The Next Election, Political News, and Other Forms of Comedy (US, UK, & Intl)

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I note that a good many political commentator/pundits are claiming that the story of RFK Jr. and the dead bear cub has killed Jr.'s presidential prospects...which were pretty remote to begin with, to say the least. Frankly, it raised him considerably in my estimation. I mean, what do you do with a road-killed bear cub. Had I seen a dead bear cub in the road, I should have said to myself, "Aaaw, the poor little guy," and driven on, feeling twinges of melancholy as the pathetic little black shape diminished in my rear-view mirror. Kennedy, on the other hand, saw it as an opportunity for a clever prank, that caused consternation in the great city of New York. At least he has imagination and a sense of humor. I just read an article in the New Yorker about RFK Jr.. It was certainly unflattering. Nonetheless, I will always have a soft spot for anyone who practices the noble art of falconry.
 
Jan Libourel said:
I mean, what do you do with a road-killed bear cub.
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Decide you’re going to take it home and eat it. Then, keep it in your car for 6 hours while you go get drunk with your friends. Then, once it begins to smell, take it out of your trunk and then dump it in the park like an absolute psycho?
 
Photos of JD Vance in drag have just leaked. Not sure if anyone cares about such things anymore- even the MAGAs. The only thing remarkable is that he wasn’t wearing anymore eyeliner than he regularly does.
 
I watched all the big speeches at the DNC this year (one of my kids did a homework project on it). The outstanding performance was Walz - he really stole the show. He could seriously win independent votes for them - except no one but fanatics watched this shit and no one really cares about VPs.

Harris put in a solid performance, nothing special or new. Actually a rather anticlimactic end to the show. Biden was in good form, if he could deliver like that 24/7 then he’d still be the candidate. His daughter did a decent job as well. The Obamas were charm with our substance again.

I missed Kinzinger, though heard that was good.
 
According to Fox polling of registered voters in battleground states, Trump is carrying:

65% of Whites without a college degree

60% of rural voters

42% of Hispanics

+11% over Harris re: men


77% among White evangelical Christians (-6% )

19% among Black voters (+12%)

Harris (all above Biden’s popularity):

79% among Black voters

56% among Hispanics

55% among under 30

51% among voters 65+

+11% among women

Neck and neck at the state level with the results within the parameters of random change.

Fox News Poll: Harris closes gap with Trump in Sun Belt states

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-closes-gap-trump-sun-belt-states
 
Thruth said:
According to Fox polling of registered voters in battleground states, Trump is carrying:

65% of Whites without a college degree

60% of rural voters

42% of Hispanics

+11% over Harris re: men


77% among White evangelical Christians (-6% )

19% among Black voters (+12%)

Harris (all above Biden’s popularity):

79% among Black voters

56% among Hispanics

55% among under 30

51% among voters 65+

+11% among women

Neck and neck at the state level with the results within the parameters of random change.

Fox News Poll: Harris closes gap with Trump in Sun Belt states

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-closes-gap-trump-sun-belt-states
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But the most hilarious part was when they came up with this headline:

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Not a mental image any of us need!
 
www.theglobeandmail.com

Far-right wins Austria election, boosting European right-wing surge

Herbert Kickl’s Freedom Party won 28.8 per cent of the vote, but if he cannot persuade another party to ally with him, it could end the FPO’s hopes of forming a government
www.theglobeandmail.com www.theglobeandmail.com

“'Kickl has often said that (Hungarian Prime Minister) Viktor Orban is a role model for him and he will stand by him.'

Kickl, who this year forged an alliance with Orban, opposes providing aid to Ukraine and wants sanctions against Russia withdrawn, arguing they hurt Austria more than Moscow."

Wohlstand!
 
Fwiffo said:
www.bbc.com

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are deadlocked - could an October surprise change the game?

With one month to go, any unexpected event could help sway this close race for the White House.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

Where is this narrative coming from? Wasn't she 5 points ahead going into the debate and holding it after? I recall she was gaining and/or even a point or two ahead in the battleground states. I just read Florida might be in contention too.
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538 hasn’t moved much in the past few weeks:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

The economist one had a Trump pro surge
www.economist.com

Harris v Trump: 2024 presidential election prediction model

Our prediction model shows the chances Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have of winning the contest to be America's next president
www.economist.com www.economist.com

This one I think is a bit skewed as crypto bros are predominantly pro-Trump, but has been steadily moving towards Harris

polymarket.com

Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Predictions

2024 Presidential Election Predictions. Trust markets, not presidential polls. Live and accurate forecasts by the world's largest prediction market.
polymarket.com polymarket.com
 
belinmad said:
538 hasn’t moved much in the past few weeks:
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I've been following that going into the first Biden vs Trump debate. I have no idea which pollsters are biased and I watch NBC. I find the broadcast network polls are usually a week behind picking up sentiment versus what's been happening during the news cycles.

There was a pronounced shift to Trump after that first debate. Then again away from Trump after Kamala Harris took the candidacy but it now seems like she hit her plateau/high. It was interesting to read from last week's news cycle she was taking it easy and not trying to make mistakes (a la Starmer) because she is using Biden's campaign team. Someone must have woke up and signed her up to everything this week though.
 

"'People were dying by the hundreds,' she said. 'Everybody was scrambling to get these kits, the COVID test kits. Couldn't get them, couldn't get them anywhere.' 'And this guy who was president of the United States is sending them to Russia, to a murderous dictator, for his personal use.'"

This was 2020. That's applying post Feb 2022 events on a historical event. Russia was still in the international order at that time. Y'all went to their Olympics in 2014. Y'all went to their World Cup in 2018. Revisionist hyperbole.
 
www.bbc.com

India-Canada row: How ties hit rock bottom between the two countries

India and Canada expelled diplomats as tensions rose over last year's killing of a Sikh separatist in Canada.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

We'll kick out your high commissioner and diplomats! No, we'll kick your high commissioner and diplomats!

Let's stop issuing visas and just charge random foreign nationals on crimes against the state.

On a side note, my friend got her spouse out of India's hospital back home right before the tit for tat restarted.
 
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Kristi Noem and Donald Trump concert. Opening act: Kid Rock. Coming to a Trump 2024 rally near you.
 
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