ahead of strict Bangladesh lockdown

Cases of Covid-19 in Bangladesh have surged since May, largely because of the Delta variant.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

"For seven days from Thursday, no one in Bangladesh will be allowed to leave their homes unless in an emergency.

As a result, people are fleeing the busy capital city for their homes in towns and villages."

A mad rush just for 7 days. Imagine if it's 90.
 
Fwiffo said:
www.bbc.com

Covid-19: Crowds flee Dhaka ahead of strict Bangladesh lockdown

Cases of Covid-19 in Bangladesh have surged since May, largely because of the Delta variant.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

"For seven days from Thursday, no one in Bangladesh will be allowed to leave their homes unless in an emergency.

As a result, people are fleeing the busy capital city for their homes in towns and villages."

A mad rush just for 7 days. Imagine if it's 90.
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Lockdowns in countries where there are no welfare safety nets, government sponsored furloughs and the likes, where many exist hand-to-mouth are utterly incomprehensible and unforgiveable.

Typical BBC lying by omission there all over that place.
 
Delta Variant Outbreak in Israel Infects Vaccinated Adults

By Dov Lieber June 25, 2021 9:15 am ET https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccin...9-delta-cases-in-israeli-outbreak-11624624326

TEL AVIV—About half of adults infected in an outbreak of the Delta variant of Covid-19 in Israel were fully inoculated with the Pfizer Inc. Vaccine, prompting the government to reimpose an indoor mask requirement and other measures to contain the highly transmissible strain.

Preliminary findings by Israeli health officials suggest about 90% of the new infections were caused by the Delta variant, according to Ran Balicer, who leads an expert advisory panel on Covid-19 for the government.

Around half of the adults who were infected were fully vaccinated, he said.

Israel is now reassessing its Covid-19 regulations after moving to open up its society and economy after multiple lockdowns last year.

“The entrance of the delta variant has changed the transition dynamics,” said Prof. Balicer, who is also the chief innovation officer for Israel’s largest health-management organization, Clalit.

The Delta variant, which first emerged in India in late 2020 and is also known as B.1.617.2, has now been detected in more than 70 countries. In the U.S., public-health experts expect it to soon become the dominant strain.

Israeli health officials are optimistic that even if the variant does spread, evidence from countries such as the U.K. show the vaccine will prevent a large increase in severe illness and hospitalizations that plagued the country’s health system in previous outbreaks.

The number of cases in Israel is relatively low by global standards. New cases of Covid-19 rose to over 200 on Thursday from around 10 a day for most of June.

The government had canceled the indoor mask requirement 10 days ago and dropped most other preventive measures after running one of the world’s fastest vaccination campaigns. More than 85% of Israeli adults have been inoculated with two doses of the vaccine that was developed by Pfizer and German partner BioNTech SE.

Israel was an early test case for the effectiveness of the vaccine after outbreaks last year at one point gave it one of the world’s highest per-capita infection rates. Since the start of the pandemic, 840,522 of the country’s 9.3 millions citizens have been infected, of which 6,429 died.

The latest spike in infections was first identified among schoolchildren in a town in central Israel earlier this week, but has quickly spread geographically and to other groups of the population. The government earlier this week recommended that all 12- to 15-year-olds be vaccinated to protect against the Delta variant.

Israeli health officials said the highly contagious strain had likely entered the country through its main international airport near Tel Aviv, where a system meant to vet every new arrival through testing was overloaded in recent days amid a surge in foreign travel.

On Wednesday, the government delayed allowing foreign nationals to enter into the country for tourism from July 1 to Aug. 1 and reimposed a mask requirement inside airports.

“Our goal at the moment, first and foremost, is to safeguard the citizens of Israel from the Delta variant that is running amok in the world,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Wednesday.
 
This is likely an example of base rate bias in epidemiology (it’s called base rate fallacy in other fields). Professor Levy said that “half of infected people were vaccinated”. This language is important because it’s very different than “half of vaccinated people were infected”. And this misunderstanding happens all. the. time.

The more vaccinated a population, the more we’ll hear of the vaccinated getting infected. For example, say there’s a community that’s 100% vaccinated. If there’s transmission, we know breakthrough cases will happen. So, by definition, 100% of outbreak cases will be among the vaccinated. It will just be 100% out of a smaller number.

​
Cue Israel. They are one of the global leadersin vaccinations; 85% of Israeli adults are vaccinated. So, say we have the following scenario:

  • 100 adult community
  • 4 COVID19 cases
  • 50% of cases were among the vaccinated
It would look something like this:

​
With an infection rate among the vaccinated of 2% and infection rate of 13% among the unvaccinated, this would give us an efficacy rate of 85%. This is pretty darn close to the clinical trial efficacy rate, meaning the Pfizer vaccine is still working against Delta.

Unfortunately, this gets more complicated. We know the original Israeli outbreaks were in two schools. Because the vast majority of kids in Israel are not vaccinated (only 2-4% because they were just approved), imbalance is introduced. But, I ran the numbers and as long as at least 90% of the adults in the original outbreak were vaccinated, we know the vaccine is still working against Delta. 91% isn’t a farfetched number as teachers (at least in the US) are vaccinated at a much higher rate than the general public.

We need other fundamental details before we start to worry too. Like…

  1. What did these outbreaks look like? How many people were at risk? How many people infected? What proportion of the infected were adults vs. kids?
  2. How were the cases caught? Was there surveillance testing at the schools? In other words, were these asymptomatic cases? If not, what was the severity of the cases? What was the severity of the vaccinated cases?
  3. Were vaccinated cases fully or partially vaccinated? We know 1 dose of vaccines doesn’t work well against Delta.
Bottom Line: I have more questions than answers. And we will (hopefully) get answers to these questions soon. But, there’s a strong possibility that this is a textbook example of base rate bias. Which means I’m optimistic that this is just further evidence the vaccine works against Delta on an individual level. However, this does NOT mean that we shouldn’t worry about Delta on a population-level.

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

Israel, 50% of infected are vaccinated, and base rate bias

Delta has arrived in Israel, and with its arrival, cases are increasing (albeit relatively small). And, this is expected. We’ve seen it in the UK. and India. and Indonesia. And South Africa. And Russia. No country is 100% vaccinated. And this coupled with Delta being
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
 
fxh said:
Delta Variant Outbreak in Israel Infects Vaccinated Adults

By Dov Lieber June 25, 2021 9:15 am ET https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccin...9-delta-cases-in-israeli-outbreak-11624624326

TEL AVIV—About half of adults infected in an outbreak of the Delta variant of Covid-19 in Israel were fully inoculated with the Pfizer Inc. Vaccine, prompting the government to reimpose an indoor mask requirement and other measures to contain the highly transmissible strain.

Preliminary findings by Israeli health officials suggest about 90% of the new infections were caused by the Delta variant, according to Ran Balicer, who leads an expert advisory panel on Covid-19 for the government.

Around half of the adults who were infected were fully vaccinated, he said.

Israel is now reassessing its Covid-19 regulations after moving to open up its society and economy after multiple lockdowns last year.

“The entrance of the delta variant has changed the transition dynamics,” said Prof. Balicer, who is also the chief innovation officer for Israel’s largest health-management organization, Clalit.

The Delta variant, which first emerged in India in late 2020 and is also known as B.1.617.2, has now been detected in more than 70 countries. In the U.S., public-health experts expect it to soon become the dominant strain.

Israeli health officials are optimistic that even if the variant does spread, evidence from countries such as the U.K. show the vaccine will prevent a large increase in severe illness and hospitalizations that plagued the country’s health system in previous outbreaks.

The number of cases in Israel is relatively low by global standards. New cases of Covid-19 rose to over 200 on Thursday from around 10 a day for most of June.

The government had canceled the indoor mask requirement 10 days ago and dropped most other preventive measures after running one of the world’s fastest vaccination campaigns. More than 85% of Israeli adults have been inoculated with two doses of the vaccine that was developed by Pfizer and German partner BioNTech SE.

Israel was an early test case for the effectiveness of the vaccine after outbreaks last year at one point gave it one of the world’s highest per-capita infection rates. Since the start of the pandemic, 840,522 of the country’s 9.3 millions citizens have been infected, of which 6,429 died.

The latest spike in infections was first identified among schoolchildren in a town in central Israel earlier this week, but has quickly spread geographically and to other groups of the population. The government earlier this week recommended that all 12- to 15-year-olds be vaccinated to protect against the Delta variant.

Israeli health officials said the highly contagious strain had likely entered the country through its main international airport near Tel Aviv, where a system meant to vet every new arrival through testing was overloaded in recent days amid a surge in foreign travel.

On Wednesday, the government delayed allowing foreign nationals to enter into the country for tourism from July 1 to Aug. 1 and reimposed a mask requirement inside airports.

“Our goal at the moment, first and foremost, is to safeguard the citizens of Israel from the Delta variant that is running amok in the world,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Wednesday.
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That's all very well, but how many are actually ill with it, or hospitalized?

And those that are ill, what percentage have mild symptoms?

Dropbear said:
This is likely an example of base rate bias in epidemiology (it’s called base rate fallacy in other fields). Professor Levy said that “half of infected people were vaccinated”. This language is important because it’s very different than “half of vaccinated people were infected”. And this misunderstanding happens all. the. time.

The more vaccinated a population, the more we’ll hear of the vaccinated getting infected. For example, say there’s a community that’s 100% vaccinated. If there’s transmission, we know breakthrough cases will happen. So, by definition, 100% of outbreak cases will be among the vaccinated. It will just be 100% out of a smaller number.

​
Cue Israel. They are one of the global leadersin vaccinations; 85% of Israeli adults are vaccinated. So, say we have the following scenario:

  • 100 adult community
  • 4 COVID19 cases
  • 50% of cases were among the vaccinated
It would look something like this:

​
With an infection rate among the vaccinated of 2% and infection rate of 13% among the unvaccinated, this would give us an efficacy rate of 85%. This is pretty darn close to the clinical trial efficacy rate, meaning the Pfizer vaccine is still working against Delta.

Unfortunately, this gets more complicated. We know the original Israeli outbreaks were in two schools. Because the vast majority of kids in Israel are not vaccinated (only 2-4% because they were just approved), imbalance is introduced. But, I ran the numbers and as long as at least 90% of the adults in the original outbreak were vaccinated, we know the vaccine is still working against Delta. 91% isn’t a farfetched number as teachers (at least in the US) are vaccinated at a much higher rate than the general public.

We need other fundamental details before we start to worry too. Like…

  1. What did these outbreaks look like? How many people were at risk? How many people infected? What proportion of the infected were adults vs. kids?
  2. How were the cases caught? Was there surveillance testing at the schools? In other words, were these asymptomatic cases? If not, what was the severity of the cases? What was the severity of the vaccinated cases?
  3. Were vaccinated cases fully or partially vaccinated? We know 1 dose of vaccines doesn’t work well against Delta.
Bottom Line: I have more questions than answers. And we will (hopefully) get answers to these questions soon. But, there’s a strong possibility that this is a textbook example of base rate bias. Which means I’m optimistic that this is just further evidence the vaccine works against Delta on an individual level. However, this does NOT mean that we shouldn’t worry about Delta on a population-level.

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

Israel, 50% of infected are vaccinated, and base rate bias

Delta has arrived in Israel, and with its arrival, cases are increasing (albeit relatively small). And, this is expected. We’ve seen it in the UK. and India. and Indonesia. And South Africa. And Russia. No country is 100% vaccinated. And this coupled with Delta being
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
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The Delta variant is no cause for alarm based on the 3% mutation which is adequately covered by the vaccines.

A German colleague of mine with diabetes is absolutely shitting himself over Delta. He's close to retirement and still only had the first jab and is only getting his second one the same time as me i.e. the middle of next month. The German roll out is not so good, the Dutch are well ahead after a the slow EU start.

Lots of my colleagues and some business associates too have got the full-on fear. The return to normal is way to quick for them.

I'm ready to be delivered back to normality. Can't stand masks big barrier to communication and facial expression. Time to kill this beast.
 
Pimpernel Smith said:
'''So it's not having the same impact in terms of causing severe death and disease as it was during the last epidemic."

Ipso facto: don't panic and shut down social and economic life.
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you're reading that statement the wrong way. its not because the virus isn't as deadly. its because people are vaccinated and that is cutting down on those two things.
 
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